Game Analysis

LA CHARGERS (-2.5) vs Denver

• The Chargers’ defense is allowing a 45% success rate in the second half of the season (20th) after conceding just a 39% success rate in the first 8 weeks (4th) but I expect Los Angeles to hold Denver’s offense in check on Thursday night due to a scheme advantage.
• Sean Payton’s screens & swing pass offense is based on the quick game. Bo Nix had a 50% success rate and a 1.7-yard average depth of target on throws under 2.5 seconds last week compared to a 21% success rate averaging 9.5 air yards per attempt on throws over 2.5 seconds versus the Colts, but the Chargers’ defense is built to destroy the quick game. Los Angeles is allowing a league-low -0.32 EPA/target to opposing RBs and Denver’s running backs have a 20% target share (7th-highest).
• Broncos’ edge defender Nik Bonitto has 46 pressures (20th) and edge defender Jonathon Cooper ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency. However, the pair will be contained by Chargers RT Joe Alt and LT Rashawn Slater. Alt is conceding only 1.3 pressures per game (13th) and Slater ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Los Angeles interior offensive line is responsible for 55% of the pressures (25th) and they will struggle with interior defenders John Franklin-Myers and Zach Allen, who rank 2nd and 9th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Justin Herbert is playing on a bum ankle and he’d rather have pressure from the edge than the interior because stepping up into the pocket is more possible than rolling out. The only reprieve I see for Herbert is that Franklin-Myers might be out and he is worth a half point.
• Chargers WR Ladd McConkey is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (8th) and the rookie has a favorable matchup on the inside across from CB Ja’Quan McMillian, who is allowing 1.45 yards per cover snap in the slot, ranking 21st out of 23 qualifying nickelbacks.
• Our model favors the Chargers by just 0.3 points, with a predicted total of 41.6.