Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **DETROIT (-4) over Denver

· The Lions surrendered 5 sacks last week against the Bears, but I expect the protection to be sorted out for this game likely getting back C Frank Ragnow, who ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto leads Denver’s defense with 7.0 sacks, but he is likely out for this game.

· Jared Goff should be kept clean and he has options against Denver’s flaws on defense. Detroit TE Sam LaPorta is averaging 0.32 EPA/target (5th) and the Broncos are surrendering a 61% success rate to tight ends (29th).

· Denver’s defense is strong at outside cornerback with Pat Surtain and Fabian Moreau. Consequently, nickelback Ja’Quan McMillian is being targeted every 5.6 cover snap in the slot (7th-most). McMillian will struggle on the inside versus Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is averaging 2.25 yards per route run in the slot (5th).

· The Broncos are allowing a 46% pass success rate to running backs (25th) and Goff will get the screen game going to RB Jahmyr Gibbs, who has a 44% receiving success rate (3rd).

· Detroit’s offense ranks 5th in EPA/rush and they will gash a Denver defense that has surrendered a 42.6% rush success rate (27th).

· Denver have a 40.6% rush success rate (10th) but Broncos’ run game will be limited by a Detroit defense just allowing -0.15 EPA/rush (5th).

· Denver WR Jerry Jeudy has a 12.9-yard average depth of target in the slot (2nd-highest) but he will be contained by nickelback Brian Branch, who is conceding only 0.86 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th).

· Russell Wilson won’t have clean pockets to look downfield anyway as right tackle Mike McGlinchey ranks 53rd in pass blocking efficiency out of 57 qualifying tackles and he will line up across from Detroit edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, who has 76 pressures (3rd).

· Our model favors the Lions by 5.7 points, with a predicted total of 49.6 points, and the matchups are extremely favorable, as is the situation. Denver applies to a 28-79-3 ATS letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over a divisional rival and teams playing their 3rd consecutive road game are just 126-165-2 ATS going back decades, including 47-90 ATS if they won and covered the spread the spread in their previous game. A 218-132-6 Under angle applies to this game, which is why I don’t Lean Over.

Detroit is a 2-Star Best Bet at -4.5 or less and 1-Star up to -5.5 points.