Game Analysis

Lean – Over (49.5) – CINCINNATI (-3) vs Denver

• The Broncos put Justin Herbert under pressure on 20 of his 37 dropbacks last week and Joe Burrow was constantly under pressure on 42% of his dropbacks last week, as the Bengals were without both starting tackles once RT Amarius Mims went down.
• However, I expect Cincinnati’s offensive line to hold up on Sunday because Mims should be back on the field, and starting LT Orlando Brown will likely suit up for just his second game since week 9. Brown has conceded only 13 pressures on 307 pass-blocking snaps while Bengals backup LT Cody Ford has allowed 32 pressures on 330 pass-blocking snaps.
• However, Broncos interior defenders John Franklin-Myers and Zach Allen rank 1st and 7th respectively in pass rushing efficiency. The pair could cave in the pocket as guards Alex Cappa and Cordell Volson have combined to surrender 80 pressures, the most by a tandem in the NFL.
• Burrow will have to get the ball out quickly to WR Ja’Marr Chase, who has a league-high 23 forced missed tackles after the catch. However, Denver’s defense might shadow Chase with CB Pat Surtain, who is allowing 0.49 yards per cover snap (1st).
• The Broncos RBs have a 21% target share (5th-highest) and Sean Payton’s screen game has a favorable matchup as Bengals LB Logan Wilson is sidelined and Cincinnati’s defense is allowing a 51% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (25th).
• Bo Nix should also have time to look downfield on Sunday. Denver LT Garett Bolles ranks 4th in pass-blocking efficiency and he will limit edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who has 72 pressures (2nd).
• Broncos WR Courtland Sutton has 12 receptions with at least 20 air yards (5th) and he has a favorable matchup on deep passes lined up across from CB Cam Taylor-Britt, who is surrendering 1.33 yards per cover snap ranking 60th out of 69 qualifying cornerbacks.
• Our model favors the Bengals by 3.6 points, with a predicted total of 51.6 points.