Cleveland Browns @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Oct 2
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 253
Odds: Washington Redskins -7.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Cleveland is the strongest technical play of the week, as the Browns apply to a 21-1 ATS subset of a 70-21 ATS situation that plays on bad teams that are coming off a spread covering close loss. In other words, last week’s near miss against Miami (an overtime loss) is a good indication of success this week for the winless Browns.

Washington, meanwhile, applies to a negative 21-64 ATS situation that plays against home favorites after that are playing poorly on defense (the Skins have allowed an average of 31 points) and game 4 favorites coming off their first win of the season after starting with two losses are  just 6-29-1 ATS.

Cleveland is the right side based on the technical analysis and the advanced NFL model favors the Browns as well. However, due to the poor fundamentals of the team (38.4% success rate), we temper our enthusiasm.  We will make the Browns a Strong Opinion at +7.5, in addition the model leans UNDER (47).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Redskins
CLE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.7 41.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 38.4% 48.0%
  • Sack Rate 9.4% 2.6%
  • Int Rate 3.3% 3.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.5% 20.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 56.2% 41.1%
  • NYPP 6.2 7.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.7 28.3
  • RB YPR 5.8 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 32.1% 14.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.6% 45.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 69.0% 28.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.7 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 61.3 69.3
  • Early Down Succ 40.4% 48.5%
  • Succ Rate 38.8% 47.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 61.3% 38.1%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 28.6
  • Run Ratio 41.7% 40.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 24.4 31.4
  • Game Control -1.1 1.1
 
  • Points 18.0 28.0
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