Game Analysis
Lean – Dallas (+3/+3.5) over ATLANTA
Dallas LB Leighton Vander Esch had a great game on Sunday night and now ranks 2nd among all linebackers with an 11.7% run stop rate on this season. However, with all of the Vander Esch plaudits, I think the value of Sean Lee is getting lost as Vander Esch lacks the pre-snap communication of Lee and the Cowboys once again struggled to defend passes in the middle of the field last week – allowing Zach Ertz to gain 145 yards and 2 touchdowns. We may see Falcons’ TE Austin Hooper, who saw 11 targets last week, in line for an excellent game with star WR Julio Jones, whose 2.99 yards per route run ranks 2nd, likely held in check by Dallas CB Byron Jones, who is conceding just 0.62 yards per cover snap (4th).
Pro Bowl middle linebacker Deion Jones was activated for the Falcons and Atlanta’s 17th-rated rush defense should improve if he plays (questionable as of Thursday night) – just in time to face Ezekiel Elliott, who picked up another 151 yards on the ground last week. Elliott also ranks 2nd on the Cowboys in targets and he was in line to do some damage in the receiving game as the Falcons allow 7.1 yards per target to opposing running backs (25th). However, Jones surrendered only 0.74 yards per cover snap in 2017 (7th) and Elliott may be bottled up if the linebacker is able to suit up for the first time since week 1 (check his status).
Amari Cooper is not transforming this Cowboys offense despite being featured heavily with 18 targets in his 2 games. In fact, Cooper is gaining less yards per target so far in Dallas than he did in Oakland. Dak Prescott should have plenty of time to find Cooper downfield though, as Atlanta’s pass rush hasn’t been great this season with the regression of Vic Beasley. Takkarist McKinley is the Falcons only player above 5 sacks, but he is likely to be shut down by Tyron Smith, one of three tackles yet to concede a sack with at least 300 pass blocking snaps.
Our model favors the Falcons by just 2.1 points and the Falcons apply to a negative 35-92-2 ATS situation this week. I’ll lean with Dallas at +3 points or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.8
34.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.3%
51.2%
-
Sack Rate
10.4%
8.1%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.8%
18.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.1%
34.5%
-
NYPP
6.2
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.3
28.0
-
RB YPR
4.7
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
22.1%
27.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.3%
41.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.6%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.0
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
60.1
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
47.0%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
44.9%
46.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.6%
36.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.5
29.6
-
Run Ratio
45.4%
44.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.3
29.5
-
Game Control
1.5
-1.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.0
39.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.1%
56.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
4.3%
-
Int Rate
0.9%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.2%
31.5%
-
NYPP
8.0
8.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.4
23.9
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
28.1%
21.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.6%
52.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.9%
53.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
5.1
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
62.9
-
Early Down Succ
49.2%
52.7%
-
Succ Rate
50.3%
53.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.2%
39.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.5
6.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
29.0
-
Run Ratio
35.6%
39.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.5
26.6
-
Game Control
1.2
-1.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CAR |
8 – 16 L |
-6.7 |
37.1% / 50.0% |
17.1% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 5.2 |
26.1% / 44.7% |
17.4% / 21.1% |
4.1 / 3.9 |
58 / 66 |
38.6% / 58.7% |
32.8% / 47.0% |
22.7% / 28.7% |
4.0 / 4.5 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
39.7% / 57.6% |
21.4 / 38.1 |
2 |
NYG |
20 – 13 W |
10.5 |
36.0% / 36.0% |
0.0% / 12.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 4.4 |
59.3% / 47.1% |
14.8% / 35.3% |
5.2 / 2.1 |
52 / 67 |
56.8% / 33.3% |
48.1% / 38.8% |
48.3% / 18.4% |
5.8 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
51.9% / 25.4% |
27.6 / 27.9 |
3 |
@SEA |
13 – 24 L |
-8.3 |
28.2% / 42.9% |
12.8% / 7.1% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 6.5 |
52.6% / 30.0% |
15.8% / 30.0% |
8.7 / 2.9 |
58 / 68 |
39.5% / 34.0% |
36.2% / 35.3% |
51.2% / 34.8% |
5.2 / 4.4 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 58.8% |
25.9 / 27.2 |
4 |
DET |
26 – 24 W |
1.7 |
50.0% / 54.5% |
10.0% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 8.7 |
55.6% / 40.0% |
22.2% / 25.0% |
5.1 / 4.8 |
66 / 53 |
56.9% / 47.6% |
53.0% / 49.1% |
51.6% / 64.1% |
6.3 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.5% / 37.7% |
21.8 / 23.8 |
5 |
@HOU |
16 – 19 L |
0.3 |
65.0% / 79.4% |
10.0% / 2.9% |
11.1% / 3.0% |
9.7 / 11.0 |
36.7% / 32.3% |
30.0% / 32.3% |
3.3 / 2.8 |
50 / 65 |
43.2% / 53.3% |
48.0% / 56.9% |
52.9% / 30.1% |
5.9 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
60.0% / 47.7% |
30.8 / 27.9 |
6 |
JAC |
40 – 7 W |
18.5 |
36.7% / 48.3% |
10.0% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.7 / 4.8 |
45.2% / 38.9% |
23.8% / 16.7% |
4.9 / 3.6 |
72 / 47 |
39.6% / 48.6% |
41.7% / 44.7% |
45.0% / 32.4% |
5.3 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 2.1% |
58.3% / 38.3% |
37.8 / 26.4 |
7 |
@WAS |
17 – 20 L |
-4.7 |
41.0% / 42.3% |
10.3% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 6.7 |
54.5% / 40.6% |
27.3% / 40.6% |
3.3 / 4.1 |
61 / 58 |
48.9% / 46.7% |
45.9% / 41.4% |
45.8% / 46.6% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
36.1% / 55.2% |
21.4 / 33.4 |
9 |
TEN |
14 – 28 L |
-2.1 |
45.9% / 51.5% |
13.5% / 12.1% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 6.5 |
57.9% / 47.5% |
26.3% / 15.0% |
3.8 / 3.2 |
56 / 73 |
52.3% / 47.2% |
50.0% / 49.3% |
43.1% / 43.6% |
5.3 / 4.7 |
1.8% / 2.7% |
33.9% / 54.8% |
33.8 / 28.6 |
10 |
@PHI |
27 – 20 W |
4.0 |
50.0% / 55.6% |
10.0% / 4.4% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
6.0 / 7.8 |
46.4% / 56.3% |
21.4% / 31.3% |
6.1 / 4.4 |
68 / 61 |
47.1% / 61.2% |
48.5% / 55.7% |
50.2% / 32.1% |
6.0 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.2% / 26.2% |
25.6 / 32.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@PHI |
12 – 18 L |
0.9 |
31.9% / 32.4% |
8.5% / 5.4% |
2.3% / 2.9% |
4.8 / 3.2 |
44.4% / 53.6% |
27.8% / 21.4% |
4.1 / 4.1 |
65 / 65 |
38.8% / 40.4% |
35.4% / 41.5% |
49.5% / 20.6% |
4.6 / 3.6 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
27.7% / 43.1% |
35.2 / 22.2 |
2 |
CAR |
31 – 24 W |
5.0 |
67.9% / 53.2% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
3.6% / 2.2% |
9.7 / 6.8 |
50.0% / 66.7% |
31.3% / 11.1% |
5.3 / 6.7 |
60 / 65 |
59.2% / 58.5% |
58.3% / 56.9% |
55.9% / 44.4% |
7.4 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.3% / 27.7% |
26.2 / 19.5 |
3 |
NO |
37 – 43 L |
-0.3 |
63.2% / 56.0% |
7.9% / 2.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 7.8 |
21.7% / 53.6% |
43.5% / 14.3% |
2.1 / 5.1 |
61 / 78 |
52.1% / 57.4% |
47.5% / 55.1% |
36.3% / 37.9% |
6.7 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.7% / 35.9% |
24.1 / 29.8 |
4 |
CIN |
36 – 37 L |
-0.5 |
61.9% / 52.3% |
7.1% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
9.6 / 7.0 |
45.8% / 56.5% |
12.5% / 8.7% |
3.8 / 4.3 |
66 / 67 |
52.0% / 50.9% |
56.1% / 53.7% |
37.2% / 33.4% |
7.5 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.4% / 34.3% |
32.4 / 33.0 |
5 |
@PIT |
17 – 41 L |
-8.9 |
56.8% / 84.2% |
16.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
7.1 / 13.2 |
36.8% / 50.0% |
31.6% / 15.6% |
3.3 / 4.1 |
56 / 51 |
39.6% / 51.1% |
50.0% / 62.7% |
36.1% / 39.3% |
5.8 / 7.5 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
33.9% / 62.7% |
20.3 / 36.1 |
6 |
TB |
34 – 29 W |
6.3 |
57.1% / 61.9% |
2.4% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
8.2 / 9.3 |
40.9% / 55.0% |
36.4% / 25.0% |
3.2 / 6.2 |
64 / 62 |
49.0% / 59.3% |
51.6% / 59.7% |
40.9% / 32.8% |
6.5 / 8.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.4% / 32.3% |
21.9 / 28.6 |
7 |
NYG |
23 – 20 W |
4.5 |
57.1% / 50.0% |
7.1% / 9.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.5 / 8.9 |
33.3% / 35.0% |
33.3% / 40.0% |
3.2 / 3.1 |
63 / 62 |
50.0% / 46.9% |
49.2% / 45.2% |
42.2% / 60.3% |
6.7 / 7.0 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 32.3% |
19.7 / 22.4 |
9 |
@WAS |
38 – 14 W |
12.7 |
45.0% / 44.9% |
5.0% / 6.1% |
2.6% / 2.2% |
8.4 / 5.9 |
62.5% / 53.3% |
0.0% / 33.3% |
6.4 / 5.3 |
64 / 64 |
45.1% / 46.9% |
51.6% / 46.9% |
54.4% / 36.6% |
7.7 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 23.4% |
22.7 / 23.8 |
10 |
@CLE |
16 – 28 L |
-8.8 |
54.7% / 71.4% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
5.9 / 10.3 |
47.4% / 45.2% |
36.8% / 19.4% |
3.7 / 6.9 |
72 / 52 |
57.4% / 62.5% |
52.8% / 55.8% |
36.1% / 45.7% |
5.3 / 8.3 |
2.8% / 0.0% |
26.4% / 59.6% |
27.3 / 23.6 |