Game Analysis

HOUSTON (-3) vs Dallas

This is an interesting battle between a bad offense, good defense team and a good offense, bad defense team.

Houston ranks #24 and #25 in EPA per play and success rate on offense despite facing defenses that are collectively below average and playing all 3 games in dome stadiums. The Texans should be getting back their top WR Nico Collins this week (he’s missed the last 2 games), which will help, and they should move the ball well against a banged-up Cowboys’ defense that is last in the league in both EPA and success. Dallas traded for Steelers’ star CB Joey Porter Jr. and he may play this weekend.

The Dallas offense has been good (#5 in EPA/play and #7 in success rate) and they may have hit their stride last week in Brazil after struggling a bit the first two weeks. Houston’s defense is still elite despite allowing 25 points per game and ranking #15 in EPA per play allowed. More indicative of their quality is the 37.6% success rate allowed, which ranks 3^rd best in the league and is better than last season’s dominating unit. Even more impressive is that Houston has faced teams (Buffalo, Cincy and Indy) and conditions (all 3 games in domes) that are more than 4 points tougher than average for a defense.

My ratings favor Houston by 4.1 points with 47.9 total points.