Game Analysis
KANSAS CITY (-9.5/-10) vs Denver
The Broncos carried the load for our Over Best Bet last Thursday night in their 45-10 win at Arizona but Denver’s offense now could be a tad overrated as their 5.6 yards per play didn’t match their 45 points scored in that game. The Broncos will certainly be hoping for Jared Velheer (questionable) to return as they will need him against Chiefs’ pass-rusher Dee Ford, who ranks 2nd in pass rush efficiency.
On the other side of the ball, Von Miller has 7.5 sacks this season (2nd), but he will likely be limited by Mitchell Schwartz, who’s 3rd among tackles in pass blocking efficiency. Miller did not record a sack against Schwartz the first time these teams met in week 4 but the Broncos were able to hold the Chiefs’ potent attack to their lowest scoring output of the season in that 23-27 loss. Denver’s 28th-rated rush defense is likely to struggle against a Chiefs ground game ranked 6th behind the shifty running of Kareem Hunt, who leads the league with 31 avoided tackles on running plays. Travis Kelce also has a favorable matchup against a Broncos defense conceding 9.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (28th).
Justin Houston, Eric Berry, and Mitch Morse are not practicing for the Chiefs as of Wednesday and the status of those players should be monitored as the week progresses along with Veldheer. We see no value in the side or total for this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.6
35.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.4%
50.1%
-
Sack Rate
6.8%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
3.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.4%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.4%
49.6%
-
NYPP
6.9
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.0
28.9
-
RB YPR
5.1
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
18.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.3%
44.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.5%
44.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.1
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
61.6
64.3
-
Early Down Succ
50.1%
49.2%
-
Succ Rate
48.5%
47.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.5%
49.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
29.1
-
Run Ratio
40.5%
45.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
27.1
-
Game Control
0.3
-0.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.7
42.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
59.8%
49.8%
-
Sack Rate
3.3%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.3%
21.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
52.1%
44.1%
-
NYPP
9.4
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.0
23.0
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
17.9%
18.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.5%
57.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.5%
42.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.7
65.0
-
Early Down Succ
55.7%
53.2%
-
Succ Rate
54.8%
53.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.9%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
7.2
6.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
28.0
-
Run Ratio
44.1%
35.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
24.9
-
Game Control
8.5
-8.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
27 – 24 W |
1.9 |
57.5% /
35.9% |
2.5% /
15.4% |
7.7% /
6.1% |
8.1 /
6.2 |
50.0% /
18.8% |
21.9% /
25.0% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
72 /
55 |
58.3% /
34.9% |
54.2% /
30.9% |
53.2% /
63.7% |
6.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
44.4% /
29.1% |
26.6 /
27.4 |
| 2 |
OAK |
20 – 19 W |
-6.1 |
36.1% /
72.7% |
2.8% /
3.0% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
8.5 |
57.1% /
44.4% |
17.9% /
18.5% |
6.0 /
3.4 |
64 /
60 |
42.6% /
67.3% |
45.3% /
60.0% |
57.7% /
41.3% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
45.0% |
25.7 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
@BAL |
14 – 27 L |
-4.7 |
45.9% /
48.8% |
8.1% /
4.9% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
6.5 |
45.8% /
32.3% |
33.3% /
19.4% |
5.0 /
2.6 |
61 /
72 |
47.8% /
43.1% |
45.9% /
41.7% |
39.9% /
33.9% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
43.1% |
33.4 /
27.2 |
| 4 |
KC |
23 – 27 L |
1.9 |
32.4% /
50.0% |
10.8% /
2.2% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
6.6 |
72.7% /
66.7% |
18.2% /
14.8% |
7.2 /
5.3 |
59 /
73 |
53.3% /
59.3% |
47.5% /
56.2% |
59.7% /
48.8% |
6.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
37.0% |
24.2 /
30.6 |
| 5 |
@NYJ |
16 – 34 L |
-7.7 |
71.8% /
72.7% |
10.3% /
9.1% |
2.9% /
10.0% |
8.8 /
17.2 |
47.1% /
46.2% |
47.1% /
17.9% |
5.4 /
8.3 |
56 /
50 |
56.1% /
42.6% |
64.3% /
52.0% |
42.2% /
74.5% |
7.8 /
10.3 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
30.4% /
78.0% |
26.2 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
LA |
20 – 23 L |
-8.2 |
48.8% /
30.3% |
4.7% /
15.2% |
2.4% /
3.6% |
6.9 /
5.3 |
33.3% /
68.3% |
16.7% /
2.4% |
3.4 /
6.6 |
61 /
74 |
50.0% /
55.8% |
44.3% /
51.4% |
48.0% /
53.8% |
5.9 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.5% /
55.4% |
27.0 /
28.5 |
| 7 |
@ARI |
45 – 10 W |
24.9 |
45.8% /
40.0% |
8.3% /
13.3% |
4.5% /
7.7% |
7.4 /
3.4 |
32.4% /
33.3% |
23.5% /
28.6% |
3.9 /
3.3 |
58 /
66 |
42.5% /
41.2% |
37.9% /
37.9% |
52.6% /
32.3% |
5.4 /
3.4 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
58.6% /
31.8% |
37.0 /
23.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
38 – 28 W |
9.6 |
46.4% /
55.8% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
9.1 /
8.0 |
59.3% /
59.1% |
25.9% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
55 /
74 |
55.6% /
61.3% |
52.7% /
56.8% |
66.0% /
45.1% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.1% /
29.7% |
29.1 /
20.1 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
42 – 37 W |
9.7 |
69.0% /
50.8% |
3.4% /
1.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.1 /
7.2 |
44.4% /
38.5% |
14.8% /
23.1% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
56 /
74 |
63.8% /
51.7% |
57.1% /
48.6% |
56.1% /
35.2% |
8.1 /
6.4 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
17.6% |
30.3 /
21.8 |
| 3 |
SF |
38 – 27 W |
13.8 |
55.0% /
44.1% |
5.0% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
51.7% |
16.7% /
24.1% |
2.6 /
6.1 |
70 /
63 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
47.6% |
28.2% /
42.9% |
5.5 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
46.0% |
26.8 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
27 – 23 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% /
32.4% |
2.2% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
6.1 |
66.7% /
72.7% |
14.8% /
18.2% |
5.3 /
7.2 |
73 /
59 |
59.3% /
53.3% |
56.2% /
47.5% |
48.8% /
59.7% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
30.6 /
24.2 |
| 5 |
JAC |
30 – 14 W |
14.4 |
87.0% /
73.7% |
4.3% /
13.2% |
9.1% /
12.1% |
13.0 /
10.6 |
28.1% /
70.6% |
25.0% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
5.9 |
55 /
55 |
45.5% /
48.4% |
52.7% /
72.7% |
49.3% /
49.8% |
7.7 /
9.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
58.2% /
30.9% |
21.3 /
28.3 |
| 6 |
@NE |
40 – 43 L |
-5.3 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.8 |
70.6% /
64.1% |
17.6% /
15.4% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
53 /
76 |
59.5% /
60.0% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
55.4% /
44.9% |
8.4 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
32.1% /
51.3% |
39.9 /
30.6 |
| 7 |
CIN |
45 – 10 W |
19.4 |
61.0% /
42.9% |
4.9% /
5.7% |
2.6% /
3.0% |
8.6 /
5.0 |
51.7% /
47.4% |
10.3% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
3.4 |
70 /
54 |
54.4% /
47.6% |
57.1% /
44.4% |
52.5% /
42.3% |
7.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
35.2% |
24.0 /
26.6 |
Denver Broncos
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs