Game Analysis
Denver (-5) vs CINCINNATI
The Bengals were 2.5-point favorites just one week ago on the advanced spread but the market has moved a full touchdown since due to injuries – and our model shows that might not be enough. Cincinnati’s offense is averaging more than a yard per play lower since Tyler Eifert went out in week 4 and now they’ll be without Andy Dalton. Our quarterback model makes a 4 point adjustment from Dalton to Jeff Driskel, who’s thrown for 6.1 yards per pass play in limited action this year. The rookie quarterback will be aided by the return of A.J. Green, as the Pro Bowl wide receiver is gaining 2.45 yards per route run (7th), but Driskel probably won’t have too much time in the pocket with left tackle Cordy Glenn likely out again. Backups Cedric Ogbuehi or Jake Fisher stand little chance against standout rookie Bradley Chubb, who ranks 10th in pass rush efficiency.
Defensively, it looks like Dre Kirkpatrick, surrendering just 0.96 yards per cover snap (23rd), will miss this game along with Carl Lawson and Nick Vigil. Opposing running backs have been killing the Bengals lately, averaging more than 200 yards from scrimmage in their 3-game losing streak as they deal with linebacker injuries. Denver’s 4th-rated ground game should be effective and I expect Philip Lindsay to be a threat catching passes out of the backfield as well.
Our model favors the Broncos by 6.4 but Denver applies to a negative 20-53-2 ATS situation that plays against road teams off consecutive upset wins.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
38.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.4%
49.1%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
8.5%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.9%
17.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.4%
48.1%
-
NYPP
6.4
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.6
27.2
-
RB YPR
5.0
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
23.5%
19.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.6%
42.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.1%
36.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.1
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
61.6
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
50.8%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
47.7%
46.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.3%
46.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
29.2
-
Run Ratio
41.6%
42.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
27.0
-
Game Control
-1.0
1.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.2
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.5%
55.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.3%
39.2%
-
NYPP
6.4
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.4
31.8
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
17.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.2%
50.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
53.8%
42.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
58.5
68.1
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
53.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.4%
53.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.2%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
29.3
-
Run Ratio
36.7%
47.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
29.0
-
Game Control
-4.8
4.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
SEA |
27 – 24 W |
1.9 |
57.5% / 35.9% |
2.5% / 15.4% |
7.7% / 6.1% |
8.1 / 6.2 |
50.0% / 18.8% |
21.9% / 25.0% |
4.6 / 4.0 |
72 / 55 |
58.3% / 34.9% |
54.2% / 30.9% |
53.2% / 63.7% |
6.5 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
44.4% / 29.1% |
26.6 / 27.4 |
2 |
OAK |
20 – 19 W |
-6.1 |
36.1% / 72.7% |
2.8% / 3.0% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 8.5 |
57.1% / 44.4% |
17.9% / 18.5% |
6.0 / 3.4 |
64 / 60 |
42.6% / 67.3% |
45.3% / 60.0% |
57.7% / 41.3% |
6.0 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.8% / 45.0% |
25.7 / 23.9 |
3 |
@BAL |
14 – 27 L |
-4.7 |
45.9% / 48.8% |
8.1% / 4.9% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 6.5 |
45.8% / 32.3% |
33.3% / 19.4% |
5.0 / 2.6 |
61 / 72 |
47.8% / 43.1% |
45.9% / 41.7% |
39.9% / 33.9% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 43.1% |
33.4 / 27.2 |
4 |
KC |
23 – 27 L |
1.9 |
32.4% / 50.0% |
10.8% / 2.2% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 6.6 |
72.7% / 66.7% |
18.2% / 14.8% |
7.2 / 5.3 |
59 / 73 |
53.3% / 59.3% |
47.5% / 56.2% |
59.7% / 48.8% |
6.5 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 37.0% |
24.2 / 30.6 |
5 |
@NYJ |
16 – 34 L |
-7.7 |
71.8% / 72.7% |
10.3% / 9.1% |
2.9% / 10.0% |
8.8 / 17.2 |
47.1% / 46.2% |
47.1% / 17.9% |
5.4 / 8.3 |
56 / 50 |
56.1% / 42.6% |
64.3% / 52.0% |
42.2% / 74.5% |
7.8 / 10.3 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
30.4% / 78.0% |
26.2 / 28.8 |
6 |
LA |
20 – 23 L |
-8.2 |
48.8% / 30.3% |
4.7% / 15.2% |
2.4% / 3.6% |
6.9 / 5.3 |
33.3% / 68.3% |
16.7% / 2.4% |
3.4 / 6.6 |
61 / 74 |
50.0% / 55.8% |
44.3% / 51.4% |
48.0% / 53.8% |
5.9 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
29.5% / 55.4% |
27.0 / 28.5 |
7 |
@ARI |
45 – 10 W |
24.9 |
45.8% / 40.0% |
8.3% / 13.3% |
4.5% / 7.7% |
7.4 / 3.4 |
32.4% / 33.3% |
23.5% / 28.6% |
3.9 / 3.3 |
58 / 66 |
42.5% / 41.2% |
37.9% / 37.9% |
52.6% / 32.3% |
5.4 / 3.4 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
58.6% / 31.8% |
37.0 / 23.5 |
8 |
@KC |
23 – 30 L |
-4.5 |
41.0% / 50.0% |
12.8% / 5.6% |
2.9% / 2.9% |
5.7 / 8.1 |
66.7% / 33.3% |
13.3% / 16.7% |
6.3 / 2.7 |
69 / 54 |
55.4% / 46.5% |
52.2% / 44.4% |
57.7% / 42.4% |
6.0 / 6.3 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
43.5% / 33.3% |
23.3 / 38.0 |
9 |
HOU |
17 – 19 L |
-3.8 |
47.7% / 53.6% |
4.5% / 14.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 6.9 |
35.0% / 39.4% |
40.0% / 30.3% |
3.8 / 3.0 |
64 / 61 |
43.8% / 51.1% |
43.8% / 45.9% |
38.5% / 10.7% |
5.4 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
31.3% / 54.1% |
22.5 / 31.4 |
11 |
@LAC |
23 – 22 W |
-3.5 |
46.9% / 47.8% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 4.7% |
6.8 / 8.3 |
57.9% / 38.5% |
15.8% / 23.1% |
5.7 / 3.7 |
51 / 72 |
56.4% / 40.4% |
51.0% / 44.4% |
45.5% / 52.8% |
6.4 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 36.1% |
32.7 / 19.7 |
12 |
PIT |
24 – 17 W |
1.7 |
46.7% / 51.7% |
6.7% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
6.1 / 7.5 |
34.6% / 56.3% |
15.4% / 6.3% |
4.9 / 4.7 |
56 / 76 |
50.0% / 54.1% |
41.1% / 52.6% |
46.0% / 36.1% |
5.6 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 2.6% |
46.4% / 21.1% |
25.8 / 25.1 |
13 |
@CIN |
24 – 10 W |
6.2 |
43.5% / 38.1% |
8.7% / 9.5% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
6.2 / 4.8 |
60.0% / 43.5% |
17.1% / 34.8% |
6.3 / 4.8 |
58 / 65 |
60.5% / 42.0% |
53.4% / 40.0% |
61.0% / 57.6% |
6.2 / 4.8 |
1.7% / 3.1% |
60.3% / 35.4% |
32.7 / 22.7 |
14 |
@SF |
14 – 20 L |
-10.6 |
38.6% / 47.2% |
4.5% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
3.9 / 8.5 |
39.3% / 36.1% |
25.0% / 11.1% |
3.7 / 2.4 |
72 / 72 |
43.8% / 52.0% |
38.9% / 41.7% |
25.8% / 53.4% |
3.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.9% / 50.0% |
25.4 / 24.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@IND |
34 – 23 W |
-3.1 |
60.0% / 56.4% |
6.7% / 3.6% |
3.6% / 1.9% |
7.6 / 5.5 |
65.0% / 54.5% |
20.0% / 22.7% |
5.1 / 3.4 |
50 / 77 |
64.3% / 53.3% |
62.0% / 55.8% |
38.8% / 10.0% |
6.6 / 4.9 |
2.0% / 1.3% |
40.0% / 28.6% |
26.2 / 33.4 |
2 |
BAL |
34 – 23 W |
11.8 |
45.2% / 49.1% |
0.0% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
6.3 / 6.3 |
42.9% / 50.0% |
28.6% / 18.2% |
3.9 / 3.0 |
70 / 79 |
45.6% / 50.0% |
44.3% / 49.4% |
43.7% / 35.5% |
5.3 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
40.0% / 27.8% |
36.3 / 22.6 |
3 |
@CAR |
21 – 31 L |
-4.5 |
53.2% / 40.0% |
4.3% / 4.0% |
8.9% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 5.9 |
53.8% / 47.6% |
23.1% / 21.4% |
5.1 / 5.5 |
60 / 67 |
56.0% / 46.2% |
53.3% / 44.8% |
58.1% / 54.8% |
6.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
21.7% / 62.7% |
23.5 / 30.5 |
4 |
@ATL |
37 – 36 W |
0.5 |
52.3% / 61.9% |
6.8% / 7.1% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 9.6 |
56.5% / 45.8% |
8.7% / 12.5% |
4.3 / 3.8 |
67 / 66 |
50.9% / 52.0% |
53.7% / 56.1% |
33.4% / 37.2% |
6.1 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.3% / 36.4% |
33.0 / 32.4 |
5 |
MIA |
27 – 17 W |
-4.6 |
68.2% / 77.3% |
9.1% / 13.6% |
5.0% / 10.5% |
10.4 / 7.7 |
29.6% / 45.5% |
25.9% / 13.6% |
3.9 / 5.8 |
49 / 44 |
45.7% / 48.9% |
46.9% / 61.4% |
52.9% / 25.3% |
6.8 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 2.3% |
55.1% / 50.0% |
22.9 / 25.5 |
6 |
PIT |
21 – 28 L |
-0.7 |
53.3% / 50.0% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 8.0 |
46.2% / 40.9% |
30.8% / 22.7% |
4.8 / 5.1 |
58 / 68 |
52.2% / 46.2% |
51.7% / 47.1% |
25.1% / 60.2% |
4.7 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
22.4% / 32.4% |
30.7 / 19.8 |
7 |
@KC |
10 – 45 L |
-19.4 |
42.9% / 61.0% |
5.7% / 4.9% |
3.0% / 2.6% |
5.0 / 8.6 |
47.4% / 51.7% |
26.3% / 10.3% |
3.4 / 6.8 |
54 / 70 |
47.6% / 54.4% |
44.4% / 57.1% |
42.3% / 52.5% |
4.4 / 7.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.2% / 41.4% |
26.6 / 24.0 |
8 |
TB |
37 – 34 W |
10.5 |
48.6% / 41.1% |
5.7% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 8.0% |
7.5 / 8.0 |
42.9% / 51.9% |
28.6% / 11.1% |
5.0 / 4.7 |
63 / 83 |
50.0% / 39.7% |
46.0% / 44.6% |
54.6% / 49.0% |
6.4 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.4% / 32.5% |
29.5 / 24.5 |
10 |
NO |
14 – 51 L |
-21.4 |
46.2% / 70.4% |
15.4% / 0.0% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 9.8 |
62.5% / 64.0% |
6.3% / 10.0% |
6.9 / 4.9 |
42 / 77 |
61.8% / 72.9% |
52.4% / 66.2% |
61.3% / 45.3% |
6.8 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.1% / 64.9% |
25.9 / 38.8 |
11 |
@BAL |
21 – 24 L |
-1.3 |
39.5% / 52.4% |
2.6% / 9.5% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
5.4 / 6.6 |
37.5% / 47.4% |
31.3% / 15.8% |
3.0 / 4.7 |
54 / 78 |
38.5% / 53.6% |
38.9% / 48.7% |
56.5% / 33.7% |
4.7 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
29.6% / 73.1% |
31.5 / 31.6 |
12 |
CLE |
20 – 35 L |
-17.6 |
48.9% / 69.2% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 9.9 |
55.0% / 47.2% |
25.0% / 27.8% |
6.5 / 2.4 |
67 / 62 |
54.9% / 60.4% |
50.7% / 56.5% |
40.1% / 51.2% |
5.6 / 5.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
29.9% / 58.1% |
27.0 / 33.8 |
13 |
DEN |
10 – 24 L |
-6.2 |
38.1% / 43.5% |
9.5% / 8.7% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 6.2 |
43.5% / 60.0% |
34.8% / 17.1% |
4.8 / 6.3 |
65 / 58 |
42.0% / 60.5% |
40.0% / 53.4% |
57.6% / 61.0% |
4.8 / 6.2 |
3.1% / 1.7% |
35.4% / 60.3% |
22.7 / 32.7 |
14 |
@LAC |
21 – 26 L |
-6.9 |
46.7% / 51.6% |
10.0% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 6.5 |
43.8% / 48.0% |
21.9% / 20.0% |
4.5 / 3.4 |
62 / 56 |
47.9% / 52.4% |
45.2% / 50.0% |
36.6% / 31.6% |
4.8 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.6% / 44.6% |
34.7 / 27.3 |