Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Denver (-5.5) over LAS VEGAS

• Bo Nix is averaging 6.4 yppp since the beginning of October when Sean Payton simplified the offense for his rookie quarterback, and he has a favorable matchup versus a Las Vegas defense surrendering a 65% open-target rate (31st) and is potentially without three starting cornerbacks.
• The Raiders are down to backup cornerbacks Decamerion Richardson, Darnay Holmes, and Sam Webb in practice with Jack Jones, Jakorian Bennett, and Nate Hobbs sidelined. I’m currently projecting the Raiders to have Jack Jones suit up for this game but the cluster loss at the position would be worth nearly 3 points if all three are out.
• Las Vegas CB Jakorian Bennett is allowing just 0.64 yards per cover snap (6th) and nickelback Nate Hobbs is allowing only 0.99 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th). Those two are worth 1.4 points by our metrics.
• Raiders’ backup cornerback Decamerion Richardson will struggle across from WR Courtland Sutton, who has a league-high 5 receptions with at least 20 air yards over the past four weeks.
• Nix will have time to look downfield for Sutton as Denver RT Mike McGlinchey ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency and he will limit edge defender Maxx Crosby, who has 37 pressures (17th).
• Nix is also protecting the ball with only a 1.4% turnover-worthy play rate (2nd).
• Gardner Minshew will struggle with his main receiving threats shut down. TE Brock Bowers is averaging 2.23 yards per route run (2nd) but the Broncos conceding a 43% success rate to opposing tight ends (3rd).
• Las Vegas WR Jakobi Meyers has a 57% success rate (15th) but he will line up across from CB Pat Surtain, who is conceding a league-low 0.44 yards per cover snap.
• The Broncos will not take the Raiders lightly. This is a massive game for Denver’s playoff chances increasing to 70% with a win but they would be on the outside looking in down to 40% with a loss.
• Our model favors the Broncos by 9.8 points, with a predicted total of 42.0 points.

Denver is a 1-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.