Game Analysis

Lean – Dallas (-2.5) over LA CHARGERS

· Dak Prescott averaged a season-low 5.2 yppp last week and he threw 3 interceptions. It’d be alright if Prescott was throwing picks aggressively challenging defenses downfield, but he is throwing short of the sticks on 58% of his passes (3rd-highest).

· It does not look like it’ll turn around for Prescott on Monday night against a Chargers defense with an 80% zone rate (8th-highest). Prescott’s yards per attempt versus zone is just 74% of his yards per attempt against man. Cowboys top WR CeeDee Lamb is averaging 1.05 yards per route run fewer against zone than man.

· Los Angeles edge rusher Khalil Mack had 6.0 sacks in his last outing, but he will be limited by LT Tyron Smith, who is conceding just a 3.3% pressure rate.

· Dallas right tackle RT Terence Steele has surrendered 5 hits on the QB (2nd-most) and he will either line up across from Joey Bosa or edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu, who ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency. Bosa missed the game before the bye with hamstring and toe injuries.

· The Chargers offensive line ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency but they will be tested this week. The Cowboys’ defense is getting pressure on half of opponent dropbacks. Cleveland’s defense in 2nd has a 41% pressure rate. The gap between Dallas and Cleveland is the same as the gap between the Browns and the Rams ranking 22nd in pressure rate.

· Cowboys’ interior defender Osa Odighizuwa ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will go against backup center Will Clapp. Los Angeles starting center Corey Linsley led all centers in pass-blocking efficiency in 2022 and he is worth a half point by our numbers.

· Chargers LT Rashawn Slater ranks 6th in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will limit edge rusher Micah Parsons, who has 29 pressures (3rd).

· Justin Herbert will need to get the ball out fast and his best quick route WR Keenan Allen has a favorable matchup on the inside. Dallas nickelback Jourdan Lewis is surrendering 2.10 yards per slot cover snap and Allen is averaging 0.73 EPA/target (7th).

· Los Angeles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will also slow down the Cowboys pass rush with the ground game especially if RB Austin Ekeler is able to suit up for his first game since week 1. Dallas is allowing a 49.2% rush success rate (31st) and starting LB Leighton Vander Esch is on injured reserve after he suffered a neck injury against the 49ers.

· Our model favors the Cowboys by 5.5 points, with a predicted total of 50.6 points.