Game Analysis

Note: Dallas is now -3.5 -110 and is a Strong Opinion (0.5 Stars) at that price.

1-Star Best Bet – *Dallas (-3.5 Even) over LAS VEGAS

• The betting market has the Dallas defense implied as the worst in the NFL, but I disagree. The Cowboys are allowing 6.1 yppl (29th), but they are getting healthier and traded for three-time Pro Bowl interior defender Quinnen Williams. We have Dallas rated as the 24th defense with the current personnel.
• Cowboys LB DeMarvion Overshown and rookie CB Shavon Revel will make their season debuts on Monday night, taking snaps from LB Kenneth Murray and backup cornerbacks Reddy Steward and Trikweze Bridges. Murray has only a 4.1% run stop rate (6th-worst). Steward and Bridges are surrendering a combined 1.54 yards per cover snap.
• The trade for Williams gives Dallas one of the best interior pass-rushing trios in the NFL. Williams has beaten a league-high 57 double teams for a pressure since 2022, while Kenny Clark and Osa Odighizuwa rank 16th and 18th, respectively, in pass-rushing efficiency.
• The Raiders just lost their best remaining offensive lineman for weeks in RG Jackson Powers-Johnson, who was allowing a 5.1% pressure rate. Backup guard Alex Cappa is surrendering a 12.6% pressure rate, and he will struggle with Williams, Clark, and Odighizuwa.
• Additionally, Las Vegas LG Dylan Parham played only 33 snaps last week due to a high ankle sprain, according to head coach Pete Carroll’s post-game comments. Parham is going to suit up for this game, but likely won’t be pushing off the injured ankle at full capacity, further weakening the Raiders’ interior offensive line.
• Las Vegas left tackle Kolton Miller is sidelined, and backup Stone Forsythe ranks 53rd in pass blocking efficiency out of 61 qualifying tackles since taking over the job in week 5.
• The Raiders traded WR Jakobi Meyers at the deadline, and Geno Smith averaged only 3.6 yards per pass play last week in his first game without Meyers with the banged-up offensive line.
• Dak Prescott is one of four quarterbacks with a Turnover Worthy Play Rate below 2%. I expect Prescott to take care of the ball while throwing downfield to WR George Pickens, who has 7 receptions with at least 20 air yards (4th).
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 47.4 points, and Dallas tends to play better against mediocre and bad teams (now 34-12-1 in the Prescott era favored by more than 3 points against a .500 or worse team). The Raiders, meanwhile, apply to an 11-45 ATS Monday night home team angle.

Dallas is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3.5 -105 or better (or -3 to -125 odds) and would be a Strong Opinion to -3.5 -115 odds.