Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Dallas (+3/+3.5) over ATLANTA

Dallas LB Leighton Vander Esch had a great game on Sunday night and now ranks 2nd among all linebackers with an 11.7% run stop rate on this season. However, with all of the Vander Esch plaudits, I think the value of Sean Lee is getting lost as Vander Esch lacks the pre-snap communication of Lee and the Cowboys once again struggled to defend passes in the middle of the field last week – allowing Zach Ertz to gain 145 yards and 2 touchdowns. We may see Falcons’ TE Austin Hooper, who saw 11 targets last week, in line for an excellent game with star WR Julio Jones, whose 2.99 yards per route run ranks 2nd, likely held in check by Dallas CB Byron Jones, who is conceding just 0.62 yards per cover snap (4th).

Pro Bowl middle linebacker Deion Jones was activated for the Falcons and Atlanta’s 17th-rated rush defense should improve if he plays (questionable as of Thursday night) – just in time to face Ezekiel Elliott, who picked up another 151 yards on the ground last week. Elliott also ranks 2nd on the Cowboys in targets and he was in line to do some damage in the receiving game as the Falcons allow 7.1 yards per target to opposing running backs (25th). However, Jones surrendered only 0.74 yards per cover snap in 2017 (7th) and Elliott may be bottled up if the linebacker is able to suit up for the first time since week 1 (check his status).

Amari Cooper is not transforming this Cowboys offense despite being featured heavily with 18 targets in his 2 games. In fact, Cooper is gaining less yards per target so far in Dallas than he did in Oakland. Dak Prescott should have plenty of time to find Cooper downfield though, as Atlanta’s pass rush hasn’t been great this season with the regression of Vic Beasley. Takkarist McKinley is the Falcons only player above 5 sacks, but he is likely to be shut down by Tyron Smith, one of three tackles yet to concede a sack with at least 300 pass blocking snaps.

Our model favors the Falcons by just 2.1 points and the Falcons apply to a negative 35-92-2 ATS situation this week. I’ll lean with Dallas at +3 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cowboys
Falcons

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.8 34.0
Succ Pass Plays 43.3% 51.2%
Sack Rate 10.4% 8.1%
Int Rate 2.2% 1.0%
Deep Pass Rate 15.8% 18.1%
Big Pass Yards 39.1% 34.5%
NYPP 6.2 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 27.3 28.0
RB YPR 4.7 3.3
Stuff Rate 22.1% 27.5%
Succ Rush Plays 48.3% 41.9%
Big Rush Yards 49.6% 39.9%
Yards Per Rush 5.0 3.5

Game

All Snaps 60.1 62.0
Early Down Succ 47.0% 47.8%
Succ Rate 44.9% 46.5%
Big Yards Rate 45.6% 36.7%
Yards Per Play 5.4 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.5 29.6
Run Ratio 45.4% 44.6%
Starting Field Pos 27.3 29.5
Game Control 1.5 -1.5

Points 20.1 19.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CAR	8 – 16 L	-6.7	37.1% / 50.0%	17.1% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 5.2	26.1% / 44.7%	17.4% / 21.1%	4.1 / 3.9	58 / 66	38.6% / 58.7%	32.8% / 47.0%	22.7% / 28.7%	4.0 / 4.5	1.7% / 1.5%	39.7% / 57.6%	21.4 / 38.1
2	NYG	20 – 13 W	10.5	36.0% / 36.0%	0.0% / 12.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.4 / 4.4	59.3% / 47.1%	14.8% / 35.3%	5.2 / 2.1	52 / 67	56.8% / 33.3%	48.1% / 38.8%	48.3% / 18.4%	5.8 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.5%	51.9% / 25.4%	27.6 / 27.9
3	@SEA	13 – 24 L	-8.3	28.2% / 42.9%	12.8% / 7.1%	5.9% / 0.0%	3.5 / 6.5	52.6% / 30.0%	15.8% / 30.0%	8.7 / 2.9	58 / 68	39.5% / 34.0%	36.2% / 35.3%	51.2% / 34.8%	5.2 / 4.4	1.7% / 0.0%	32.8% / 58.8%	25.9 / 27.2
4	DET	26 – 24 W	1.7	50.0% / 54.5%	10.0% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 8.7	55.6% / 40.0%	22.2% / 25.0%	5.1 / 4.8	66 / 53	56.9% / 47.6%	53.0% / 49.1%	51.6% / 64.1%	6.3 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	54.5% / 37.7%	21.8 / 23.8
5	@HOU	16 – 19 L	0.3	65.0% / 79.4%	10.0% / 2.9%	11.1% / 3.0%	9.7 / 11.0	36.7% / 32.3%	30.0% / 32.3%	3.3 / 2.8	50 / 65	43.2% / 53.3%	48.0% / 56.9%	52.9% / 30.1%	5.9 / 7.1	0.0% / 1.5%	60.0% / 47.7%	30.8 / 27.9
6	JAC	40 – 7 W	18.5	36.7% / 48.3%	10.0% / 10.3%	0.0% / 3.8%	5.7 / 4.8	45.2% / 38.9%	23.8% / 16.7%	4.9 / 3.6	72 / 47	39.6% / 48.6%	41.7% / 44.7%	45.0% / 32.4%	5.3 / 4.3	0.0% / 2.1%	58.3% / 38.3%	37.8 / 26.4
7	@WAS	17 – 20 L	-4.7	41.0% / 42.3%	10.3% / 3.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.4 / 6.7	54.5% / 40.6%	27.3% / 40.6%	3.3 / 4.1	61 / 58	48.9% / 46.7%	45.9% / 41.4%	45.8% / 46.6%	5.3 / 5.3	3.3% / 0.0%	36.1% / 55.2%	21.4 / 33.4
9	TEN	14 – 28 L	-2.1	45.9% / 51.5%	13.5% / 12.1%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.1 / 6.5	57.9% / 47.5%	26.3% / 15.0%	3.8 / 3.2	56 / 73	52.3% / 47.2%	50.0% / 49.3%	43.1% / 43.6%	5.3 / 4.7	1.8% / 2.7%	33.9% / 54.8%	33.8 / 28.6
10	@PHI	27 – 20 W	4.0	50.0% / 55.6%	10.0% / 4.4%	0.0% / 2.3%	6.0 / 7.8	46.4% / 56.3%	21.4% / 31.3%	6.1 / 4.4	68 / 61	47.1% / 61.2%	48.5% / 55.7%	50.2% / 32.1%	6.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	41.2% / 26.2%	25.6 / 32.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@PHI	12 – 18 L	0.9	31.9% / 32.4%	8.5% / 5.4%	2.3% / 2.9%	4.8 / 3.2	44.4% / 53.6%	27.8% / 21.4%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	38.8% / 40.4%	35.4% / 41.5%	49.5% / 20.6%	4.6 / 3.6	0.0% / 1.5%	27.7% / 43.1%	35.2 / 22.2
2	CAR	31 – 24 W	5.0	67.9% / 53.2%	0.0% / 4.3%	3.6% / 2.2%	9.7 / 6.8	50.0% / 66.7%	31.3% / 11.1%	5.3 / 6.7	60 / 65	59.2% / 58.5%	58.3% / 56.9%	55.9% / 44.4%	7.4 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	53.3% / 27.7%	26.2 / 19.5
3	NO	37 – 43 L	-0.3	63.2% / 56.0%	7.9% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 7.8	21.7% / 53.6%	43.5% / 14.3%	2.1 / 5.1	61 / 78	52.1% / 57.4%	47.5% / 55.1%	36.3% / 37.9%	6.7 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 35.9%	24.1 / 29.8
4	CIN	36 – 37 L	-0.5	61.9% / 52.3%	7.1% / 6.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	9.6 / 7.0	45.8% / 56.5%	12.5% / 8.7%	3.8 / 4.3	66 / 67	52.0% / 50.9%	56.1% / 53.7%	37.2% / 33.4%	7.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	36.4% / 34.3%	32.4 / 33.0
5	@PIT	17 – 41 L	-8.9	56.8% / 84.2%	16.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 5.3%	7.1 / 13.2	36.8% / 50.0%	31.6% / 15.6%	3.3 / 4.1	56 / 51	39.6% / 51.1%	50.0% / 62.7%	36.1% / 39.3%	5.8 / 7.5	1.8% / 0.0%	33.9% / 62.7%	20.3 / 36.1
6	TB	34 – 29 W	6.3	57.1% / 61.9%	2.4% / 4.8%	0.0% / 5.0%	8.2 / 9.3	40.9% / 55.0%	36.4% / 25.0%	3.2 / 6.2	64 / 62	49.0% / 59.3%	51.6% / 59.7%	40.9% / 32.8%	6.5 / 8.3	0.0% / 0.0%	34.4% / 32.3%	21.9 / 28.6
7	NYG	23 – 20 W	4.5	57.1% / 50.0%	7.1% / 9.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 8.9	33.3% / 35.0%	33.3% / 40.0%	3.2 / 3.1	63 / 62	50.0% / 46.9%	49.2% / 45.2%	42.2% / 60.3%	6.7 / 7.0	1.6% / 0.0%	33.3% / 32.3%	19.7 / 22.4
9	@WAS	38 – 14 W	12.7	45.0% / 44.9%	5.0% / 6.1%	2.6% / 2.2%	8.4 / 5.9	62.5% / 53.3%	0.0% / 33.3%	6.4 / 5.3	64 / 64	45.1% / 46.9%	51.6% / 46.9%	54.4% / 36.6%	7.7 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	37.5% / 23.4%	22.7 / 23.8
10	@CLE	16 – 28 L	-8.8	54.7% / 71.4%	3.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.8%	5.9 / 10.3	47.4% / 45.2%	36.8% / 19.4%	3.7 / 6.9	72 / 52	57.4% / 62.5%	52.8% / 55.8%	36.1% / 45.7%	5.3 / 8.3	2.8% / 0.0%	26.4% / 59.6%	27.3 / 23.6

Dallas Cowboys @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 18

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis