Game Analysis

Dallas (-3) vs CAROLINA

• Dallas was faded heavily on gameday last week, moving from favorite to dog when it was announced they would be without four starters on the offensive line, to go along with the continued absence of WR CeeDee Lamb.
• The Cowboys went out and averaged 0.35 EPA/play in week 5 (3rd), and it looks like they’ll be getting two starters back on the offensive line.
• However, Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero’s coverage structures perfectly counter Schottenheimer’s offensive DNA. Two-high shells and quarters eliminate the deep crossers and posts that power Brian Schottenheimer’s play-action success.
• Dallas has a 30% play action rate (6th-highest), and Carolina’s defense ranks 7th relatively versus play action compared to standard dropbacks.
• The Cowboys lead the NFL with a 52% rush success rate, but they could struggle in the ground game as the Panthers’ defense held the Dolphins to 14 yards on 13 designed runs last week.
• Carolina interior defender A’Shawn Robinson has 12 pressures (20th), and he will collapse the pocket across from backup C Brock Hoffman, who ranks 30th in pass blocking efficiency out of 31 qualifying centers.
• Dak Prescott will need to get the ball out quickly to TE Jake Ferguson, who is averaging 1.75 yards per route run (6th). The Panthers are surrendering a league-high 0.95 EPA/target to tight ends.
• Carolina’s offensive line ranks 18th in pass blocking efficiency over the last 3 weeks without Robert Hunt and Austin Corbett, and Bryce Young should have time in the pocket against this Dallas defense.
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 4.2 points, with a predicted total of 48.4, but the matchup favors the Panthers. I used Carolina in my spread pool.