Game Analysis

Lean – Denver (-2) over CAROLINA

· Carolina is benching Baker Mayfield after he threw two interceptions last week and the offense scored only three points. The Panthers are onto quarterback number three for the season with Sam Darnold set to make his debut on Sunday. Darnold averaged only 5.3 yppp last year which is lower than Carolina’s 5.6 yppp as a team this season. I don’t think there’s a significant difference between PJ Walker, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold.

· For as dangerous as Denver’s pass rush has been, I think the Panthers offensive line has a chance to hold up for Darnold this week.

· Baron Browning is the main edge rushing threat for the Broncos with Randy Gregory out with a knee injury and Bradley Chubb traded away. Carolina LT Ikem Ekwonu had a shaky start, but the rookie has settled in ranking 5th in pass blocking efficiency since the start of October. Ekwonu should be able to contain Browning this week.

· Denver interior defender Dre’Mont Jones has 35 pressures (8th) but he will be limited by RG Austin Corbett, who ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Panthers’ wide receiver DJ Moore will be shut down by cornerback Patrick Surtain, who ranks 3rd in coverage grade by PFF.

· Russell Wilson will be behind a patchwork offensive line and likely without two starting wide receivers on Sunday. Jerry Jeudy is averaging 0.31 EPA/target (27th) but it looks like his ankle is going to take another week to heal. Meanwhile, Broncos WR KJ Hamler is battling a hamstring injury.

· Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn conceded only three receptions from five targets for 22 yards last week and he will limit remaining starting WR Courtland Sutton.

· Denver backup LT Calvin Anderson ranks 53rd out of 58 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency since taking over for Garrett Bolles in week 7. Anderson will struggle versus Panthers’ edge defender Brian Burns, who has 44 pressures (7th).

· It looks like Carolina’s defense will be without DT Matt Ioannidis’s calf will keep him out again for this game. Ioannidis ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency and is worth 0.4 points.

· This will likely close with the lowest total of the season and we think it is completely justified.

· Our model favors the Broncos by 3.5 with a predicted total of 36.3.