Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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All indications are that the Brownies will return to Kessler as QB1, who has been released from concussion protocol and is practicing. Although the Browns are winless not because of the QB position, but because of the defense that is 31st in the league (adjusted for defense), giving up 6.4 yards per play and a 48.6% success rate. What has been glossed over in the Cowboys 6-1 start is a defense that ranks 20th overall and 22nd against the run. Cleveland actually has the 2nd ranked rushing attack from a YPR perspective and Dallas is not too far behind at 5th. Look for Cleveland and Dallas to both go to the ground to keep bad defenses off the field. The advanced stats model sees value on the Under, so UNDER (48.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to Browns (+7.5).

Team Stats
Game Log

Cowboys
Browns

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.0 40.4
Succ Pass Plays 52.9% 49.6%
Sack Rate 4.8% 4.7%
Int Rate 0.9% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 16.5% 15.3%
Big Pass Yards 33.6% 31.0%
NYPP 7.7 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 35.4 21.9
RB YPR 4.6 4.7
Stuff Rate 18.7% 27.2%
Succ Rush Plays 53.3% 48.3%
Big Rush Yards 46.3% 49.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.3

Game

All Snaps 68.4 62.3
Early Down Succ 56.8% 50.9%
Succ Rate 53.0% 49.5%
Big Yards Rate 39.4% 35.3%
Yards Per Play 6.1 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 26.6
Run Ratio 52.0% 35.7%
Starting Field Pos 28.4 27.5
Game Control 5.6 -5.6

Points 26.9 18.6

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.1 36.0
Succ Pass Plays 42.7% 48.8%
Sack Rate 7.0% 5.4%
Int Rate 3.1% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 17.7% 19.5%
Big Pass Yards 38.6% 47.9%
NYPP 6.0 7.8

Rush

Rush Plays 23.4 30.8
RB YPR 4.5 4.6
Stuff Rate 31.9% 18.2%
Succ Rush Plays 39.7% 48.4%
Big Rush Yards 54.7% 39.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.8

Game

All Snaps 63.5 66.8
Early Down Succ 42.6% 49.4%
Succ Rate 41.8% 48.6%
Big Yards Rate 47.6% 46.9%
Yards Per Play 5.6 6.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.0 29.1
Run Ratio 36.9% 46.2%
Starting Field Pos 23.9 30.0
Game Control -4.3 4.3

Points 19.8 29.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYG	19 – 20 L	1.8	46.5% / 50.0%	0.0% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	5.3 / 6.8	50.0% / 50.0%	23.3% / 16.7%	3.4 / 4.7	73 / 54	44.6% / 50.0%	47.9% / 50.0%	13.7% / 43.7%	4.5 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	41.1% / 44.4%	28.3 / 24.3
2	@WAS	27 – 23 W	1.7	52.9% / 51.1%	11.8% / 4.3%	0.0% / 2.2%	8.2 / 7.4	50.0% / 58.8%	26.7% / 17.6%	3.4 / 4.8	64 / 64	51.0% / 56.9%	51.6% / 53.1%	33.4% / 49.5%	5.9 / 6.8	1.6% / 0.0%	46.9% / 26.6%	27.7 / 31.0
3	CHI	31 – 17 W	13.6	62.5% / 53.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.3 / 6.7	73.2% / 26.7%	12.2% / 46.7%	4.9 / 4.9	65 / 62	73.6% / 51.0%	69.2% / 46.8%	33.8% / 45.4%	6.9 / 6.3	1.5% / 3.2%	63.1% / 24.2%	30.7 / 26.3
4	@SF	24 – 17 W	-3.0	58.8% / 45.8%	5.9% / 4.2%	0.0% / 4.3%	6.9 / 7.9	54.3% / 50.0%	6.5% / 33.3%	4.3 / 3.6	80 / 54	68.4% / 48.6%	56.3% / 48.1%	33.2% / 47.0%	5.4 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	57.5% / 55.6%	28.0 / 25.4
5	CIN	28 – 14 W	17.7	56.0% / 51.1%	4.0% / 8.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.9 / 5.5	41.2% / 52.6%	14.7% / 5.3%	5.4 / 5.1	59 / 64	55.8% / 52.9%	47.5% / 51.6%	48.3% / 23.5%	6.9 / 5.4	1.7% / 0.0%	57.6% / 29.7%	26.2 / 22.0
6	@GB	30 – 16 W	8.6	55.2% / 53.5%	6.9% / 2.3%	3.7% / 2.4%	8.0 / 6.8	54.5% / 37.5%	15.2% / 37.5%	5.8 / 3.3	62 / 67	59.2% / 45.3%	54.8% / 47.8%	50.5% / 22.0%	6.8 / 5.6	1.6% / 4.5%	53.2% / 35.8%	31.4 / 33.1
8	PHI	29 – 23 W	-1.5	38.1% / 42.6%	4.8% / 6.4%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.5 / 4.1	50.0% / 62.5%	32.4% / 33.3%	5.5 / 4.0	76 / 71	45.0% / 51.8%	43.4% / 49.3%	62.8% / 16.2%	6.1 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.4%	44.7% / 33.8%	26.7 / 30.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@PHI	10 – 29 L	-7.9	27.6% / 43.6%	10.3% / 5.1%	3.8% / 0.0%	5.8 / 6.9	38.1% / 50.0%	28.6% / 11.8%	5.7 / 3.9	50 / 73	36.8% / 49.1%	32.0% / 46.6%	71.9% / 30.0%	5.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	42.0% / 46.6%	20.8 / 38.2
2	BAL	20 – 25 L	7.1	47.2% / 46.7%	8.3% / 0.0%	6.1% / 4.4%	6.7 / 6.7	26.1% / 30.8%	43.5% / 19.2%	6.3 / 3.1	59 / 71	32.6% / 35.2%	39.0% / 40.8%	53.2% / 37.2%	6.6 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	39.0% / 36.6%	25.7 / 27.5
3	@MIA	24 – 30 L	-2.6	40.5% / 53.8%	9.5% / 2.6%	0.0% / 5.3%	6.2 / 8.0	51.5% / 56.0%	24.2% / 12.0%	5.2 / 4.6	75 / 64	51.7% / 61.1%	45.3% / 54.7%	58.7% / 47.2%	5.7 / 6.7	1.3% / 1.6%	44.0% / 39.1%	26.8 / 28.7
4	@WAS	20 – 31 L	-3.5	55.0% / 56.7%	2.5% / 10.0%	2.6% / 3.7%	5.4 / 5.2	57.1% / 61.5%	21.4% / 23.1%	5.8 / 5.6	68 / 56	54.5% / 60.4%	55.9% / 58.9%	27.6% / 45.2%	5.6 / 5.4	2.9% / 0.0%	41.2% / 46.4%	27.6 / 31.9
5	NE	13 – 33 L	-15.1	45.9% / 47.6%	5.4% / 2.4%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.4 / 9.6	13.0% / 42.1%	39.1% / 15.8%	1.2 / 2.6	60 / 80	34.1% / 46.6%	33.3% / 45.0%	28.5% / 54.3%	4.4 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	38.3% / 47.5%	20.7 / 30.6
6	@TEN	26 – 28 L	-6.2	43.8% / 57.7%	12.5% / 7.7%	0.0% / 4.2%	6.3 / 10.4	33.3% / 37.5%	40.0% / 25.0%	2.7 / 4.3	63 / 58	44.7% / 46.5%	41.3% / 46.6%	42.8% / 47.8%	5.4 / 7.0	0.0% / 0.0%	23.8% / 55.2%	20.8 / 32.7
7	@CIN	17 – 31 L	-8.9	43.2% / 48.4%	5.4% / 9.7%	5.7% / 0.0%	4.6 / 9.3	53.8% / 63.3%	19.2% / 10.0%	6.9 / 9.0	63 / 61	49.0% / 56.9%	47.6% / 55.7%	44.6% / 57.8%	5.6 / 9.2	0.0% / 1.6%	41.3% / 49.2%	26.8 / 20.0
8	NYJ	28 – 31 L	3.1	38.5% / 36.1%	1.9% / 5.6%	3.9% / 0.0%	6.5 / 6.2	44.4% / 45.7%	38.9% / 28.6%	3.8 / 4.9	70 / 71	37.0% / 39.6%	40.0% / 40.8%	53.3% / 55.8%	5.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	25.7% / 49.3%	22.3 / 30.8

Dallas Cowboys @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Nov 6

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis