Dallas Cowboys
@ 
San Francisco 49ers
Game Analysis
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Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (-5) over Dallas
- The final dominoes for this game fell early Sunday morning when it was reported WR Deebo Samuel is suiting up for the 49ers as well as TE George Kittle, who has a league-high 64% success rate.
- San Francisco’s offense lost Samuel, Kittle, and All-Pro WR Brandon Aiyuk last week and Kansas City’s defense had a season-high 60% press coverage rate. The Chiefs did not concede a reception in press and had 2 interceptions. Dallas will not be able to replicate the press coverage because it looks like it will be another week before All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland is back on the field.
- There were also positive indications early this week about the Cowboys possibly getting back All-Pro edge defender Micah Parsons coming out of the bye but he will be sidelined for another game as well. Parsons ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.
- Dallas is going to struggle massively against the type of offense the 49ers run using extra fullbacks and tight ends. The Cowboys are allowing a league-worst 88% more yppp versus formations with just 2 WR than not and San Francisco’s offense uses only 2 WR at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.
- The 49ers have a 73% motion rate (4th-highest) and Dallas is surrendering a league-high 27% more yppp versus motion than no motion.
- San Francisco’s pass attack clearly has a favorable matchup using motion out of heavy formations and they will also be able to run the ball as the Cowboys are allowing a 46% rush success rate (30th).
- Dak Prescott’s yard per attempt versus a standard pass rush is only 82% of his yards per attempt against the blitz and he will struggle on Sunday night as the 49ers have an 80% standard pass rush rate (2nd-highest).
- San Francisco edge defenders Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd rank 8th and 20th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency and they will wreak havoc on Prescott in the standard pass rush. Dallas RT Terence Steele has surrendered 19 pressures (5th-most).
- The Cowboys have just 1 net passing yard on 26 dropbacks versus Cover 4 and they will be tested if they have figured out any answers as the 49ers have the 2nd-highest Cover 4 Rate in the NFL.
- Dallas All-Pro WR CeeDee Lamb will be limited on the inside across from San Francisco nickelback Deommodore Lenoir, who is allowing only 0.83 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th).
- Our model favors the 49ers by 8.0 points, with a predicted total of 46.0 points, but Dallas applies to a 57-18-2 ATS underdog bounce-back situation that plays on teams that lost their previous game by 28 points or more. I’d still Lean with the Niners though.