Game Analysis

Lean – Denver (-7) over NY Jets

• Denver’s defense has a 45% pressure rate (2nd), and they will wreak havoc on New York’s offensive line, which ranks 28th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Broncos had a 43% blitz rate (5th-highest), and the best way to counteract their pass rush is to hit them with screens. Denver’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.84 EPA/target to opposing running backs.
• Jets RB Breece Hall leads running backs with a 58% receiving success rate.
• Broncos LG Ben Powers ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency, but he will likely be out this week, and the backup will struggle when lined up across from IDL Quinnen Williams, who has 14 pressures (14th).
• Denver WR Courtland Sutton caught 6 of 8 targets for 81 yards against CB Quinyon Mitchell, showing Bo Nix isn’t scared to target the opposing top CB. New York Sauce Gardner has a 15.7 coverage snap-to-reception ratio (11th) and will likely draw the Sutton assignment on Sunday.
• This game will be played in London, and our model favors the Broncos by 8.0 with a predicted total of 45.4 points and regular season neutral game favorites tend to cover the number (43-23-3 ATS).