Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *Over (41) – Denver vs ARIZONA
Lean – Denver (-1)
John Elway called his defense “soft” this week and there’s certainly reason for his frustration. Denver’s defense hasn’t looked the same without shutdown CB Aqib Talib this season and the Broncos rank 21st in our numbers defensively, slightly better than Arizona’s 23rd-rated defense. The defenses in this game are not good enough to justify a total this low.
The Broncos allowed 6.1 yards per pass play in 2017 compared to 6.7 yards per pass play this year with Talib’s replacement, Bradley Roby, surrendering 1.70 yards per cover snap, 7th-worst among all qualifying cornerbacks. Roby has been in Denver since 2014, but it appears he isn’t ready to be the top outside corner and this week he’ll line up across from Josh Rosen’s most targeted receiver, Christian Kirk. Ricky Seals-Jones has seen the 3rd-most targets from Rosen and he will look to build on his 11.5 yards per target performance last week versus a Broncos pass defense allowing 10.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends this season (29th). Two of Rosen’s top receivers have favorable matchups in the air, and David Johnson should be able to find room on the ground against Denver’s 30th-rated rush defense (according to our metrics).
On the other side of the ball, Patrick Peterson is surrendering just 0.56 yards per cover snap (3rd) and is likely to shut down Demaryius Thomas, but Case Keenum’s most targeted receiver this year is Emmanuel Sanders, who has an excellent matchup on the inside. Sanders runs 63% of his snaps from the slot and he will line up across from Budda Baker, who is conceding the 2nd-most yards per cover snap of all qualifying nickelbacks. Furthermore, the Cardinals allow 8.1 yards per target to opposing running backs (28th) and we should see plenty of targets for Phillip Lindsay, who is gaining 1.88 yards per route run (11th) in his rookie season.
Both offenses have some favorable matchups against defenses that came into the season overrated. Arizona has only averaged 4.5 yards per play so far this season but in today’s NFL it’s likely that number regresses upwards. That low yppl average actually triggers a pretty good over situation, as starting in week 5 the Over is 49-12-1 since 2013 if one of the teams enters the game average less than 4.80 yards per play (including the over in Arizona’s game last week). The Broncos play at the 4th-fastest pace in the league and we project 45.7 total points in this battle of bad defensive teams. The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 42 points or less.
Our model favors Denver by 2.3 points and the Broncos apply to a 72-26-1 ATS situation this week. I’ll lean with Denver.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.7
33.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.8%
51.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
3.6%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.1%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.8%
52.7%
-
NYPP
6.8
8.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.5
30.2
-
RB YPR
5.3
5.1
-
Stuff Rate
25.8%
16.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.0%
46.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.0%
45.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.3
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
51.4%
50.5%
-
Succ Rate
50.2%
48.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.1%
52.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
6.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.9
29.5
-
Run Ratio
37.4%
47.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.2
27.7
-
Game Control
-3.8
3.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
22.2
29.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
153.6%
146.7%
-
Sack Rate
23.7%
23.8%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
10.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.8%
29.6%
-
NYPP
18.3
19.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.5
34.7
-
RB YPR
3.1
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
23.7%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.8%
48.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
21.3%
52.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.2
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
42.7
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
41.2%
52.9%
-
Succ Rate
52.4%
57.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.4%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.9%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
38.4
34.3
-
Run Ratio
53.3%
56.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
29.0
-
Game Control
-4.2
4.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
SEA |
27 – 24 W |
1.9 |
57.5% / 35.9% |
2.5% / 15.4% |
7.7% / 6.1% |
8.1 / 6.2 |
50.0% / 18.8% |
21.9% / 25.0% |
4.6 / 4.0 |
72 / 55 |
58.3% / 34.9% |
54.2% / 30.9% |
53.2% / 63.7% |
6.5 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
44.4% / 29.1% |
26.6 / 27.4 |
2 |
OAK |
20 – 19 W |
-6.1 |
36.1% / 72.7% |
2.8% / 3.0% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 8.5 |
57.1% / 44.4% |
17.9% / 18.5% |
6.0 / 3.4 |
64 / 60 |
42.6% / 67.3% |
45.3% / 60.0% |
57.7% / 41.3% |
6.0 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.8% / 45.0% |
25.7 / 23.9 |
3 |
@BAL |
14 – 27 L |
-4.7 |
45.9% / 48.8% |
8.1% / 4.9% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 6.5 |
45.8% / 32.3% |
33.3% / 19.4% |
5.0 / 2.6 |
61 / 72 |
47.8% / 43.1% |
45.9% / 41.7% |
39.9% / 33.9% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 43.1% |
33.4 / 27.2 |
4 |
KC |
23 – 27 L |
1.9 |
32.4% / 50.0% |
10.8% / 2.2% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 6.6 |
72.7% / 66.7% |
18.2% / 14.8% |
7.2 / 5.3 |
59 / 73 |
53.3% / 59.3% |
47.5% / 56.2% |
59.7% / 48.8% |
6.5 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 37.0% |
24.2 / 30.6 |
5 |
@NYJ |
16 – 34 L |
-7.7 |
71.8% / 72.7% |
10.3% / 9.1% |
2.9% / 10.0% |
8.8 / 17.2 |
47.1% / 46.2% |
47.1% / 17.9% |
5.4 / 8.3 |
56 / 50 |
56.1% / 42.6% |
64.3% / 52.0% |
42.2% / 74.5% |
7.8 / 10.3 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
30.4% / 78.0% |
26.2 / 28.8 |
6 |
LA |
20 – 23 L |
-8.2 |
48.8% / 30.3% |
4.7% / 15.2% |
2.4% / 3.6% |
6.9 / 5.3 |
33.3% / 68.3% |
16.7% / 2.4% |
3.4 / 6.6 |
61 / 74 |
50.0% / 55.8% |
44.3% / 51.4% |
48.0% / 53.8% |
5.9 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
29.5% / 55.4% |
27.0 / 28.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
WAS |
6 – 24 L |
-13.7 |
700.0% / 600.0% |
100.0% / 100.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
72.5 / 82.3 |
56.3% / 46.5% |
12.5% / 25.6% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
18 / 46 |
53.7% / 50.0% |
127.8% / 82.6% |
35.0% / 47.0% |
11.9 / 9.3 |
5.6% / 2.2% |
88.9% / 93.5% |
29.3 / 18.0 |
2 |
@LA |
0 – 34 L |
-14.9 |
21.4% / 64.7% |
3.6% / 5.9% |
3.7% / 3.1% |
3.0 / 10.1 |
33.3% / 48.5% |
13.3% / 24.2% |
3.6 / 2.7 |
43 / 67 |
23.3% / 59.2% |
25.6% / 56.7% |
0.0% / 51.9% |
3.2 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 49.3% |
19.0 / 39.1 |
3 |
CHI |
14 – 16 L |
7.2 |
40.0% / 42.1% |
13.3% / 7.9% |
11.5% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 5.1 |
33.3% / 54.8% |
27.8% / 22.6% |
2.9 / 3.9 |
48 / 69 |
40.5% / 50.0% |
37.5% / 47.8% |
58.8% / 37.7% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
2.1% / 1.4% |
37.5% / 44.9% |
32.8 / 27.8 |
4 |
SEA |
17 – 20 L |
-2.0 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
3.6% / 7.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.9 |
39.3% / 50.0% |
35.7% / 23.5% |
3.3 / 5.0 |
56 / 61 |
40.9% / 58.0% |
41.1% / 49.2% |
54.0% / 35.6% |
4.7 / 5.4 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 55.7% |
26.4 / 35.5 |
5 |
@SF |
28 – 18 W |
6.1 |
80.0% / 71.1% |
10.0% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
16.4 / 7.9 |
30.8% / 50.0% |
23.1% / 29.4% |
2.3 / 4.3 |
36 / 72 |
40.0% / 45.2% |
44.4% / 61.1% |
47.1% / 41.2% |
6.2 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 4.2% |
72.2% / 47.2% |
39.7 / 22.7 |
6 |
@MIN |
17 – 27 L |
-8.0 |
37.1% / 54.1% |
11.4% / 10.8% |
3.2% / 3.0% |
5.9 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 42.4% |
30.0% / 18.2% |
3.1 / 5.9 |
55 / 70 |
48.8% / 54.7% |
38.2% / 48.6% |
41.3% / 31.3% |
4.9 / 5.9 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
36.4% / 47.1% |
25.5 / 30.9 |