Denver Broncos @

Indianapolis Colts

Thu, Dec 14
5:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 301
Odds: Indianapolis Colts +2.5, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (40.5) – INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs Denver

The Colts return home after a wild game in upstate New York where they didn’t even attempt a pass for the first 24 minutes of action. However, this week will likely be a complete contrast. Instead of 6 inches of snow completely altering players’ footing and the kicking game, Indianapolis will be playing in a dome. Instead of running the ball on nearly every play, I expect the Colts to be forced to air-it-out against a Broncos defense that is the best in the league defending the according to my numbers. While this game may look nothing like last week, it’s still worth noting teams coming off overtime are just 3-21 ATS playing on Thursday (if their opponent did not play an OT game last week). However, I also have a situation favoring Indy here, as late-season (final 3 weeks) road favorites are just 41-75-3 ATS after a comfortable home win of 3 possessions or more (i.e. 17 points or more).

Denver’s offense has struggled the last two weeks without offensive lineman Ronald Leary in the lineup (just 4.0 yards per play). Leary allowed just one sack in 11 games before being injured against the Raiders and the Broncos allowed 5 sacks the last two weeks – although I don’t expect the Colts to take advantage given their weak pass rush (just 20 sacks all season). I can make a case for either side here, but if you’re in a pool then I guess I’d rather have Denver -2.5 and I have a slight lean towards the under since my model projects just 38 total points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Colts
DEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.3 32.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 39.5% 42.8%
  • Sack Rate 8.1% 7.8%
  • Int Rate 3.7% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.0% 17.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.2% 41.3%
  • NYPP 5.3 6.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.8 27.8
  • RB YPR 3.5 2.9
  • Stuff Rate 22.4% 32.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.4% 33.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 27.0% 31.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.1




Game

  • All Snaps 67.1 60.0
  • Early Down Succ 39.4% 42.5%
  • Succ Rate 38.8% 38.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.1% 40.2%
  • Yards Per Play 4.6 4.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 28.9
  • Run Ratio 41.1% 46.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.7 33.6
  • Game Control -4.3 4.3
 
  • Points 17.6 24.2
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