Game Analysis
SAN FRANCISCO (+6) vs Dallas
After orchestrating one of the best offensive seasons of all time last year in Atlanta, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers rank just 26th in yppl this season and he’s decided to start rookie quarterback CJ Beathard this week. My metrics rank Brian Hoyer as the 5th worst quarterback this season (min 100 dropbacks), but my QB projection model doesn’t expect Beathard to play any better. In fact, it’s entirely possible Beathard could be even worse given that rookies getting their first start this late in the season don’t profile well and are usually an act of desperation, which certainly seems to be the case here. Still, it’s worth noting Beathard looked as impressive as anybody in the preseason and rallied the 49ers’ offense last week in yet another close loss. San Francisco is the first team ever to lose 5 consecutive games by 3 points or less and it’s certainly tough to bet against them given their feistiness.
Ezekiel Elliott avoided suspension once again and will play in this game. However, Elliot’s looming suspension may be a distraction all season long. After leading the league in rushing yards on more than 5 yards per carry last season, Elliot is running for just 3.7 yards per carry in 2017. It won’t be easy this week against a San Francisco rush defense holding opponents to 3.4 yards per carry (5th) but Dak Prescott should have success through the air against a Niners’ defense that’s allowed 65% completions and 6.9 yards per pass play.
The number on this game looks fair, so I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.8
39.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.5%
50.5%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
7.8%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.0%
15.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.9%
37.5%
-
NYPP
6.7
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
26.2
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
24.9%
18.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.5%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.3%
38.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
66.0
-
Early Down Succ
47.6%
52.5%
-
Succ Rate
46.3%
50.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.1%
41.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
27.5
-
Run Ratio
43.0%
39.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
24.3
-
Game Control
0.6
-0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.2
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.3%
49.6%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.2%
20.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.3%
37.6%
-
NYPP
5.1
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.7
35.2
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
26.3%
26.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.1%
39.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.3%
39.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
65.8
73.0
-
Early Down Succ
42.7%
46.5%
-
Succ Rate
40.0%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.5%
38.1%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.5
29.1
-
Run Ratio
34.4%
48.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.2
29.6
-
Game Control
-5.3
5.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYG |
19 – 3 W |
9.1 |
48.7% /
48.8% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
4.8 |
54.8% /
23.1% |
19.4% /
7.7% |
4.2 /
2.8 |
70 /
54 |
50.9% /
46.2% |
51.4% /
42.6% |
37.0% /
27.8% |
5.6 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
24.1% |
29.4 /
16.0 |
| 2 |
@DEN |
17 – 42 L |
-11.9 |
42.3% /
64.7% |
3.8% /
5.9% |
4.0% /
3.1% |
4.4 /
5.9 |
28.6% /
52.5% |
42.9% /
17.5% |
2.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
74 |
44.7% /
59.6% |
39.4% /
58.1% |
14.6% /
30.7% |
4.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
21.2% /
54.1% |
37.6 /
26.9 |
| 3 |
@ARI |
28 – 17 W |
-0.5 |
42.1% /
38.9% |
5.3% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.2 |
33.3% /
33.3% |
33.3% /
33.3% |
3.7 /
2.3 |
46 /
75 |
42.9% /
35.7% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
62.8% /
51.5% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
58.7% /
28.0% |
29.4 /
21.6 |
| 4 |
LA |
30 – 35 L |
2.3 |
35.1% /
48.6% |
5.4% /
2.7% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.6 |
55.6% /
65.6% |
14.8% /
21.9% |
7.0 /
5.3 |
64 /
69 |
41.7% /
63.0% |
43.8% /
56.5% |
52.3% /
51.6% |
6.9 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
46.4% |
22.4 /
34.8 |
| 5 |
GB |
31 – 35 L |
4.2 |
59.5% /
51.5% |
2.7% /
12.1% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.5 |
60.0% /
64.0% |
14.3% /
12.0% |
4.7 /
6.4 |
72 /
58 |
57.9% /
58.0% |
59.7% /
56.9% |
28.7% /
43.3% |
5.7 /
5.9 |
2.8% /
1.7% |
48.6% /
43.1% |
25.7 /
22.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.2% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
26.7% /
39.0% |
26.7% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
54 /
65 |
48.7% /
42.6% |
40.7% /
41.5% |
33.6% /
29.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
27.8% /
63.1% |
30.1 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% /
33.3% |
6.9% /
7.1% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
52.6% /
37.2% |
21.1% /
20.9% |
8.4 /
3.1 |
48 /
85 |
38.9% /
37.5% |
33.3% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
23.7% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.6% /
50.6% |
24.5 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% /
64.3% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.4 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
27.3% /
30.3% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
47.2% /
57.4% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
3.3% |
44.6% /
54.1% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% /
49.1% |
5.8% /
10.5% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
4.0 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
39.1% |
25.9% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
2.3 |
79 /
80 |
33.9% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
46.3% |
27.9% /
17.9% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
28.8% |
22.3 /
27.9 |
| 5 |
@IND |
23 – 26 L |
-3.3 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
4.2% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.0 /
7.6 |
31.8% /
32.4% |
31.8% /
32.4% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
70 /
75 |
46.3% /
38.2% |
44.3% /
38.7% |
37.3% /
58.1% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
49.3% |
17.5 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
24 – 26 L |
-7.0 |
30.0% /
60.5% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
2.7% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
65.0% /
38.2% |
25.0% /
29.4% |
4.3 /
2.8 |
70 /
72 |
41.2% /
51.8% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
50.4% /
43.6% |
4.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
47.2% |
32.6 /
26.9 |
Dallas Cowboys
@ 
San Francisco 49ers