Denver Broncos @

San Diego Chargers

Thu, Oct 13
5:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 103
Odds: San Diego Chargers +3, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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AFC West Thursday Night Trivia: Which team is giving up 4.0 YPR and a 50% Success Rate to opposing offenses, Denver or San Diego?  Either way, you are right, with both defenses allowing runners to churn necessary yards at will.  The Chargers are ranking 26th in success rate allowed, while the Broncos are right next to them, ranking 27th.  Last year the Broncos actually ranked 2nd in that same category, so maybe the front-7 losses of M.Jackson and D.Trevathan were impactful.  The good news for the Broncos is that their secondary is still elite, again ranking #1 in the league in success rate allowed and NYPP.  Look for the Broncos D to have more success against a poor San Diego rushing attack.  Offensively, while Paxton Lynch only threw for 4.6 net yards per pass in the last outing, Trevor Siemian still only has four NFL starts, so no substantive spread adjustments are made at the QB position.

San Diego (1-4) has ended every loss in regulation time by less than 4 points.  Philip Rivers is averaging 7.8 NYPP, good for 5th in the league on an adjusted basis.   However, the former 1st round pick at RB, Melvin ‘Cottonelle’ Gordon, continues to play soft as the Chargers are averaging only 3.3 adjusted yards per rush, good for 31st in a league with 32 teams.  Because of the weak rushing attack, turnovers (-4 fumble margin), and weak defense, this is a team that can not hold a lead and is going to depend on Rivers to win a game against the best pass defense in the league.  The advanced stats model leans to Denver -3 with no play on the Total (44) – Edit: Lean to the Under (44).

Look for a free potential 2H play by following @EVBettor (55%+ 2H plays are 4-0 this year).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Chargers
DEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.8 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.9% 38.3%
  • Sack Rate 8.4% 10.1%
  • Int Rate 2.7% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.3% 18.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 29.4% 30.5%
  • NYPP 6.5 5.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 29.2 28.8
  • RB YPR 3.4 3.6
  • Stuff Rate 23.4% 16.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.9% 50.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.3% 32.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.0




Game

  • All Snaps 64.0 65.6
  • Early Down Succ 49.9% 46.4%
  • Succ Rate 46.6% 43.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 32.9% 32.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 4.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 27.7
  • Run Ratio 45.6% 44.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.4 27.8
  • Game Control -0.1 0.1
 
  • Points 25.4 17.4
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