Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Cleveland is the strongest technical play of the week, as the Browns apply to a 21-1 ATS subset of a 70-21 ATS situation that plays on bad teams that are coming off a spread covering close loss. In other words, last week’s near miss against Miami (an overtime loss) is a good indication of success this week for the winless Browns.

Washington, meanwhile, applies to a negative 21-64 ATS situation that plays against home favorites after that are playing poorly on defense (the Skins have allowed an average of 31 points) and game 4 favorites coming off their first win of the season after starting with two losses are just 6-29-1 ATS.

Cleveland is the right side based on the technical analysis and the advanced NFL model favors the Browns as well. However, due to the poor fundamentals of the team (38.4% success rate), we temper our enthusiasm. We will make the Browns a Strong Opinion at +7.5, in addition the model leans UNDER (47).

Team Stats
Game Log

Browns
Redskins

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.7 41.0
Succ Pass Plays 38.4% 48.0%
Sack Rate 9.4% 2.6%
Int Rate 3.3% 3.2%
Deep Pass Rate 25.5% 20.3%
Big Pass Yards 56.2% 41.1%
NYPP 6.2 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 25.7 28.3
RB YPR 5.8 4.0
Stuff Rate 32.1% 14.3%
Succ Rush Plays 38.6% 45.6%
Big Rush Yards 69.0% 28.1%
Yards Per Rush 5.7 3.9

Game

All Snaps 61.3 69.3
Early Down Succ 40.4% 48.5%
Succ Rate 38.8% 47.4%
Big Yards Rate 61.3% 38.1%
Yards Per Play 6.0 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 28.6
Run Ratio 41.7% 40.8%
Starting Field Pos 24.4 31.4
Game Control -1.1 1.1

Points 18.0 28.0

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@PHI	10 – 29 L	-7.9	27.6% / 43.6%	10.3% / 5.1%	3.8% / 0.0%	5.8 / 6.9	38.1% / 50.0%	28.6% / 11.8%	5.7 / 3.9	50 / 73	36.8% / 49.1%	32.0% / 46.6%	71.9% / 30.0%	5.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	42.0% / 46.6%	20.8 / 38.2
2	BAL	20 – 25 L	7.1	47.2% / 46.7%	8.3% / 0.0%	6.1% / 4.4%	6.7 / 6.7	26.1% / 30.8%	43.5% / 19.2%	6.3 / 3.1	59 / 71	32.6% / 35.2%	39.0% / 40.8%	53.2% / 37.2%	6.6 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	39.0% / 36.6%	25.7 / 27.5
3	@MIA	24 – 30 L	-2.6	40.5% / 53.8%	9.5% / 2.6%	0.0% / 5.3%	6.2 / 8.0	51.5% / 56.0%	24.2% / 12.0%	5.2 / 4.6	75 / 64	51.7% / 61.1%	45.3% / 54.7%	58.7% / 47.2%	5.7 / 6.7	1.3% / 1.6%	44.0% / 39.1%	26.8 / 28.7

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	16 – 38 L	-6.2	48.8% / 60.5%	0.0% / 2.6%	4.7% / 2.7%	7.7 / 7.6	58.3% / 65.6%	25.0% / 12.5%	4.6 / 4.6	55 / 70	58.1% / 64.7%	50.9% / 62.9%	25.0% / 59.2%	7.0 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	21.8% / 45.7%	30.1 / 27.3
2	DAL	23 – 27 L	-1.7	51.1% / 52.9%	4.3% / 11.8%	2.2% / 0.0%	7.4 / 8.2	58.8% / 50.0%	17.6% / 26.7%	4.8 / 3.4	64 / 64	56.9% / 51.0%	53.1% / 51.6%	49.5% / 33.4%	6.8 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.6%	26.6% / 46.9%	31.0 / 27.7
3	@NYG	29 – 27 W	-3.7	45.9% / 52.5%	5.4% / 5.0%	0.0% / 5.3%	8.5 / 8.4	37.5% / 47.6%	15.6% / 19.0%	2.9 / 5.7	69 / 61	43.8% / 51.9%	42.0% / 50.8%	56.0% / 47.3%	5.9 / 7.5	1.4% / 1.6%	46.4% / 34.4%	35.9 / 28.5

Cleveland Browns @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Oct 2

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis