Game Analysis
Note: The Under 43.5 was released to subscribers as a Best Bet early this week and is no longer a Best Bet at 42.5 or lower – although I’d still lean under.
1-Star Best Bet – *Under (43.5) – Dallas (-3.5) vs CINCINNATI
Cincinnati’s offense has been propped up in Brandon Allen’s two starts by a kickoff return against the Giants and a 72-yard Tyler Boyd touchdown on a busted play versus the Dolphins. The Bengals averaged just 3.2 yppp last week excluding the Boyd touchdown and Allen didn’t complete a pass thrown 10 or more yards in the air. Even counting the Boyd TD, Allen is averaging just 4.3 yards per pass play this season and I do not expect him to improve greatly against an underrated Dallas pass defense that is much better with rookie CB Trevon Diggs on the sideline with a fractured foot. Our metrics have the Cowboys pass defense ranked in the top half of the NFL. Jourdan Lewis is allowing just 1.00 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th) and the nickelback should shut down Tyler Boyd on the inside.
The offensive tackle play in this game is setting up to be atrocious. Allen and Andy Dalton will have to contend with plenty of collapsing pockets. Dallas has played most of the season without both starting tackles Tyron Smith and La”el Collins. Backup tackle Terence Steele ranks 54th out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he was benched three games ago in favor of sliding All-Pro guard Zack Martin to right tackle. However, now Martin is out with a calf injury and Steele was back on the field on Tuesday night. The Bengals, meanwhile, will be without starting left tackle Jonah Williams for the rest of the season due to a knee injury and backup Hakeem Adeniji won’t be able to contain edge defender Aldon Smith, who is averaging an impressive 3.3 pressures per game. On the other side, RT Bobby Hart ranks 53rd out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he has no chance of staying in front of DE Demarcus Lawrence (15th in pass rushing efficiency).
Cincinnati’s secondary will get a boost this week in time to face the skilled Dallas wide receivers as CB Darius Phillips has been activated after missing the last four games with a groin injury. Phillips has allowed 0.55 yards per cover snap less than backup CB LeShaun Sims, so the Bengals’ pass defense should be better than it’s been lately.
Our model favors the Cowboys by 5.4 points, with a predicted total of 40.1 points, and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 43.5 points (at -115 odds or better) and a Strong Opinion under 43 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.4
33.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.7%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.0%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.1%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.8%
44.8%
-
NYPP
5.8
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.7
31.8
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.0%
15.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.3%
52.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.7%
36.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
71.1
65.7
-
Early Down Succ
53.6%
52.0%
-
Succ Rate
50.6%
50.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.8%
44.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
23.8
29.3
-
Run Ratio
38.2%
48.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
32.4
-
Game Control
-6.0
6.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.9
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.6%
49.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.7%
2.9%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
19.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.1%
39.6%
-
NYPP
5.3
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.0
28.7
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
22.2%
17.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.6%
48.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.0%
50.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.9
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
46.7%
51.7%
-
Succ Rate
44.9%
49.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
27.9%
44.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
27.2
-
Run Ratio
35.9%
43.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
29.0
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LA |
17 – 20 L |
-3.4 |
52.4% /
56.3% |
7.1% /
3.1% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
5.8 /
8.4 |
59.3% /
57.5% |
11.1% /
12.5% |
5.0 /
3.8 |
69 /
72 |
63.0% /
57.7% |
55.1% /
56.9% |
30.8% /
40.3% |
5.5 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
55.6% |
27.1 /
29.0 |
| 2 |
ATL |
40 – 39 W |
-12.6 |
58.0% /
44.7% |
2.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
7.0 |
64.5% /
47.1% |
12.9% /
17.6% |
4.0 /
3.3 |
81 /
72 |
63.1% /
43.4% |
60.5% /
45.8% |
46.1% /
38.2% |
7.0 /
5.3 |
3.7% /
0.0% |
38.3% /
47.2% |
24.4 /
40.8 |
| 3 |
@SEA |
31 – 38 L |
-4.7 |
47.5% /
50.0% |
3.4% /
9.1% |
3.5% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.7 |
42.9% /
30.8% |
14.3% /
23.1% |
2.9 /
4.5 |
80 /
70 |
45.2% /
43.6% |
46.3% /
42.9% |
58.0% /
51.9% |
6.5 /
5.9 |
1.3% /
1.4% |
26.3% /
37.1% |
18.9 /
32.9 |
| 4 |
CLE |
38 – 49 L |
-12.0 |
60.7% /
48.5% |
4.9% /
6.1% |
1.7% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
6.1 |
55.6% /
72.5% |
16.7% /
10.0% |
4.7 /
7.7 |
79 /
73 |
60.6% /
67.8% |
59.5% /
61.6% |
26.3% /
46.9% |
7.2 /
7.0 |
2.5% /
0.0% |
22.8% /
54.8% |
22.8 /
31.8 |
| 5 |
NYG |
37 – 34 W |
-1.6 |
62.9% /
40.0% |
5.7% /
5.7% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
6.0 |
51.7% /
48.1% |
20.7% /
22.2% |
4.3 /
3.3 |
64 /
62 |
58.2% /
41.7% |
57.8% /
43.5% |
32.8% /
24.3% |
6.3 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
45.3% /
43.5% |
23.1 /
33.2 |
| 6 |
ARI |
10 – 38 L |
-16.2 |
43.9% /
32.0% |
5.3% /
4.0% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
48.1% /
71.4% |
22.2% /
8.6% |
3.6 /
7.5 |
84 /
60 |
43.9% /
55.6% |
45.2% /
55.0% |
25.0% /
71.5% |
4.1 /
7.3 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
32.1% /
58.3% |
23.8 /
33.3 |
| 7 |
@WAS |
3 – 25 L |
-13.9 |
35.7% /
44.4% |
21.4% /
7.4% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
2.1 /
7.0 |
42.3% /
51.3% |
38.5% /
10.3% |
3.2 /
5.3 |
54 /
66 |
43.9% /
47.9% |
38.9% /
48.5% |
31.0% /
49.9% |
2.6 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.1% /
59.1% |
24.3 /
27.6 |
| 8 |
@PHI |
9 – 23 L |
-2.1 |
36.4% /
37.5% |
9.1% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
3.0 /
3.2 |
54.3% /
50.0% |
34.3% /
19.2% |
3.8 /
4.6 |
79 /
58 |
50.0% /
47.8% |
44.3% /
43.1% |
20.4% /
35.6% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
2.5% /
3.4% |
44.3% /
44.8% |
33.2 /
33.6 |
| 9 |
PIT |
19 – 24 L |
4.1 |
42.5% /
53.3% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
6.9 |
45.2% /
27.8% |
29.0% /
22.2% |
4.6 /
2.6 |
71 /
63 |
44.2% /
50.0% |
43.7% /
46.0% |
52.7% /
31.8% |
5.1 /
5.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.7% /
28.6% |
31.5 /
30.9 |
| 11 |
@MIN |
31 – 28 W |
1.6 |
54.5% /
56.3% |
3.0% /
6.3% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
9.5 |
61.3% /
65.5% |
3.2% /
13.8% |
5.8 /
4.3 |
64 /
61 |
62.5% /
62.0% |
57.8% /
60.7% |
34.0% /
53.7% |
5.9 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
48.4% /
47.5% |
37.9 /
23.5 |
| 12 |
WAS |
16 – 41 L |
-4.7 |
41.0% /
56.7% |
10.3% /
10.0% |
2.9% /
3.7% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
61.1% /
50.0% |
16.7% /
11.1% |
3.3 /
5.1 |
57 /
66 |
55.0% /
54.0% |
47.4% /
53.0% |
36.4% /
43.2% |
4.3 /
5.1 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
31.6% /
54.5% |
30.5 /
40.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LAC |
13 – 16 L |
2.4 |
43.6% /
37.5% |
7.7% /
6.3% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
6.5 |
50.0% /
41.0% |
17.9% /
20.5% |
4.4 /
4.0 |
67 /
71 |
48.1% /
42.3% |
46.3% /
39.4% |
12.5% /
39.8% |
4.4 /
5.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
54.9% |
33.6 /
25.9 |
| 2 |
@CLE |
30 – 35 L |
-7.1 |
48.4% /
47.8% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
4.5 /
9.5 |
62.5% /
60.0% |
25.0% /
11.4% |
2.8 /
6.1 |
88 /
58 |
51.6% /
56.5% |
52.3% /
55.2% |
6.5% /
54.6% |
4.0 /
7.5 |
1.1% /
0.0% |
27.3% /
60.3% |
25.3 /
38.3 |
| 3 |
@PHI |
23 – 23 T |
-0.2 |
42.3% /
38.0% |
15.4% /
6.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
4.9 /
4.1 |
38.9% /
55.6% |
33.3% /
16.7% |
2.7 /
4.9 |
70 /
86 |
46.4% /
44.6% |
41.4% /
45.3% |
25.7% /
36.5% |
4.3 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.7% /
41.9% |
30.2 /
24.6 |
| 4 |
JAC |
33 – 25 W |
3.7 |
54.1% /
60.5% |
2.7% /
7.0% |
2.8% /
2.5% |
8.1 /
7.9 |
61.8% /
55.0% |
17.6% /
15.0% |
6.0 /
4.5 |
71 /
63 |
63.2% /
65.4% |
57.7% /
58.7% |
48.1% /
46.6% |
7.1 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.9% /
31.7% |
33.0 /
24.0 |
| 5 |
@BAL |
3 – 27 L |
-15.6 |
32.4% /
36.8% |
18.9% /
2.6% |
3.3% /
2.7% |
3.6 /
4.5 |
28.6% /
45.8% |
21.4% /
16.7% |
2.5 /
6.7 |
65 /
62 |
32.6% /
38.6% |
30.8% /
40.3% |
12.7% /
42.2% |
3.2 /
5.4 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
38.7% |
26.1 /
32.3 |
| 6 |
@IND |
27 – 31 L |
6.2 |
43.9% /
53.3% |
4.9% /
2.2% |
2.6% /
2.3% |
7.3 /
8.2 |
43.8% /
40.0% |
28.1% /
20.0% |
3.1 /
3.9 |
73 /
60 |
41.5% /
47.9% |
43.8% /
50.0% |
39.4% /
50.7% |
5.5 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
43.8% /
25.0% |
23.7 /
29.0 |
| 7 |
CLE |
34 – 37 L |
2.4 |
63.5% /
72.4% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
2.1% /
3.4% |
7.4 /
10.9 |
57.1% /
36.4% |
14.3% /
22.7% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
73 /
51 |
60.3% /
57.1% |
61.6% /
56.9% |
32.5% /
57.3% |
6.4 /
7.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
43.1% |
31.7 /
26.9 |
| 8 |
TEN |
31 – 20 W |
7.8 |
62.2% /
51.6% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
6.7 /
7.2 |
50.0% /
82.8% |
15.6% /
6.9% |
3.7 /
7.5 |
69 /
60 |
52.8% /
68.0% |
56.5% /
66.7% |
23.4% /
47.2% |
5.3 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.4% /
48.3% |
27.3 /
20.7 |
| 10 |
@PIT |
10 – 36 L |
-14.8 |
29.5% /
43.5% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
7.2 |
52.4% /
20.0% |
9.5% /
45.0% |
6.6 /
2.2 |
65 /
66 |
45.8% /
36.0% |
36.9% /
36.4% |
50.9% /
32.1% |
5.0 /
5.7 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
30.3% |
20.9 /
35.5 |
| 11 |
@WAS |
9 – 20 L |
-4.6 |
43.8% /
40.7% |
8.3% /
7.4% |
2.3% /
4.0% |
4.2 /
6.0 |
38.9% /
55.9% |
27.8% /
11.8% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
66 /
61 |
49.0% /
56.5% |
42.4% /
49.2% |
19.9% /
51.1% |
4.1 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
27.3% /
55.7% |
23.5 /
34.0 |
| 12 |
NYG |
17 – 19 L |
-1.5 |
32.3% /
39.5% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
6.4 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
20.0% /
14.3% |
2.7 /
3.4 |
46 /
80 |
35.3% /
44.4% |
34.8% /
45.0% |
9.7% /
33.2% |
3.4 /
4.8 |
4.3% /
1.3% |
32.6% /
52.5% |
30.4 /
30.3 |
| 13 |
@MIA |
7 – 19 L |
-2.7 |
27.3% /
66.7% |
18.2% /
0.0% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.6 |
47.1% /
39.3% |
35.3% /
14.3% |
2.4 /
3.9 |
50 /
67 |
33.3% /
63.0% |
34.0% /
55.2% |
53.1% /
36.5% |
3.9 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
34.0% /
41.8% |
24.2 /
26.3 |
Dallas Cowboys
@ 
Cincinnati Bengals