Game Analysis

LAS VEGAS (-2.5) vs Denver

· Jarrett Stidham averaged 6.2 yppp in his first start last week as the Broncos beat the Chargers.

· Stidham had just a 6.6-yard average depth of target and I expect it to rise on Sunday with the likely return of Denver WR Courtland Sutton, who has 11 receptions on passes with at least 20 air yards (9th).

· However, Stidham might not have ample time to find Sutton downfield. Broncos starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey suffered a chest injury last game and backup Cam Fleming would struggle across from Raiders’ edge rusher Maxx Crosby, who has 13.5 sacks (7th).

· Las Vegas is conceding only -0.13 EPA/rush (8th) and Denver’s offense will presumably not have 100 yards on the ground like they did last week.

· Raiders’ wide receiver Davante Adams had 21 targets last week, making him the most targeted receiver since 2015. However, Aidan O’Connell will look elsewhere with Adams blanketed by All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain. Las Vegas WR Jakobi Meyers has a 56% success rate (14th).

· Raiders RT Jermaine Eluemunor has conceded just 25 pressures (13th-fewest) but he could be out providing a favorable matchup for edge defender Jonathon Cooper, who ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Meanwhile, the Las Vegas interior offensive line is responsible for only 43.8% of the pressures (9th-fewest) and they will contain interior defender Zach Allen, whose 57 pressures rank 7th.

· All-Pro RB Josh Jacobs could suit up this week versus a Broncos defense allowing a 42.1% rush success rate (28th).

· Our model favors the Raiders by 0.8 points with a predicted total of 38.0 points.

I would lean with Denver at +3 -115 or better.