Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-3) vs Dallas

· I expect less running from Jalen Hurts this week as he plays through a bone bruise, but they should be able to execute the quarterback sneaks regardless. Hurts has run for only 27 yards the last two weeks after averaging 48.2 rushing yards in 21 games dating back to the start of last season.

· The Cowboys’ defense has a 40.4% man-coverage rate (2nd) and they will struggle against wide receiver AJ Brown, who is averaging 0.66 EPA/target (4th). Brown has a 48% target share versus man this season compared to a 28% target share against zone coverage.

· Eagles WR DeVonta Smith will be contained by CB DaRon Bland, who is allowing 0.85 yards per cover snap (17th).

· Philadelphia’s offensive line has surrendered a league-high 49 pressures in the last three weeks with All-Pro RT Lane Johnson nursing an ankle sprain and starting RG Cam Jurgens on the sideline. Jurgen could suit up this week and Johnson’s ankle is getting better. The Eagles’ offensive line with everyone healthy has a shot to limit a Dallas pass rush that leads the NFL with a 48.0% pressure rate.

· Dak Prescott averaged 13.9 yppp on passes with at least 10 air yards against the Rams and he should be able to throw downfield again on Sunday. Philadelphia’s secondary has had a different starting five combination in every game this season and the nickelbacks are allowing a 7.8% explosive pass rate (20th). Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb had 12 receptions for 158 yards and he has another favorable matchup on the inside if starting nickelback Bradley Roby is out again for the Eagles.

· Philadelphia interior defender Jalen Carter has 28 pressures (5th) and the rookie will struggle across from LG Tyler Smith, who leads the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Dallas starting LT Tyron Smith might be out again providing a favorable matchup on the edge for Josh Sweat, who ranks 14th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· The Eagles are allowing just a 34% pass success rate to running backs (3rd) and they will shut down Tony Pollard, who is gaining 1.21 yards per route run (9th).

· Prescott has an unsustainable league-high 64% completion rate under pressure this year. Prescott’s completion rate under pressure last season was just 51%.

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 1.2-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.7 points, but the Cowboys are a bully that plays well against mediocre or bad teams and relatively poorly against good teams. Since Dak Prescott’s first season in 2016 the Cowboys are 47-22-2 ATS against teams at .500 or worse and 19-29 ATS against teams with a winning record (11-21 ATS if Dallas is coming off a win). The Eagles also apply to a 115-47-3 ATS situation and I used Philly in my pool.