Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (43) – Dallas at ARIZONA

Lean Dallas (-13)

· Arizona’s defense surrendered 7.8 yppp without Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker last week and there really isn’t anyone else on the backend for the Cardinals clearly above replacement level. Baker is on injured reserve after he suffered a hamstring injury during practice. Dak Prescott has a 0.38 EPA/play (2nd) and I don’t see him slowing down on Sunday.

· Arizona’s defense has an 82% zone rate (10th) and Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb had 10 receptions for a career-high 130 yards versus zone last week. Lamb is the league’s only receiver to account for over half his team’s yards, but the Cowboys can be more unpredictable this week with WR Brandin Cooks back on the field.

· Cooks will have a favorable matchup on the outside against Cardinals’ cornerback Marco Wilson, who ranks 6th-worst in PFF coverage grade.

· Dallas has already trotted out eight offensive linemen this year but really hasn’t missed a beat despite being in flux. The Cowboys’ offensive line ranks 4th in pass-blocking efficiency and has not conceded a sack.

· Joshua Dobbs leads the league by far targeting tight ends on nearly 40% of passes, but Dallas allowed only 5.6 yards per target to TEs in 2022 (3rd) and the Cowboys get a key player in the secondary back this week. Donovan Wilson will make his debut in this game after he conceded just 4.9 yards per target last season splitting his time between being a box defender and free safety.

· Dallas cornerback Trevon Diggs is out for the season. Diggs ranks 3rd in PFF coverage grade and is worth 0.7 points according to our metrics.

· Micah Parsons leads the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency, but he will be tested this week across from Arizona left tackle DJ Humphries, who has allowed only one pressure all year.

· Our model favors the Cowboys by 15.0 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, and the Over is a Strong Opinion at 43.5 or less.