Game Analysis

Lean – Denver (+6.5) over MIAMI

· Sean Payton is 0-2 to start his tenure in Denver but his offense is getting a first down on 79% of their opportunities (3rd). The Broncos’  5.5 yards per play ranks 6th.

· Denver RB Samaje Perine has been effective playing the Alvin Kamara role in Payton’s offense. Perine leads all running backs with a 75% receiving success rate and he is averaging 0.39 EPA/target. Miami DC Vic Fangio’s defense gives up a ton underneath as the Dolphins have surrendered 6.3 yards per target to RBs. Miami linebacker Jerome Baker is being targeted every 5.7 cover snaps (6th-most) and he will have a tough game handling Perine as a receiver.

· Baker also grades as PFF’s 3rd-worst run defender, and the Dolphins are allowing a league-high 61% rush success rate. I expect Payton to give a heavy workload to his running backs on Sunday.

· Russell Wilson could face collapsing pockets on true pass sets this week. Broncos RT Mike McGlinchey ranks 2nd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will struggle against edge defender Jaelan Phillips, who leads the Dolphins with 7 pressures despite missing last week’s game.

· Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is calling the brilliant offense with his receivers quickly winning down the field. Tua Tagovailoa is on pace to be the first quarterback since tracking to average more than 10 air yards per attempt despite having an average time to throw of less than 2.3 seconds.

· The offense might have to take a new shape this week though. Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle got a concussion last Sunday night and he is worth 0.7 points according to our numbers. Waddle had a league-leading 0.64 EPA/target last season.

· Denver’s Pat Surtain ranked 2nd in PFF coverage grade last year and the All-Pro cornerback will likely shadow Tyreek Hill with plenty of help over the top if Waddle isn’t in uniform.

· Our model makes Miami a 7.6-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.0 points, but the matchups significantly favor Denver, as does a 41-14 ATS week 3 situation that plays on teams that are 0-2 ATS. The fair line on this game with all things considered is Dolphins by 5.6 points.