Game Analysis
Lean – Denver (pick/-2) over OAKLAND
Joe Flacco is up next on the John Elway quarterback carousel and our numbers rate him 0.3 points better than last year’s starter Case Keenum. Rich Scangarello comes in at offensive coordinator and brings over the successful Kyle Shanahan outside zone play-action scheme. Another notable coaching staff change is bringing in Mike Munchak, who coached a top 10 offensive line 4 out of 5 years in Pittsburgh, including the top unit last season. Oakland’s pass rush is weak and I expect Flacco to have plenty of time to look downfield for deep passes. Emmanuel Sanders gained 2.12 yards per route run in 2018 (9th) and he should have no trouble with the Raiders bottom tier cornerbacks.
On the other side of the ball, Von Miller and Bradley Chubb should wreak havoc on patchwork Raiders offensive line after the pair finished 7th and 11th, respectively, in pass-rushing efficiency a season ago. Raiders’ left tackle Kolton Miller surrendered 16 sacks last year, most in the NFL, while guard Richie Incognito will serve a two-game suspension and guard Gabe Jackson is out with a knee injury. Denver’s Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris ranked 12th in yards allowed per cover snap last season and should shut down whomever he’s assigned to cover, as the Raiders have no real threat at wide receive with Antonio Brown no longer on the team (released on Sunday). Antonio Brown is worth 1.4 points given Oakland’s shallow depth at wide receiver while the market moved about 2 points. However, Jon Gruden’s offensive scheme does not emphasize outside receivers as we saw with the ineffectiveness and subsequent trading of Amari Cooper last season so we are going to only make a 1 point adjustment for the loss of Brown.
John Gruden loves to utilize his tight ends, targeting the position at the 6th-highest rate in 2018, but Darren Waller is a downgrade from Jared Cook and Kareem Jackson, a converted cornerback, is a solid safety in coverage. New Broncos head coach Vic Fangio brought Bryce Callahan with him from Chicago after the nickelback surrendered just 0.69 yards per slot cover snap (1st) and he should shut down anything else Gruden tries between the numbers – forcing Derek Carr to throw outside.
Our model favors Denver by a couple of points in the last home opener at the Oakland Coliseum, so there is no line value, but the Broncos matchup well on both offense and defense and I’ll lean with Denver at -2.5 or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.9
37.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.6%
46.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.7%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.9%
16.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.4%
41.7%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.6
26.8
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
24.3%
20.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.1%
44.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.4%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
63.9
-
Early Down Succ
50.0%
48.9%
-
Succ Rate
46.4%
46.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.5%
43.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
29.2
-
Run Ratio
39.2%
42.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
28.2
-
Game Control
-1.9
1.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.0
30.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.3%
47.8%
-
Sack Rate
8.6%
2.7%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.6%
20.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.5%
49.7%
-
NYPP
6.2
8.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.2
30.0
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
22.8%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.5%
45.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.3%
47.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
60.8
-
Early Down Succ
52.8%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
48.8%
47.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.8%
49.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
29.4
-
Run Ratio
38.8%
49.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.2
30.0
-
Game Control
-4.7
4.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
27 – 24 W |
1.9 |
57.5% /
35.9% |
2.5% /
15.4% |
7.7% /
6.1% |
8.1 /
6.2 |
50.0% /
18.8% |
21.9% /
25.0% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
72 /
55 |
58.3% /
34.9% |
54.2% /
30.9% |
53.2% /
63.7% |
6.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
44.4% /
29.1% |
26.6 /
27.4 |
| 2 |
OAK |
20 – 19 W |
-6.1 |
36.1% /
72.7% |
2.8% /
3.0% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
8.5 |
57.1% /
44.4% |
17.9% /
18.5% |
6.0 /
3.4 |
64 /
60 |
42.6% /
67.3% |
45.3% /
60.0% |
57.7% /
41.3% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
45.0% |
25.7 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
@BAL |
14 – 27 L |
-4.7 |
45.9% /
47.6% |
8.1% /
4.8% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
6.3 |
45.8% /
35.7% |
33.3% /
21.4% |
5.0 /
2.8 |
61 /
70 |
47.8% /
43.1% |
45.9% /
42.9% |
39.9% /
34.2% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
40.0% |
33.4 /
27.2 |
| 4 |
KC |
23 – 27 L |
1.9 |
32.4% /
50.0% |
10.8% /
2.2% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
6.6 |
72.7% /
69.2% |
18.2% /
15.4% |
7.2 /
5.5 |
59 /
72 |
53.3% /
59.3% |
47.5% /
56.9% |
59.7% /
48.9% |
6.5 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
36.1% |
24.2 /
30.6 |
| 5 |
@NYJ |
16 – 34 L |
-7.7 |
50.9% /
34.8% |
7.3% /
4.3% |
2.0% /
4.5% |
6.3 /
8.2 |
47.1% /
47.4% |
47.1% /
18.4% |
5.4 /
8.5 |
72 /
61 |
56.1% /
42.6% |
50.0% /
42.6% |
42.2% /
74.6% |
6.1 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
23.6% /
62.3% |
26.2 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
LA |
20 – 23 L |
-8.2 |
48.8% /
30.3% |
4.7% /
15.2% |
2.4% /
3.6% |
6.9 /
5.3 |
35.3% /
71.8% |
17.6% /
2.6% |
3.5 /
6.9 |
60 /
72 |
50.0% /
55.8% |
45.0% /
52.8% |
48.2% /
54.1% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.3% /
54.2% |
27.0 /
28.5 |
| 7 |
@ARI |
45 – 10 W |
24.9 |
45.8% /
40.0% |
8.3% /
13.3% |
4.5% /
7.7% |
7.4 /
3.4 |
35.5% /
33.3% |
25.8% /
28.6% |
4.2 /
3.3 |
55 /
66 |
42.5% /
41.2% |
40.0% /
37.9% |
53.1% /
32.3% |
5.6 /
3.4 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
56.4% /
31.8% |
37.0 /
23.5 |
| 8 |
@KC |
23 – 30 L |
-4.5 |
41.0% /
50.0% |
12.8% /
5.6% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
5.7 /
8.1 |
66.7% /
33.3% |
13.3% /
16.7% |
6.3 /
2.7 |
69 /
54 |
55.4% /
46.5% |
52.2% /
44.4% |
57.7% /
42.4% |
6.0 /
6.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
33.3% |
23.3 /
38.0 |
| 9 |
HOU |
17 – 19 L |
-3.8 |
47.7% /
53.6% |
4.5% /
14.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
6.9 |
35.0% /
39.4% |
40.0% /
30.3% |
3.8 /
3.0 |
64 /
61 |
43.8% /
51.1% |
43.8% /
45.9% |
38.5% /
10.7% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
54.1% |
22.5 /
31.4 |
| 11 |
@LAC |
23 – 22 W |
-3.5 |
45.5% /
47.8% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
6.6 /
8.3 |
57.9% /
38.5% |
15.8% /
23.1% |
5.7 /
3.7 |
52 /
72 |
56.4% /
40.4% |
50.0% /
44.4% |
45.5% /
52.8% |
6.3 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
36.1% |
32.7 /
19.7 |
| 12 |
PIT |
24 – 17 W |
1.7 |
46.7% /
51.7% |
6.7% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.1 /
7.5 |
39.1% /
56.3% |
17.4% /
6.3% |
5.4 /
4.7 |
53 /
76 |
50.0% /
54.1% |
43.4% /
52.6% |
46.4% /
36.1% |
5.8 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
2.6% |
43.4% /
21.1% |
25.8 /
25.1 |
| 13 |
@CIN |
24 – 10 W |
6.2 |
43.5% /
39.0% |
8.7% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.2 /
4.9 |
61.8% /
43.5% |
17.6% /
34.8% |
6.4 /
4.8 |
57 /
64 |
60.5% /
42.0% |
54.4% /
40.6% |
61.2% /
57.6% |
6.3 /
4.9 |
1.8% /
3.1% |
59.6% /
35.9% |
32.7 /
22.7 |
| 14 |
@SF |
14 – 20 L |
-10.6 |
38.6% /
47.2% |
4.5% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
3.9 /
8.5 |
40.7% /
43.3% |
25.9% /
13.3% |
3.8 /
2.8 |
71 /
66 |
43.8% /
52.0% |
39.4% /
45.5% |
25.9% /
54.0% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.0% /
45.5% |
25.4 /
24.3 |
| 15 |
CLE |
16 – 17 L |
-1.2 |
48.0% /
48.5% |
4.0% /
6.1% |
4.2% /
3.2% |
4.8 /
5.3 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
40.0% /
17.9% |
1.6 /
4.8 |
70 /
61 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
45.7% /
49.2% |
13.0% /
38.2% |
3.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
28.6% /
45.9% |
20.2 /
34.8 |
| 16 |
@OAK |
14 – 27 L |
-11.2 |
44.7% /
55.6% |
2.6% /
3.7% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
5.9 |
37.5% /
33.3% |
16.7% /
30.0% |
4.2 /
3.8 |
62 /
57 |
43.5% /
47.6% |
41.9% /
43.9% |
24.7% /
22.3% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
52.6% |
22.8 /
34.3 |
| 17 |
LAC |
9 – 23 L |
-5.1 |
40.8% /
44.0% |
2.0% /
4.0% |
2.1% /
8.3% |
5.9 /
6.4 |
48.0% /
50.0% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
74 /
55 |
46.6% /
52.4% |
43.2% /
47.3% |
29.7% /
26.4% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
4.1% /
3.6% |
33.8% /
54.5% |
26.9 /
30.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LA |
13 – 33 L |
-1.4 |
48.8% /
44.1% |
2.4% /
2.9% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
6.6 |
56.5% /
57.7% |
17.4% /
3.8% |
4.1 /
5.4 |
64 /
60 |
52.8% /
54.2% |
51.6% /
50.0% |
39.2% /
39.5% |
6.2 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.9% /
43.3% |
23.5 /
27.0 |
| 2 |
@DEN |
19 – 20 L |
6.1 |
72.7% /
36.1% |
3.0% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
8.5 /
6.0 |
44.4% /
57.1% |
18.5% /
17.9% |
3.4 /
6.0 |
60 /
64 |
67.3% /
42.6% |
60.0% /
45.3% |
41.3% /
57.7% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
43.8% |
23.9 /
25.7 |
| 3 |
@MIA |
20 – 28 L |
2.8 |
57.1% /
48.0% |
7.1% /
4.0% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
13.3 |
59.4% /
21.4% |
15.6% /
35.7% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
74 /
39 |
62.1% /
43.3% |
58.1% /
38.5% |
32.7% /
63.0% |
5.9 /
9.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.2% /
35.9% |
19.7 /
30.6 |
| 4 |
CLE |
45 – 42 W |
-2.1 |
52.5% /
37.2% |
4.9% /
4.7% |
3.4% /
4.9% |
7.0 /
6.5 |
34.5% /
45.2% |
37.9% /
22.6% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
90 /
74 |
52.1% /
42.1% |
46.7% /
40.5% |
44.2% /
57.9% |
6.3 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
32.2% /
41.9% |
34.9 /
26.1 |
| 5 |
@LAC |
10 – 26 L |
-9.9 |
47.2% /
64.3% |
8.3% /
3.6% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
11.9 |
61.5% /
29.0% |
23.1% /
32.3% |
3.2 /
2.5 |
49 /
59 |
55.6% /
45.5% |
51.0% /
45.8% |
59.5% /
43.7% |
5.9 /
7.0 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
26.5% /
52.5% |
21.2 /
35.3 |
| 6 |
SEA |
3 – 27 L |
-15.9 |
37.8% /
50.0% |
16.2% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
2.9 /
8.9 |
52.6% /
48.6% |
15.8% /
16.2% |
4.2 /
4.2 |
56 /
61 |
46.5% /
45.7% |
42.9% /
49.2% |
31.9% /
47.2% |
3.3 /
6.0 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
60.7% |
20.5 /
42.2 |
| 8 |
IND |
28 – 42 L |
-1.5 |
57.1% /
61.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
57.9% /
70.0% |
15.8% /
12.5% |
5.4 /
5.6 |
47 /
71 |
61.1% /
66.7% |
57.4% /
66.2% |
47.6% /
36.4% |
7.4 /
6.5 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
40.4% /
56.3% |
26.1 /
35.6 |
| 9 |
@SF |
3 – 34 L |
-16.4 |
31.3% /
59.1% |
25.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
11.9 |
39.1% /
31.3% |
21.7% /
34.4% |
4.4 /
4.5 |
55 /
54 |
39.0% /
45.0% |
34.5% /
42.6% |
44.6% /
74.6% |
4.4 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
59.3% |
23.6 /
28.9 |
| 10 |
LAC |
6 – 20 L |
-5.9 |
39.0% /
48.1% |
9.8% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
5.0 /
8.2 |
45.5% /
57.7% |
22.7% /
19.2% |
5.2 /
4.3 |
63 /
53 |
45.5% /
59.5% |
41.3% /
52.8% |
45.4% /
47.5% |
5.0 /
6.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
49.1% |
23.1 /
21.6 |
| 11 |
@ARI |
23 – 21 W |
1.4 |
45.7% /
33.3% |
11.4% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
10.0% |
4.9 /
6.1 |
60.6% /
41.9% |
15.2% /
32.3% |
4.6 /
5.0 |
68 /
52 |
60.8% /
42.5% |
52.9% /
38.5% |
47.4% /
43.3% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.5% /
59.6% |
29.9 /
29.6 |
| 12 |
@BAL |
17 – 34 L |
-3.9 |
29.7% /
42.3% |
8.1% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
52.6% /
72.1% |
21.1% /
11.6% |
3.5 /
5.6 |
56 /
69 |
42.5% /
63.0% |
37.5% /
60.9% |
44.6% /
61.1% |
4.4 /
6.0 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
62.3% |
25.5 /
24.8 |
| 13 |
KC |
33 – 40 L |
-10.1 |
48.8% /
55.3% |
7.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
7.8 |
67.9% /
53.3% |
17.9% /
16.7% |
6.1 /
5.8 |
69 /
68 |
52.6% /
57.7% |
56.5% /
54.4% |
49.8% /
52.9% |
6.4 /
6.9 |
4.3% /
1.5% |
40.6% /
44.1% |
31.7 /
29.9 |
| 14 |
PIT |
24 – 21 W |
0.3 |
57.9% /
59.0% |
10.5% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
7.9 /
7.7 |
36.0% /
31.6% |
36.0% /
26.3% |
2.2 /
2.1 |
63 /
58 |
52.1% /
50.0% |
49.2% /
50.0% |
33.9% /
22.1% |
5.6 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
39.7% /
32.8% |
28.2 /
29.5 |
| 15 |
@CIN |
16 – 30 L |
-8.9 |
39.5% /
26.5% |
11.6% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
43.8% /
36.6% |
31.3% /
29.3% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
59 /
75 |
47.7% /
25.5% |
40.7% /
32.0% |
54.2% /
58.2% |
5.0 /
3.9 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
27.1% /
54.7% |
28.8 /
37.8 |
| 16 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
11.2 |
55.6% /
44.7% |
3.7% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
5.9 /
5.3 |
33.3% /
37.5% |
30.0% /
16.7% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
57 /
62 |
47.6% /
43.5% |
43.9% /
41.9% |
22.3% /
24.7% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.6% /
38.7% |
34.3 /
22.8 |
| 17 |
@KC |
3 – 35 L |
-20.6 |
52.8% /
55.6% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
6.1% /
3.7% |
4.6 /
11.5 |
62.1% /
40.7% |
24.1% /
25.9% |
4.4 /
3.7 |
65 /
54 |
59.3% /
48.8% |
56.9% /
48.1% |
13.4% /
60.1% |
4.5 /
7.6 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
50.0% |
23.4 /
32.7 |
Denver Broncos
@ 
Oakland Raiders