Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – ATLANTA (-3/-2.5) vs Dallas

The Falcons are 4-4 despite being one of only 3 teams in the league with a net yppl above +1.0. Atlanta’s offense ranks 2nd in yppl but the inability to convert short yardage situations has been a problem. The Falcons went 4 of 12 on 3rd down against Carolina last week converting just 2 of 7 opportunities with only one yard to gain for a first down. I expect an offense with the Falcons quality to perform better in short yardage situations moving forward.

Ezekiel Elliott leads the league’s best rushing attack despite all the distractions this season. The Cowboys have rushed for more than 100 yards in every game since week 3, where they rushed for 99 yards against Arizona, and the only team to shut down their ground game was Denver in week 2 when they fell behind early and finished the game with just 14 rushing attempts. The Falcons allow 4.2 ypr (20th) and I expect Elliott to continue his dominance in this game.

Dallas is a good team but Atlanta actually projects as the better team when factoring out the variance and my ratings favor the Falcons by 3 ½ points. I do expect Atlanta to start playing closer to their talent level and the Falcons do apply to a 98-43-1 ATS contrary situation that plays on teams with a horrible spread record against teams with a good spread mark – as is the case with these teams. I’ll lean with Atlanta at -3 or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cowboys
Falcons

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.6 40.1
Succ Pass Plays 46.3% 47.7%
Sack Rate 3.9% 8.2%
Int Rate 1.2% 1.4%
Deep Pass Rate 15.8% 13.9%
Big Pass Yards 36.5% 37.8%
NYPP 6.9 5.6

Rush

Rush Plays 31.1 23.4
RB YPR 4.1 4.0
Stuff Rate 21.1% 22.2%
Succ Rush Plays 53.4% 47.5%
Big Rush Yards 44.2% 44.6%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.1

Game

All Snaps 64.8 63.5
Early Down Succ 52.6% 50.3%
Succ Rate 50.6% 48.1%
Big Yards Rate 39.8% 42.1%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 27.6
Run Ratio 48.4% 36.2%
Starting Field Pos 30.6 24.6
Game Control 3.8 -3.8

Points 28.3 22.3

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYG	19 – 3 W	9.1	48.7% / 48.8%	2.6% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.7 / 4.8	54.8% / 23.1%	19.4% / 7.7%	4.2 / 2.8	70 / 54	50.9% / 46.2%	51.4% / 42.6%	37.0% / 27.8%	5.6 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	44.3% / 24.1%	29.4 / 16.0
2	@DEN	17 – 42 L	-11.9	42.3% / 64.7%	3.8% / 5.9%	4.0% / 3.1%	4.4 / 5.9	28.6% / 52.5%	42.9% / 17.5%	2.9 / 4.5	66 / 74	44.7% / 59.6%	39.4% / 58.1%	14.6% / 30.7%	4.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.4%	21.2% / 54.1%	37.6 / 26.9
3	@ARI	28 – 17 W	-0.5	42.1% / 38.9%	5.3% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 5.2	33.3% / 33.3%	33.3% / 33.3%	3.7 / 2.3	46 / 75	42.9% / 35.7%	37.0% / 37.3%	62.8% / 51.5%	6.0 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	58.7% / 28.0%	29.4 / 21.6
4	LA	30 – 35 L	2.3	35.1% / 48.6%	5.4% / 2.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.8 / 6.6	55.6% / 65.6%	14.8% / 21.9%	7.0 / 5.3	64 / 69	41.7% / 63.0%	43.8% / 56.5%	52.3% / 51.6%	6.9 / 6.0	1.6% / 0.0%	42.2% / 46.4%	22.4 / 34.8
5	GB	31 – 35 L	4.2	59.5% / 51.5%	2.7% / 12.1%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.6 / 5.5	60.0% / 64.0%	14.3% / 12.0%	4.7 / 6.4	72 / 58	57.9% / 58.0%	59.7% / 56.9%	28.7% / 43.3%	5.7 / 5.9	2.8% / 1.7%	48.6% / 43.1%	25.7 / 22.3
7	@SF	40 – 10 W	20.1	51.9% / 39.5%	0.0% / 11.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.7 / 4.3	68.9% / 59.1%	11.1% / 27.3%	5.9 / 4.7	72 / 65	66.7% / 48.0%	62.5% / 46.2%	57.0% / 40.7%	7.0 / 4.5	0.0% / 4.6%	62.5% / 33.8%	34.1 / 23.0
8	@WAS	33 – 19 W	2.5	37.5% / 39.5%	8.3% / 9.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	5.8 / 5.5	61.5% / 40.0%	20.5% / 26.7%	4.3 / 3.3	63 / 58	57.4% / 40.9%	52.4% / 39.7%	24.1% / 50.5%	4.9 / 4.9	1.6% / 3.4%	61.9% / 25.9%	39.1 / 29.7
9	KC	28 – 17 W	4.3	52.9% / 50.0%	2.9% / 5.6%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.2 / 7.1	64.5% / 42.1%	12.9% / 31.6%	4.2 / 3.6	65 / 55	58.5% / 51.2%	58.5% / 47.3%	42.4% / 40.6%	5.8 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	47.7% / 34.5%	26.8 / 22.9

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CHI	23 – 17 W	2.5	50.0% / 31.8%	6.3% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 4.0	32.0% / 52.6%	24.0% / 15.8%	2.6 / 6.6	57 / 63	45.2% / 37.5%	42.1% / 38.1%	49.7% / 31.2%	6.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 30.2%	18.3 / 28.1
2	GB	34 – 23 W	12.4	51.6% / 50.9%	9.7% / 5.7%	0.0% / 2.0%	7.2 / 5.8	55.6% / 56.3%	18.5% / 25.0%	5.2 / 3.8	58 / 69	55.3% / 53.8%	53.4% / 52.2%	50.0% / 24.2%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.4%	46.6% / 23.2%	26.7 / 22.1
3	@DET	30 – 26 W	6.3	48.6% / 40.4%	5.4% / 4.3%	8.6% / 0.0%	7.5 / 5.4	48.3% / 31.6%	13.8% / 26.3%	5.2 / 3.7	66 / 66	50.9% / 41.5%	48.5% / 37.9%	34.7% / 31.8%	6.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 28.8%	27.8 / 29.7
4	BUF	17 – 23 L	-2.0	48.8% / 43.5%	2.3% / 13.0%	4.8% / 0.0%	5.6 / 7.1	58.6% / 44.7%	27.6% / 23.7%	5.1 / 3.1	72 / 61	56.1% / 47.7%	52.8% / 44.3%	30.9% / 27.6%	5.4 / 4.6	1.4% / 0.0%	40.3% / 62.3%	25.9 / 21.9
6	MIA	17 – 20 L	7.7	50.0% / 45.5%	5.6% / 0.0%	2.9% / 3.0%	6.6 / 4.6	47.4% / 46.9%	42.1% / 25.0%	5.3 / 4.3	55 / 65	48.8% / 47.9%	49.1% / 46.2%	40.1% / 23.8%	6.2 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 49.2%	20.7 / 30.2
7	@NE	7 – 23 L	-11.4	58.8% / 48.4%	2.9% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 7.8	54.5% / 56.4%	18.2% / 12.8%	5.5 / 4.2	56 / 70	65.9% / 57.7%	57.1% / 52.9%	26.8% / 38.4%	6.1 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.3% / 55.7%	21.9 / 28.8
8	@NYJ	25 – 20 W	-1.1	50.0% / 51.4%	3.3% / 8.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 6.7	37.5% / 22.7%	28.1% / 36.4%	4.4 / 2.0	62 / 57	45.8% / 41.5%	43.5% / 40.4%	53.1% / 40.1%	6.2 / 4.9	3.2% / 1.8%	51.6% / 38.6%	26.1 / 36.9
9	@CAR	17 – 20 L	-0.4	47.5% / 40.0%	5.0% / 4.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	7.6 / 5.2	36.8% / 50.0%	26.3% / 21.1%	2.8 / 5.3	59 / 63	52.4% / 50.0%	44.1% / 46.0%	39.6% / 43.3%	6.0 / 5.2	0.0% / 3.2%	32.2% / 60.3%	20.5 / 35.8

Dallas Cowboys @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 12

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis