Dallas Cowboys @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Sep 15
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 271
Odds: Washington Redskins +5.5, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – WASHINGTON (+5.5) over Dallas

The Cowboys offensive transformation under new coordinator Kellen Moore was on display in week 1. Play action is known to increase passing efficiency because it increases the gap between the linebackers and the secondary and pre-snap motion is utilized to help quarterbacks identify the coverage so they can get to the correct read faster. Dak Prescott used play action on 48% of his passes last week – compared to 25% in 2018 – and Dallas used motion on 73% of plays compared to 45% last year. Prescott got the ball out of his hand quickly, averaging 2.25 seconds to throw, which is 0.4 seconds faster than last season. Amari Cooper is now at 2.30 yards per route run since joining the team in week 9 last year, good for 8th-best among qualifying wide receivers in that stretch. I expect Prescott to find Cooper deep downfield as the Redskins are unlikely to provide much pressure. La’el Collins rewarded Dallas for signing him to a contract extension by allowing zero pressures in week 1 and the right tackle should limit Washington’s best defender, Ryan Kerrigan, off the edge. The rest of the excellent Cowboys offensive line shouldn’t have much trouble against the Redskins front especially without injured interior defender Jonathan Allen, who’s worth 0.7 points by our metrics. Washington’s rush defense is average and Ezekiel Elliot should be in line for a productive afternoon.

The Redskins don’t have the wide receiver talent to get the Cowboys out of base defense so we should see snaps with Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, and Sean Lee all on the field together like we did last week versus the Giants. Washington right tackle Morgan Moses allowed 6 pressures, including a sack in week 1, and he will likely struggle across from DeMarcus Lawrence. Case Keenum will need to utilize his tight ends as Jordan Reed looks to re-join Vernon Davis in the lineup.

This line has basically held from the advanced spread of Dallas by 4.5. Our model favors the Cowboys by just 2.9 with a predicted total of 44.8, but there’s real reason to believe the Dallas offense is much better than our prior rating projects if Kellen Moore continues his superb play calling. Still, I’ll lean with Washington on the basis of a 42-112-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that applies to Dallas that is based on last week’s impressive performance.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cowboys
  • Redskins


  • Pass Plays 31.5 43.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 66.6% 56.5%
  • Sack Rate 1.6% 2.3%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.7% 13.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.6% 24.9%
  • NYPP 10.5 6.0


  • Rush Plays 32.0 17.0
  • RB YPR 3.8 6.0
  • Stuff Rate 12.7% 14.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.7% 55.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.8% 46.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.6 5.8


  • All Snaps 63.5 60.5
  • Early Down Succ 60.1% 63.4%
  • Succ Rate 59.0% 55.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 47.0% 32.0%
  • Yards Per Play 7.6 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.2 27.0
  • Run Ratio 50.3% 28.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 21.5 25.9
  • Game Control 7.9 -7.9
  • Points 33.0 19.0
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