Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (46.5) – Dallas (-3) vs NY GIANTS

· The Giants profile as an under team to start the season. Daniel Jones raised his success rate from 45% in 2021 to 50% last year with the new coaching led by Brian Daboll. It was mostly smoke and mirrors though.

· Jones had the lowest average depth of target of any qualifying QB, and he used the 2nd-highest play action rate. Opposing defensive coordinators will have had all offseason now to scheme up ways to keep Daniel Jones in the pocket and take away those underneath routes. He’s going to have to prove he has arm talent in 2023.

· It never really clicked last year for TE Darren Waller in Josh McDaniels’ system in Las Vegas, but Waller did average 2.18 yards per route run from 2019-2021 and is now with the Giants. Waller is still clearly a top 10 tight end in my eyes and at least a half point better than Daniel Bellinger – a clear upgrade for this offense. I’ve got New York’s receiver group up to around league average with Waller now the focal point alongside Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Sterling Shepard returning from an ACL injury that kept him out most of last season.

· Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs had 10 pass breakups in 2022 (7th) and they brought in CB Stephon Gilmore, who ranked 6th in PFF coverage grade last year.

· Dallas was conceding a 43% dropback success rate through the first seven weeks of the season (7th) with the starting secondary intact and then lost nickelback Jourdan Lewis. Dallas backup nickelback DaRon Bland surrendered 0.55 yards per cover snap in the slot more than Lewis did. Lewis will be back on the field for week 1 and, along with bringing in Gilmore, the secondary gets a major boost.

· Giants LT Andrew Thomas registered just two penalties all last season and conceded only 21 pressures on over 600 pass-blocking snaps. Meanwhile, RT Evan Neal ranked 55th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 56 qualifiers. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence combined for 8.5 pressures per game on the edge for the Cowboys in 2022 and one of the two will wreak havoc consistently versus Neal..

· New York’s 2022 center Jon Feliciano ranked 6th-worst among centers in pass-blocking efficiency last season, but other rookie centers in the NFL last season, like Tyler Linderbaum and Luke Fortner, were worse than him so I don’t think the Giants can say they upgraded after drafting John Michael Schmitz in the second round. Meanwhile, Mark Glowinski and Ben Bredeson are clearly below-average guards.

· I think New York’s defense got better in the offseason. The Giants rated 30th in Rush EPA allowed in 2022 and they signed Bobby Okereke, who had 31 runs stops, ranking 13th among linebackers last year.

· New York traded for Isaiah Simmons, who never really fit into Vance Joseph’s fire zone scheme. Meanwhile, Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has one of the best man blitzing schemes in the NFL. Simmons had a 14% pressure rate last year but only rushed the passer on 7% of his snaps which will go way up in this new scheme. Per PFF, Simmons was the only player in college football with 80+ grades as a run defender, tackler, pass rusher, and in man coverage during his last season at Clemson.

· New York’s defense led the NFL with a 40% blitz rate last year and no other defense was even above 35%. Wink was the only coordinator to play Cover 0 on more than 10% of early down snaps and 20% of third down snaps in the preseason. Dak Prescott is solid diagnosing coverage at the line of scrimmage, and he might exploit the Giants once or twice when they send the house.

· Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams combined for 96 pressures for the Giants on the interior last season and they should get a leap from last year’s 5th-overall pick edge defender Kayvon Thibodeaux.

· The Dallas offensive line is elite at two spots and above average at the other three. However, LG Tyler Smith is banged up and he will struggle against second-team All-Pro DT Dexter Lawrence.

· Our model favors the Cowboys by 3.8 points with a predicted total of 43.0 points and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 46 points or more.