Game Analysis

Lean – Dallas (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH

• Dak Prescott was at his best in the quick game last week, averaging 10.2 yppp on passes under 2.5 seconds against the Giants. I expect Prescott to negate Pittsburgh’s pass rush with the quick game on Sunday night.
• Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle is averaging 1.40 yards per route run (9th) and the screen game will be wide open versus a Steelers defense surrendering a 56% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (28th).
• The Dallas offense can chip edge rusher TJ Watt and count on the interior to limit DT Cameron Heyward, whose 15 pressures rank 6th. Cowboys LG Tyler Smith ranks 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency and C Cooper Beebe ranks 7th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Pittsburgh’s defense has a 58.4% single-high coverage rate (2nd-highest) where Prescott is adept at finding the openings. Dallas averages 15% more yppp versus single high than two high coverages this season (8th).
• The Steelers are 4th in run-play rate adjusted for situation and Pittsburgh’s heavy personnel is likely going to give fits to a Cowboys defense allowing 0.09 EPA/rush (31st).
• However, the Dallas defense did stand up last week as the Giants had 24 rushing attempts for 26 yards averaging only 0.1 rushing yards before contact.
• The Cowboys will be without both Pro Bowl edge rushers for this game. Micah Parsons has an 18.9% pressure rate (7th) and DeMarcus Lawrence has 3 of the Cowboys’ 7 sacks on the year. The duo is a massive loss worth 4.6 points according to our numbers.
• Pittsburgh starting guard James Daniels suffered an Achilles tear last Sunday leaving backup RG Spencer Anderson to struggle across from interior defender Osa Odighizuwa, who ranks 13th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Justin Field will get the ball out fast to his running backs in a favorable matchup. The Steelers are targeting RBs on 26.2% of passes (2nd-most) and Dallas is allowing 0.45 EPA/target to opposing running backs (29th).
• The Cowboys are allowing a 43% success rate to opposing tight ends (9th) and they will limit TE Pat Freiermuth, who is averaging 1.47 yards per route run (9th).
• Our model makes Dallas a 1.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.9.