Game Analysis

Lean – Denver (+12.5) over KANSAS CITY

· The Broncos fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett this week due to the troubles on offense but Denver’s accomplishments on defense in 2022 are not being recognized as much as they should be. The Broncos would be 11-4 if they were able to get to 18 points in each of the games this year. Instead, they are 4-11.

· The net of Denver’s struggling offense and awesome defense is a positive 0.1 yards per play differential. Our model has the Broncos slightly below average with the current state of the roster but the market has them in the bottom quartile of the NFL after the dumpster fire 14-51 loss on Christmas day to the Rams.

· Teams in the first game following the firing of the head coach are 15-10 ATS since 2010.

· Denver nickelback K’Waun Williams is conceding a league-low 0.67 yards per cover snap in the slot and he will limit WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose success rate when targeted is 65% (2nd).

· Chiefs wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is averaging 0.31 EPA/target (26th) but he will be shut down by CB Patrick Surtain, who is 2nd in coverage grade by PFF.

· The Broncos will be without edge defender Randy Gregory, who has 18.5% pressure rate. Interior defender Dre’Mont Jones ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency and he will also be out. However, Gregory didn’t play in the meeting between these teams and Jones injured his hip labrum.

· Kansas City closed as 8.5-point favorites on the road in Denver three weeks ago Russell Wilson had a season-high three touchdown passes before getting a concussion.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 7.9 with a predicted total of 44.9 but I just don’t trust the Broncos enough given the situation to make them a play.