Game Analysis

Denver (-2.5) over LA RAMS

Lean – Under (36.5)

· Denver’s offense ran through running back Latavius Murray last week with backup Brett Rypien at the helm. Murray rushed for 130 yards and a touchdown.

· The Rams have surrendered a 49% rush success rate (26th) the last three weeks without Aaron Donald.

· Russell Wilson will be back under center on Sunday and WR Courtland Sutton returns as well. However, Sutton will be limited by Los Angeles CB Jalen Ramsey, who ranks 17th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is gaining 0.46 EPA/target (9th) but he has a difficult matchup on the inside against nickelback Troy Hill, who is allowing only 0.80 yards per slot cover snap.

· Wilson will need to find his running backs out of the backfield. Denver’s offense is targeting RBs on 23% of passes (3rd-most) and the Rams are allowing 6.6 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th).

· Los Angeles has managed to achieve a 7.3% sack rate over the last three weeks without Aaron Donald. Edge defender Leaonard Floyd had two sacks last Monday night, but the Broncos just got back starting right tackle Billy Turner.

· Center Brian Allen’s calf injury means seven of the Rams’ offensive starters to open the year have been ruled out.

· Baker Mayfield will try to move the ball with a ragtag group of receivers and a running game that has a league-low 34% rush success rate in 2022.

· Los Angeles WR Tutu Atwell will be shut down on the inside by nickelback K’Waun Williams, who is allowing a league-low 0.63 yards allowed per slot cover snap.

· Broncos CB Patrick Surtain ranks 2nd in coverage grade by PFF and he will contain wide receiver Van Jefferson.

· Denver interior defender Dre’Mont Jones ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency but he is out for the season. However, the loss is offset by the return of edge defender Randy Gregory.

· Denver’s defense had Gregory back on the field for the first game since week 4 last Sunday. Gregory has a 20% pressure rate this season.

· Our model favors the Broncos by 4.3 points with a predicted total of 34.9.