Game Analysis
PHILADELPHIA (-7) vs Dallas
Sean Lee is out for the Cowboys again, which is a dream matchup for Philadelphia’s offense. The Dallas defense is 1.2 yards per play worse in the 3 games Lee has missed this season because rookie Leighton Vander Esch doesn’t provide the same level of pre-snap communication on passing plays. Thus, the Cowboys are more vulnerable inside the numbers, particularly on crossing patterns. The Eagles target their tight ends on 38.5% of passes, by far the most in the league, and Zach Ertz should have a huge day on the inside. Philadelphia recently acquired Golden Tate, who is typically overrated because he does most of his work underneath, but he should have a good debut in this matchup, as he recorded 132 yards and 2 touchdowns versus Dallas without Sean Lee in week 4. Carson Wentz seems to be fully healthy now after being rushed back early due to some poor Nick Foles performances in the opening 2 weeks and we expect the Eagles offense to be more than 2 points better than their season-to-date numbers would suggest.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys offense is gaining just 5.4 yards per play (26th), and they don’t match up well with Philadelphia’s front 7. Dallas scored just 20 points combined in the two games versus the Eagles last season. Brandon Graham only has 1.5 sacks this season with his bull-rushing style but he’s actually playing well as his 38 pressures rank 5th at his position. Graham also boasts a 14.3% run stop rate and I expect him to cause problems up front for the Cowboys.
Our model favors the Eagles by 8.1 but the better value is in the Eagles’ first half team total over 12.5 since our model leans also shows value on the game to go over (45.5 is our true line).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.1
32.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.0%
50.5%
-
Sack Rate
10.0%
8.0%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.9%
17.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.4%
33.9%
-
NYPP
6.2
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.4
28.0
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
21.6%
28.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.1%
39.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.9%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.0
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
59.6
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
46.2%
46.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.7%
44.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.4%
36.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.1
30.2
-
Run Ratio
47.6%
45.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.7
29.2
-
Game Control
1.6
-1.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.1
41.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.2%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.2%
44.0%
-
NYPP
6.7
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.5
19.4
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
18.8%
24.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.3%
46.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.0%
46.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.6
61.3
-
Early Down Succ
51.1%
49.5%
-
Succ Rate
50.8%
46.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.6%
46.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.8%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.8
26.9
-
Run Ratio
40.0%
31.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.8
28.8
-
Game Control
1.0
-1.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CAR |
8 – 16 L |
-6.7 |
37.1% /
50.0% |
17.1% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
5.2 |
26.1% /
44.7% |
17.4% /
21.1% |
4.1 /
3.9 |
58 /
66 |
38.6% /
58.7% |
32.8% /
47.0% |
22.7% /
28.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
39.7% /
57.6% |
21.4 /
38.1 |
| 2 |
NYG |
20 – 13 W |
10.5 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
0.0% /
12.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
4.4 |
59.3% /
47.1% |
14.8% /
35.3% |
5.2 /
2.1 |
52 /
67 |
56.8% /
33.3% |
48.1% /
38.8% |
48.3% /
18.4% |
5.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
51.9% /
25.4% |
27.6 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
@SEA |
13 – 24 L |
-8.3 |
28.2% /
42.9% |
12.8% /
7.1% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
6.5 |
52.6% /
30.0% |
15.8% /
30.0% |
8.7 /
2.9 |
58 /
68 |
39.5% /
34.0% |
36.2% /
35.3% |
51.2% /
34.8% |
5.2 /
4.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
58.8% |
25.9 /
27.2 |
| 4 |
DET |
26 – 24 W |
1.7 |
50.0% /
54.5% |
10.0% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
8.7 |
55.6% /
40.0% |
22.2% /
25.0% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
66 /
53 |
56.9% /
47.6% |
53.0% /
49.1% |
51.6% /
64.1% |
6.3 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
37.7% |
21.8 /
23.8 |
| 5 |
@HOU |
16 – 19 L |
0.3 |
65.0% /
79.4% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
11.1% /
3.0% |
9.7 /
11.0 |
36.7% /
32.3% |
30.0% /
32.3% |
3.3 /
2.8 |
50 /
65 |
43.2% /
53.3% |
48.0% /
56.9% |
52.9% /
30.1% |
5.9 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
60.0% /
47.7% |
30.8 /
27.9 |
| 6 |
JAC |
40 – 7 W |
18.5 |
36.7% /
48.3% |
10.0% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
5.7 /
4.8 |
45.2% /
38.9% |
23.8% /
16.7% |
4.9 /
3.6 |
72 /
47 |
39.6% /
48.6% |
41.7% /
44.7% |
45.0% /
32.4% |
5.3 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
2.1% |
58.3% /
38.3% |
37.8 /
26.4 |
| 7 |
@WAS |
17 – 20 L |
-4.7 |
41.0% /
42.3% |
10.3% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
6.7 |
54.5% /
40.6% |
27.3% /
40.6% |
3.3 /
4.1 |
61 /
58 |
48.9% /
46.7% |
45.9% /
41.4% |
45.8% /
46.6% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
55.2% |
21.4 /
33.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ATL |
18 – 12 W |
-0.9 |
32.4% /
31.9% |
5.4% /
8.5% |
2.9% /
2.3% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
53.6% /
44.4% |
21.4% /
27.8% |
4.1 /
4.1 |
65 /
65 |
40.4% /
38.8% |
41.5% /
35.4% |
20.6% /
49.5% |
3.6 /
4.6 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.7% |
22.2 /
35.2 |
| 2 |
@TB |
21 – 27 L |
-11.1 |
42.0% /
60.0% |
6.0% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.4 /
11.2 |
54.2% /
25.0% |
20.8% /
41.7% |
3.8 /
1.8 |
74 /
59 |
48.1% /
48.9% |
45.9% /
45.8% |
36.2% /
45.3% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
2.7% /
1.7% |
32.4% /
40.7% |
25.5 /
27.2 |
| 3 |
IND |
20 – 16 W |
0.6 |
47.6% /
39.5% |
11.9% /
4.7% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
3.3 |
60.0% /
38.5% |
28.6% /
23.1% |
4.3 /
5.2 |
77 /
56 |
55.6% /
45.2% |
53.2% /
39.3% |
34.0% /
46.9% |
4.9 /
3.7 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
45.5% /
23.2% |
21.6 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@TEN |
23 – 26 L |
2.6 |
46.3% /
47.8% |
7.4% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
5.8 /
7.1 |
36.4% /
39.1% |
13.6% /
34.8% |
5.3 /
3.1 |
76 /
69 |
45.9% /
47.9% |
43.4% /
44.9% |
41.0% /
38.9% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
28.9% /
33.3% |
28.0 /
24.4 |
| 5 |
MIN |
21 – 23 L |
-7.0 |
80.8% /
74.2% |
11.5% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.9 /
9.6 |
58.8% /
44.0% |
11.8% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
43 /
56 |
63.6% /
62.5% |
72.1% /
60.7% |
51.9% /
48.8% |
8.5 /
6.7 |
4.7% /
1.8% |
39.5% /
44.6% |
30.9 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
@NYG |
34 – 13 W |
14.8 |
48.6% /
34.0% |
2.7% /
8.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.3 /
5.4 |
51.6% /
52.9% |
16.1% /
17.6% |
3.5 /
8.6 |
68 /
64 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
50.0% /
39.1% |
32.7% /
58.4% |
5.6 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
26.6% |
31.4 /
25.5 |
| 7 |
CAR |
17 – 21 L |
6.8 |
51.2% /
51.2% |
9.8% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.1 |
54.2% /
61.1% |
25.0% /
16.7% |
2.4 /
6.8 |
65 /
59 |
57.1% /
57.8% |
52.3% /
54.2% |
37.7% /
50.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
36.9% /
30.5% |
19.8 /
26.3 |
| 8 |
@JAC |
24 – 18 W |
2.2 |
52.9% /
44.4% |
11.8% /
8.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.9 |
41.9% /
64.7% |
12.9% /
17.6% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
65 /
62 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
47.7% /
50.0% |
62.6% /
34.3% |
6.1 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
47.7% /
27.4% |
26.9 /
29.0 |
Dallas Cowboys
@ 
Philadelphia Eagles