Game Analysis
AFC West Thursday Night Trivia: Which team is giving up 4.0 YPR and a 50% Success Rate to opposing offenses, Denver or San Diego? Either way, you are right, with both defenses allowing runners to churn necessary yards at will. The Chargers are ranking 26th in success rate allowed, while the Broncos are right next to them, ranking 27th. Last year the Broncos actually ranked 2nd in that same category, so maybe the front-7 losses of M.Jackson and D.Trevathan were impactful. The good news for the Broncos is that their secondary is still elite, again ranking #1 in the league in success rate allowed and NYPP. Look for the Broncos D to have more success against a poor San Diego rushing attack. Offensively, while Paxton Lynch only threw for 4.6 net yards per pass in the last outing, Trevor Siemian still only has four NFL starts, so no substantive spread adjustments are made at the QB position.
San Diego (1-4) has ended every loss in regulation time by less than 4 points. Philip Rivers is averaging 7.8 NYPP, good for 5th in the league on an adjusted basis. However, the former 1st round pick at RB, Melvin ‘Cottonelle’ Gordon, continues to play soft as the Chargers are averaging only 3.3 adjusted yards per rush, good for 31st in a league with 32 teams. Because of the weak rushing attack, turnovers (-4 fumble margin), and weak defense, this is a team that can not hold a lead and is going to depend on Rivers to win a game against the best pass defense in the league. The advanced stats model leans to Denver -3 with no play on the Total (44) – Edit: Lean to the Under (44).
Look for a free potential 2H play by following @EVBettor (55%+ 2H plays are 4-0 this year).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.8
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.9%
38.3%
-
Sack Rate
8.4%
10.1%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.3%
18.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.4%
30.5%
-
NYPP
6.5
5.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.2
28.8
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
23.4%
16.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.9%
50.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.3%
32.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
64.0
65.6
-
Early Down Succ
49.9%
46.4%
-
Succ Rate
46.6%
43.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.9%
32.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.9
27.7
-
Run Ratio
45.6%
44.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
27.8
-
Game Control
-0.1
0.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.8
44.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.8%
48.2%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
5.4%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
14.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.3%
38.5%
-
NYPP
7.8
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.2
23.8
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
24.4%
21.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.6%
50.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.7%
35.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
62.0
68.4
-
Early Down Succ
51.1%
50.3%
-
Succ Rate
48.7%
47.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.1%
37.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.7%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
27.6
-
Run Ratio
40.3%
34.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.0
30.6
-
Game Control
6.7
-6.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
CAR |
21 – 20 W |
-4.1 |
50.0% / 41.2% |
7.1% / 8.8% |
7.7% / 3.2% |
5.7 / 5.2 |
45.2% / 68.8% |
19.4% / 9.4% |
4.8 / 4.9 |
59 / 66 |
50.0% / 52.9% |
47.5% / 54.5% |
54.7% / 12.9% |
5.2 / 5.0 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
52.5% / 48.5% |
28.9 / 26.3 |
2 |
IND |
34 – 20 W |
4.5 |
58.8% / 37.8% |
2.9% / 11.1% |
3.0% / 2.5% |
7.8 / 3.8 |
54.8% / 50.0% |
22.6% / 4.5% |
4.3 / 3.8 |
65 / 67 |
59.3% / 42.0% |
56.9% / 41.8% |
30.3% / 28.7% |
6.2 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
47.7% / 32.8% |
24.8 / 26.7 |
3 |
@CIN |
29 – 17 W |
0.6 |
54.1% / 45.7% |
5.4% / 11.4% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
8.2 / 5.4 |
29.2% / 56.7% |
33.3% / 16.7% |
2.2 / 4.8 |
61 / 65 |
44.7% / 57.1% |
44.3% / 50.8% |
38.8% / 46.5% |
5.8 / 5.1 |
1.6% / 1.5% |
39.3% / 46.2% |
26.1 / 30.4 |
4 |
@TB |
27 – 7 W |
9.7 |
51.4% / 30.0% |
11.4% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 5.7% |
6.2 / 3.6 |
30.6% / 29.6% |
25.0% / 22.2% |
2.6 / 2.7 |
71 / 67 |
50.0% / 31.9% |
40.8% / 29.9% |
27.4% / 17.1% |
4.4 / 3.2 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
50.7% / 40.3% |
37.0 / 22.8 |
5 |
ATL |
16 – 23 L |
-11.1 |
40.0% / 36.7% |
15.0% / 6.7% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
4.6 / 8.3 |
50.0% / 45.5% |
16.7% / 27.3% |
3.5 / 3.7 |
64 / 63 |
45.5% / 47.8% |
43.8% / 41.3% |
13.5% / 56.8% |
4.2 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
37.5% / 52.4% |
25.0 / 32.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@KC |
27 – 33 L |
11.5 |
56.8% / 52.9% |
2.7% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
6.3 / 6.5 |
57.6% / 57.9% |
15.2% / 21.1% |
4.7 / 4.4 |
70 / 70 |
62.3% / 57.4% |
57.1% / 54.3% |
38.8% / 44.3% |
5.6 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.1% / 27.1% |
30.4 / 28.4 |
2 |
JAC |
38 – 14 W |
21.2 |
46.4% / 42.3% |
10.7% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 4.0% |
7.4 / 6.1 |
44.4% / 63.6% |
19.4% / 18.2% |
4.2 / 6.3 |
64 / 63 |
45.8% / 52.0% |
45.3% / 46.0% |
60.2% / 42.8% |
5.6 / 6.2 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
56.3% / 17.5% |
40.3 / 22.0 |
3 |
@IND |
22 – 26 L |
-1.8 |
56.1% / 53.8% |
4.9% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
7.8 / 8.1 |
35.3% / 38.5% |
17.6% / 34.6% |
2.2 / 3.6 |
58 / 65 |
53.2% / 50.9% |
50.0% / 47.7% |
40.2% / 36.8% |
6.1 / 6.3 |
5.2% / 1.5% |
29.3% / 40.0% |
28.6 / 28.1 |
4 |
NO |
34 – 35 L |
2.3 |
43.5% / 50.0% |
6.5% / 5.3% |
2.3% / 5.6% |
6.7 / 5.0 |
33.3% / 36.8% |
38.1% / 10.5% |
1.8 / 2.3 |
67 / 76 |
39.6% / 42.0% |
40.3% / 43.4% |
38.7% / 19.0% |
5.2 / 3.7 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
31.3% / 50.0% |
31.4 / 36.9 |
5 |
@OAK |
31 – 34 L |
0.1 |
56.3% / 41.9% |
6.3% / 7.0% |
6.7% / 2.5% |
11.0 / 7.0 |
42.1% / 56.0% |
31.6% / 24.0% |
3.8 / 3.6 |
51 / 68 |
54.8% / 49.1% |
51.0% / 47.1% |
62.4% / 44.0% |
8.3 / 5.7 |
3.9% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 36.8% |
29.3 / 37.5 |