Game Analysis
Lean – Under (40.5) – INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) vs Denver
The Colts return home after a wild game in upstate New York where they didn’t even attempt a pass for the first 24 minutes of action. However, this week will likely be a complete contrast. Instead of 6 inches of snow completely altering players’ footing and the kicking game, Indianapolis will be playing in a dome. Instead of running the ball on nearly every play, I expect the Colts to be forced to air-it-out against a Broncos defense that is the best in the league defending the according to my numbers. While this game may look nothing like last week, it’s still worth noting teams coming off overtime are just 3-21 ATS playing on Thursday (if their opponent did not play an OT game last week). However, I also have a situation favoring Indy here, as late-season (final 3 weeks) road favorites are just 41-75-3 ATS after a comfortable home win of 3 possessions or more (i.e. 17 points or more).
Denver’s offense has struggled the last two weeks without offensive lineman Ronald Leary in the lineup (just 4.0 yards per play). Leary allowed just one sack in 11 games before being injured against the Raiders and the Broncos allowed 5 sacks the last two weeks – although I don’t expect the Colts to take advantage given their weak pass rush (just 20 sacks all season). I can make a case for either side here, but if you’re in a pool then I guess I’d rather have Denver -2.5 and I have a slight lean towards the under since my model projects just 38 total points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.3
32.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.5%
42.8%
-
Sack Rate
8.1%
7.8%
-
Int Rate
3.7%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
17.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.2%
41.3%
-
NYPP
5.3
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.8
27.8
-
RB YPR
3.5
2.9
-
Stuff Rate
22.4%
32.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.4%
33.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
27.0%
31.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.1
Game
-
All Snaps
67.1
60.0
-
Early Down Succ
39.4%
42.5%
-
Succ Rate
38.8%
38.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.1%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.9
28.9
-
Run Ratio
41.1%
46.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.7
33.6
-
Game Control
-4.3
4.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.4
34.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.9%
47.5%
-
Sack Rate
11.1%
4.3%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.3%
22.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.2%
49.2%
-
NYPP
5.6
7.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.0
30.6
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
24.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.5%
38.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.7%
43.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
41.2%
43.1%
-
Succ Rate
39.7%
42.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.8%
48.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
28.8
-
Run Ratio
45.7%
47.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.8
27.3
-
Game Control
-2.3
2.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LAC |
24 – 21 W |
6.6 |
50.0% /
47.1% |
12.5% /
2.9% |
3.6% /
3.0% |
5.7 /
5.4 |
40.5% /
27.3% |
18.9% /
31.8% |
3.8 /
2.9 |
69 /
56 |
44.2% /
42.9% |
44.9% /
39.3% |
47.8% /
27.7% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
53.6% /
39.3% |
31.8 /
31.6 |
| 2 |
DAL |
42 – 17 W |
11.9 |
64.7% /
42.3% |
5.9% /
3.8% |
3.1% /
4.0% |
5.9 /
4.4 |
52.5% /
28.6% |
17.5% /
42.9% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
74 /
66 |
59.6% /
44.7% |
58.1% /
39.4% |
30.7% /
14.6% |
5.1 /
4.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
54.1% /
21.2% |
26.9 /
37.6 |
| 3 |
@BUF |
16 – 26 L |
-1.6 |
37.2% /
50.0% |
7.0% /
13.3% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.6 |
39.1% /
27.0% |
26.1% /
27.0% |
4.8 /
2.1 |
66 /
67 |
38.0% /
42.2% |
37.9% /
37.3% |
59.3% /
44.4% |
5.5 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
55.2% |
23.7 /
39.8 |
| 4 |
OAK |
16 – 10 W |
6.7 |
33.3% /
36.8% |
13.3% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.2 /
6.1 |
31.4% /
33.3% |
22.9% /
46.7% |
4.2 /
1.6 |
65 /
53 |
36.4% /
44.7% |
32.3% /
35.8% |
39.5% /
52.8% |
4.6 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.8% /
28.3% |
28.8 /
24.7 |
| 6 |
NYG |
10 – 23 L |
-10.4 |
35.1% /
40.9% |
7.0% /
13.6% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
5.4 |
44.4% /
18.8% |
11.1% /
40.6% |
2.6 /
4.6 |
75 /
54 |
40.0% /
27.5% |
37.3% /
27.8% |
47.0% /
53.4% |
5.5 /
4.9 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
24.0% /
59.3% |
27.0 /
31.2 |
| 7 |
@LAC |
0 – 21 L |
-11.1 |
35.0% /
34.5% |
12.5% /
10.3% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.6 /
5.6 |
21.1% /
19.2% |
21.1% /
42.3% |
3.6 /
3.1 |
59 /
55 |
32.6% /
28.6% |
30.5% /
27.3% |
13.5% /
44.6% |
4.3 /
4.4 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
32.2% /
47.3% |
23.2 /
29.8 |
| 8 |
@KC |
19 – 29 L |
-11.9 |
41.0% /
36.4% |
7.7% /
3.0% |
8.3% /
3.1% |
4.8 /
6.0 |
61.3% /
25.9% |
12.9% /
37.0% |
5.7 /
3.0 |
70 /
60 |
53.6% /
37.0% |
50.0% /
31.7% |
39.0% /
52.0% |
5.2 /
4.6 |
2.9% /
1.7% |
44.3% /
45.0% |
23.9 /
40.0 |
| 9 |
@PHI |
23 – 51 L |
-19.2 |
36.6% /
50.0% |
7.3% /
6.7% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.4 |
36.8% /
47.4% |
31.6% /
26.3% |
1.8 /
5.2 |
60 /
68 |
39.1% /
53.1% |
36.7% /
48.5% |
27.4% /
52.9% |
3.8 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
31.7% /
55.9% |
26.1 /
37.7 |
| 10 |
NE |
16 – 41 L |
-14.7 |
39.4% /
65.8% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.8 |
44.8% /
55.2% |
13.8% /
13.8% |
4.1 /
3.4 |
62 /
67 |
40.0% /
67.9% |
41.9% /
61.2% |
46.2% /
32.1% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
43.3% |
23.7 /
37.9 |
| 11 |
CIN |
17 – 20 L |
-4.4 |
42.2% /
37.0% |
6.7% /
7.4% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
5.2 |
50.0% /
32.1% |
23.5% /
35.7% |
3.3 /
1.8 |
79 /
55 |
41.1% /
33.3% |
45.6% /
34.5% |
15.8% /
30.2% |
4.3 /
3.5 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
43.0% /
50.9% |
31.5 /
33.2 |
| 12 |
@OAK |
14 – 21 L |
-9.5 |
30.0% /
50.0% |
12.5% /
7.7% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
9.4 |
17.6% /
40.0% |
29.4% /
22.5% |
3.5 /
2.7 |
57 /
66 |
21.4% /
50.0% |
26.3% /
43.9% |
42.0% /
50.7% |
3.8 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
29.8% /
60.6% |
21.7 /
32.7 |
| 13 |
@MIA |
9 – 35 L |
-12.2 |
29.5% /
41.2% |
6.8% /
5.9% |
7.3% /
6.3% |
3.8 /
6.5 |
34.8% /
43.3% |
26.1% /
23.3% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
67 /
64 |
37.7% /
46.9% |
31.3% /
42.2% |
60.7% /
56.1% |
4.0 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
34.3% /
46.9% |
17.9 /
40.2 |
| 14 |
NYJ |
23 – 0 W |
13.5 |
39.4% /
24.0% |
6.1% /
16.0% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
5.7 /
1.6 |
25.0% /
33.3% |
36.1% /
33.3% |
2.4 /
2.5 |
69 /
49 |
28.6% /
33.3% |
31.9% /
28.6% |
26.3% /
11.9% |
4.0 /
2.1 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
52.2% /
49.0% |
40.5 /
21.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LA |
9 – 46 L |
-21.3 |
28.0% /
54.8% |
16.0% /
3.2% |
9.5% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
10.0 |
32.0% /
22.5% |
28.0% /
22.5% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
50 /
71 |
40.5% /
43.5% |
30.0% /
36.6% |
81.4% /
52.7% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
2.0% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
56.3% |
23.1 /
35.8 |
| 2 |
ARI |
13 – 16 L |
6.3 |
41.5% /
40.0% |
9.8% /
10.0% |
2.7% /
2.8% |
4.6 /
7.7 |
34.5% /
34.6% |
24.1% /
11.5% |
2.6 /
3.2 |
70 /
66 |
36.5% /
39.6% |
38.6% /
37.9% |
16.5% /
63.6% |
3.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
39.4% |
24.5 /
29.6 |
| 3 |
CLE |
31 – 28 W |
9.2 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
11.1% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
6.4% |
9.0 /
4.9 |
27.0% /
57.1% |
37.8% /
19.0% |
2.5 /
5.3 |
64 /
69 |
24.4% /
42.9% |
29.7% /
42.0% |
63.7% /
53.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
30.4% |
29.6 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
@SEA |
18 – 46 L |
-7.0 |
37.5% /
65.5% |
9.4% /
10.3% |
3.4% /
7.7% |
4.3 /
9.8 |
52.0% /
42.4% |
8.0% /
24.2% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
57 /
62 |
44.2% /
47.8% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
30.0% /
67.7% |
4.2 /
7.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
28.3 /
20.2 |
| 5 |
SF |
26 – 23 W |
3.3 |
44.7% /
50.0% |
10.5% /
4.2% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
7.0 |
32.4% /
31.8% |
32.4% /
31.8% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
75 /
70 |
38.2% /
46.3% |
38.7% /
44.3% |
58.1% /
37.3% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
31.4% |
28.8 /
17.5 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
22 – 36 L |
1.2 |
51.4% /
57.6% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.7 /
9.2 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
57 /
68 |
53.2% /
51.9% |
47.4% /
50.0% |
22.6% /
42.2% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
51.5% |
26.5 /
27.4 |
| 7 |
JAC |
0 – 27 L |
-18.7 |
34.0% /
53.6% |
21.3% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.9 /
11.8 |
60.0% /
44.7% |
20.0% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
67 /
66 |
46.9% /
49.0% |
41.8% /
48.5% |
41.4% /
61.8% |
3.5 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
29.9% /
57.6% |
28.0 /
20.1 |
| 8 |
@CIN |
23 – 24 L |
0.5 |
39.5% /
43.8% |
9.3% /
9.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
60.7% /
30.4% |
10.7% /
30.4% |
4.1 /
2.6 |
71 /
55 |
48.1% /
40.0% |
47.9% /
38.2% |
18.1% /
46.0% |
4.7 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
39.4% /
41.8% |
31.4 /
32.7 |
| 9 |
@HOU |
20 – 14 W |
6.3 |
45.5% /
28.3% |
9.1% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
4.2 |
44.8% /
38.1% |
20.7% /
14.3% |
3.2 /
4.5 |
62 /
67 |
51.1% /
32.7% |
45.2% /
31.3% |
55.6% /
31.6% |
6.0 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
46.8% /
31.3% |
19.1 /
24.2 |
| 10 |
PIT |
17 – 20 L |
5.1 |
40.7% /
50.0% |
11.1% /
3.1% |
4.2% /
3.2% |
7.3 /
7.1 |
36.7% /
36.7% |
33.3% /
36.7% |
2.4 /
2.9 |
57 /
62 |
40.0% /
44.9% |
38.6% /
43.5% |
45.1% /
38.9% |
4.7 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.6% /
48.4% |
21.6 /
31.7 |
| 12 |
TEN |
16 – 20 L |
0.5 |
37.8% /
48.0% |
21.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
4.5 /
7.4 |
37.5% /
40.0% |
20.8% /
26.7% |
3.7 /
3.1 |
61 /
55 |
36.2% /
48.8% |
37.7% /
43.6% |
28.3% /
35.6% |
4.2 /
5.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
54.5% |
29.8 /
31.1 |
| 13 |
@JAC |
10 – 30 L |
-11.5 |
44.7% /
56.8% |
10.5% /
2.7% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
8.9 |
50.0% /
40.7% |
15.4% /
33.3% |
5.4 /
3.6 |
64 /
64 |
46.7% /
45.8% |
46.9% /
50.0% |
39.3% /
39.9% |
4.5 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.6% /
42.2% |
21.3 /
30.9 |
| 14 |
@BUF |
7 – 13 L |
-3.4 |
27.3% /
33.3% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
2.9 /
6.1 |
31.9% /
32.7% |
29.8% /
25.0% |
3.5 /
4.4 |
69 /
67 |
29.8% /
26.7% |
30.4% /
32.8% |
17.5% /
53.4% |
3.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
68.1% /
77.6% |
35.8 /
24.7 |
Denver Broncos
@ 
Indianapolis Colts