Denver Broncos @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Dec 2
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 365
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals +5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Denver (-5) vs CINCINNATI
The Bengals were 2.5-point favorites just one week ago on the advanced spread but the market has moved a full touchdown since due to injuries – and our model shows that might not be enough. Cincinnati’s offense is averaging more than a yard per play lower since Tyler Eifert went out in week 4 and now they’ll be without Andy Dalton. Our quarterback model makes a 4 point adjustment from Dalton to Jeff Driskel, who’s thrown for 6.1 yards per pass play in limited action this year. The rookie quarterback will be aided by the return of A.J. Green, as the Pro Bowl wide receiver is gaining 2.45 yards per route run (7th), but Driskel probably won’t have too much time in the pocket with left tackle Cordy Glenn likely out again. Backups Cedric Ogbuehi or Jake Fisher stand little chance against standout rookie Bradley Chubb, who ranks 10th in pass rush efficiency.

Defensively, it looks like Dre Kirkpatrick, surrendering just 0.96 yards per cover snap (23rd), will miss this game along with Carl Lawson and Nick Vigil. Opposing running backs have been killing the Bengals lately, averaging more than 200 yards from scrimmage in their 3-game losing streak as they deal with linebacker injuries. Denver’s 4th-rated ground game should be effective and I expect Philip Lindsay to be a threat catching passes out of the backfield as well.

Our model favors the Broncos by 6.4 but Denver applies to a negative 20-53-2 ATS situation that plays against road teams off consecutive upset wins.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Bengals
DEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.0 38.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.4% 49.1%
  • Sack Rate 6.5% 8.5%
  • Int Rate 2.3% 3.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 17.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.4% 48.1%
  • NYPP 6.4 7.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.6 27.2
  • RB YPR 5.0 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 23.5% 19.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.6% 42.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 52.1% 36.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.1 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 61.6 65.4
  • Early Down Succ 50.8% 48.5%
  • Succ Rate 47.7% 46.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 48.3% 46.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.9 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.7 29.2
  • Run Ratio 41.6% 42.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.9 27.0
  • Game Control -1.0 1.0
 
  • Points 22.3 21.7
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