Game Analysis
Lean Under (40) – BUFFALO (+3) vs Denver
As discussed last week in our Strong Opinion on Denver, the Broncos have an advantage playing at home in high altitude early in the season when conditioning of their opponents isn’t as good as it is later in the season. Denver certainly benefitted from their altitude advantage as opponents in starting the season 2-0 with wins over the Chargers and Cowboys. The Broncos have a point differential of +28 and my numbers show them as the top performers so far this season. Denver’s 5th ranked defense may not be a surprise but their 3rd ranked offense is certainly much higher than preseason expectations. As I mentioned though, I think opposing defenses have been tiring out in the altitude on these long Broncos drives. These tired defenses have shown in the numbers as Denver has scored a touchdown on every trip to the Redzone this year, which is something that surely will not continue.
Buffalo was a dropped pass away at the end of the game from winning in Carolina last week but my metrics show they were outplayed – the Bills never even got the ball into the Redzone. Buffalo’s offense will need to improve if they hope to get back in the win column in week 3 but the Bills have less weapons on offense this season and I certainly don’t expect them to be as good offensively as they were last season. The Bills still have a solid defense and I will lean with the Under in this game.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Broncos
- Bills
Pass
- Pass Plays 33.0 43.0
- Succ Pass Plays 57.4% 44.7%
- Sack Rate 9.2% 3.4%
- Int Rate 3.3% 3.5%
- Deep Pass Rate 15.5% 8.6%
- Big Pass Yards 44.1% 16.4%
- NYPP 5.8 4.9
Rush
- Rush Plays 38.5 18.0
- RB YPR 4.1 2.2
- Stuff Rate 18.2% 37.3%
- Succ Rush Plays 46.5% 27.9%
- Big Rush Yards 32.7% 38.0%
- Yards Per Rush 4.1 2.9
Game
- All Snaps 71.5 61.0
- Early Down Succ 51.9% 43.8%
- Succ Rate 51.5% 39.3%
- Big Yards Rate 39.3% 21.1%
- Yards Per Play 4.9 4.3
- Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 0.0%
- Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 25.7
- Run Ratio 53.8% 30.2%
- Starting Field Pos 29.4 34.6
- Game Control 9.3 -9.3
- Points 33.0 19.0