Denver Broncos @

New York Jets

Thu, Oct 1
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: New York Jets PK, Total: 41

Game Analysis

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NY JETS (pick) vs Denver

Undrafted free agent Brett Rypien will get the start under center this week for the Broncos. This offense is gaining just 4.1 yards per play the last two weeks without starting QB Drew Lock and I’m not optimistic about Denver’s chances on Thursday night with a guy that couldn’t even make the initial 53-man roster.

The Jets have the 6th-highest quarterback hit percentage and rank 8th in blitz percentage by defensive backs. I expect Gregg Williams to continue aggressively blitzing players from the secondary this week just like Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay did in their games versus the Broncos. Denver surrendered 4 sacks to defensive backs over the past two weeks and this is one area the Jets could have success in.

The Jets are the only team in the NFL that has not run an offensive snap while leading in any game on the season. New York has trailed by double-digits nearly 50% more than the next closest team (Washington). However, I do believe the Jets will be able to put up more points on Thursday night. New York has been unlucky to score a touchdown on only a third of their trips to the Redzone, a number that should significantly improve given that they were 55% touchdowns in the Redzone last season.

Vic Fangio’s defenses have always been excellent at defending inside receivers and his nickelbacks are on pace for the fourth straight season ranked in top 10 in yards per cover snap allowed in the slot. Essang Bassey should neutralize Braxton Berrios in this matchup, but it looks like the Jets will have Jameison Crowder back this week to provide a secondary option for Sam Darnold.

Meanwhile, Denver’s injury situation is looking bleak. In addition to Lock, the Broncos look like they’ll also be without top WR Courtland Sutton and their top two right tackles on offense and DT Jurrell Casey, superstar DE Von Miller on the defensive line (13 combined Pro Bowls from those D-Linemen), and top CB AJ Bouye (injured reserve) on their defense.

Our model makes this game near pick, with a predicted total of 42.6 points, but the Jets do apply to a 70-24-1 ATS contrary situation based on how badly they’ve performed thus far.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Jets


  • Pass Plays 41.3 42.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 39.6% 49.8%
  • Sack Rate 9.5% 3.2%
  • Int Rate 2.6% 0.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.2% 13.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.5% 39.4%
  • NYPP 5.1 6.6


  • Rush Plays 22.0 27.0
  • RB YPR 3.7 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 27.5% 24.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.2% 48.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.6% 39.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.8


  • All Snaps 63.3 69.0
  • Early Down Succ 44.5% 53.0%
  • Succ Rate 41.9% 49.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.3% 40.3%
  • Yards Per Play 4.6 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.9 27.7
  • Run Ratio 34.6% 38.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.1 31.1
  • Game Control -6.4 6.4
  • Points 15.0 23.3
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