Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – CHICAGO (+1) over Dallas

• First of all, I want to confirm I am accounting for Chicago’s injuries on defense with CB Jaylon Johnson, linebacker TJ Edwards, and nickelback Kyler Gordon out. Those three are worth 1.9 points by our metrics and we have the Bears’ defense rated 27th.
• However, there is still value on Chicago because Dallas is missing crucial players as well. Center Cooper Beebe is expected to miss extended time with an ankle sprain, and former All-Pro CB DaRon Bland is out.
• The Cowboys are surrendering a 64% success rate to opposing WRs (30th) with CB Trevon Diggs banged up and Bland sidelined, and they will struggle as Chicago’s offense targets WRs on 69% of passes (7th-most).
• Caleb Williams is struggling for answers versus the blitz in his new offense, but he’s 6th-best relatively against a standard pass rush, and Dallas’ defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus isn’t likely to test Williams’ weakness versus the blitz. Eberflus has two straight seasons with a blitz rate below 30% before he was fired in Chicago, and the Cowboys have started this year with an 82% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest). Dallas did add edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, but I’m expecting him to only get around 25 snaps in his first week.
• Dak Prescott is the opposite of Caleb. Prescott is elite at diagnosing blitzes pre-snap, but ranks 29th relatively against a standard pass rush, and Brian Schottenheimer’s offense was 32nd relatively against a standard pass rush in 2024. The Bears aren’t blitzing under new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen as they have a 78% standard pass rush rate (8th-highest).
• Chicago’s ground game is averaging -0.34 EPA/rush (31st), mostly because RB D’Andre Swift has been horrible thus far, with only a 7% missed tackle forced rate. Last year, Swift was more than double that at a 15% forced missed tackle rate, and I expect him to hit more breakaway runs in this game.
• Our model favors Chicago by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 51.9 points, and the matchups are significantly in favor of the Bears.

Chicago is a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.