Game Analysis
Cleveland is the strongest technical play of the week, as the Browns apply to a 21-1 ATS subset of a 70-21 ATS situation that plays on bad teams that are coming off a spread covering close loss. In other words, last week’s near miss against Miami (an overtime loss) is a good indication of success this week for the winless Browns.
Washington, meanwhile, applies to a negative 21-64 ATS situation that plays against home favorites after that are playing poorly on defense (the Skins have allowed an average of 31 points) and game 4 favorites coming off their first win of the season after starting with two losses are just 6-29-1 ATS.
Cleveland is the right side based on the technical analysis and the advanced NFL model favors the Browns as well. However, due to the poor fundamentals of the team (38.4% success rate), we temper our enthusiasm. We will make the Browns a Strong Opinion at +7.5, in addition the model leans UNDER (47).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.7
41.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.4%
48.0%
-
Sack Rate
9.4%
2.6%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.5%
20.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
56.2%
41.1%
-
NYPP
6.2
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.7
28.3
-
RB YPR
5.8
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
32.1%
14.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.6%
45.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
69.0%
28.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.7
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
61.3
69.3
-
Early Down Succ
40.4%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
38.8%
47.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
61.3%
38.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
28.6
-
Run Ratio
41.7%
40.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.4
31.4
-
Game Control
-1.1
1.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.3
37.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.6%
55.3%
-
Sack Rate
3.2%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
13.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.5%
50.6%
-
NYPP
7.9
8.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.3
27.7
-
RB YPR
3.8
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
19.4%
19.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
54.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
29.1%
39.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
62.7
65.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.9%
55.9%
-
Succ Rate
48.7%
55.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.5%
46.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.5
6.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
28.6
-
Run Ratio
31.6%
42.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.3
27.8
-
Game Control
-3.9
3.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@PHI |
10 – 29 L |
-7.9 |
27.6% / 43.6% |
10.3% / 5.1% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 6.9 |
38.1% / 50.0% |
28.6% / 11.8% |
5.7 / 3.9 |
50 / 73 |
36.8% / 49.1% |
32.0% / 46.6% |
71.9% / 30.0% |
5.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.0% / 46.6% |
20.8 / 38.2 |
2 |
BAL |
20 – 25 L |
7.1 |
47.2% / 46.7% |
8.3% / 0.0% |
6.1% / 4.4% |
6.7 / 6.7 |
26.1% / 30.8% |
43.5% / 19.2% |
6.3 / 3.1 |
59 / 71 |
32.6% / 35.2% |
39.0% / 40.8% |
53.2% / 37.2% |
6.6 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.0% / 36.6% |
25.7 / 27.5 |
3 |
@MIA |
24 – 30 L |
-2.6 |
40.5% / 53.8% |
9.5% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
6.2 / 8.0 |
51.5% / 56.0% |
24.2% / 12.0% |
5.2 / 4.6 |
75 / 64 |
51.7% / 61.1% |
45.3% / 54.7% |
58.7% / 47.2% |
5.7 / 6.7 |
1.3% / 1.6% |
44.0% / 39.1% |
26.8 / 28.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PIT |
16 – 38 L |
-6.2 |
48.8% / 60.5% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
4.7% / 2.7% |
7.7 / 7.6 |
58.3% / 65.6% |
25.0% / 12.5% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
55 / 70 |
58.1% / 64.7% |
50.9% / 62.9% |
25.0% / 59.2% |
7.0 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
21.8% / 45.7% |
30.1 / 27.3 |
2 |
DAL |
23 – 27 L |
-1.7 |
51.1% / 52.9% |
4.3% / 11.8% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 8.2 |
58.8% / 50.0% |
17.6% / 26.7% |
4.8 / 3.4 |
64 / 64 |
56.9% / 51.0% |
53.1% / 51.6% |
49.5% / 33.4% |
6.8 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
26.6% / 46.9% |
31.0 / 27.7 |
3 |
@NYG |
29 – 27 W |
-3.7 |
45.9% / 52.5% |
5.4% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
8.5 / 8.4 |
37.5% / 47.6% |
15.6% / 19.0% |
2.9 / 5.7 |
69 / 61 |
43.8% / 51.9% |
42.0% / 50.8% |
56.0% / 47.3% |
5.9 / 7.5 |
1.4% / 1.6% |
46.4% / 34.4% |
35.9 / 28.5 |