Game Analysis

Note: Dallas was released as a Best Bet to subscribers early in the week when the line was -4.5. That release moved the line up but the Cowboys are still a Best Bet at -6 or less.

2-Star Best Bet – **Dallas (-4.5) over NY GIANTS

• Dak Prescott was forced into a career-high 35% tight window throw rate last week, but he’ll have more cushion for error against a Giants’ secondary that will be without two starting cornerbacks in Adoree Jackson and Andru Phillips.
• The Giants have a 39.6% blitz rate (7th-highest) but the Cowboys yards per attempt is 15% higher versus the blitz than a standard pass rush (9th).
• Dallas TE Jake Ferguson is averaging 1.80 yards per route run (7th) and he has a favorable matchup as New York’s defense is surrendering 0.44 EPA/target to tight ends (27th).
• Giants WR Malik Nabers has a 38% target share, which is the highest for a rookie through week 3 in the last 25 years, but he will be limited on this game by CB Trevon Diggs, who was All-Pro in 2022.
• Daniel Jones is averaging 0.72 EPA less when targeting anyone other than Nabers. Wan’Dale Robinson is the only other receiver on the Giants with more than 10 targets and he will be shut down on the inside by nickelback Jourdan Lewis, who is allowing a league-low 0.23 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• Cowboys edge defender Micah Parsons 7th in pass rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from RT Jermaine Eluemunor, who has surrendered 9 pressures (6th-most).
• Jones has a yards per attempt versus zone coverage just 85% of his yards per attempt against man (28th) and he will be shut down this week as the Dallas defense has an 82.9% zone coverage rate (7th-highest).
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 6.5 points, with a predicted total of 44.8, but we get Dallas by 8 after factoring in the favorable matchups and the Cowboys are a bully that likes to beat up on bad teams.
• Dallas is 30-11-1 ATS when favored by more than 3 points against teams with a win percentage of .500 or less in the Dak Prescott era and they’re also 11-2 ATS when favored after a loss in recent years.

Dallas is a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 or less and 1-Star to -6 (Strong Opinion at -6.5).