Game Analysis
Lean – Cleveland (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY
Lean – Under (52.5)
Baker Mayfield tripped on the first-down marker running out-of-bounds early in last week’s game against the Chargers and it seemed to affect his mobility the rest of the afternoon. Mayfield didn’t scramble again after the injury and his limited pocket mobility contributed to his taking 4 sacks. The Browns receivers certainly didn’t help their hobbled quarterback with 4 more drops last week. Mayfield has now had 8.5% of his passes dropped this season, which is more than double the league average. The rookie quarterback will look to turn it around against a Buccaneers defense rated last in our metrics, which has led to the firing of their defensive coordinator. Cleveland targets tight ends on 24% of passes (5th-most) and they should expose the middle of a Bucs’ defense that is without strong safety Chris Conte and allowing 10.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends, the most in the league.
The Browns defense lost linebacker Mychal Kendricks to insider trading earlier in the year and now it looks like they may be without Joe Schobert on Sunday. Schobert is surrendering just 0.24 yards per cover snap, 1st among qualifying linebackers, but the Buccaneers target their running backs on a league-low 13% of passes so it is likely they won’t take advantage of his absence.
Our model favors the Bucs by 3.8 points but Cleveland applies to a 133-50-5 ATS situation that plays on teams coming off a loss of 21 points or more while Tampa Bay applies to a 40-96-1 ATS home favorite situation that plays against struggling defensive teams, as well as a 17-57-1 ATS situation that plays against teams coming home after 2 road losses. In this case the situations are stronger than the line value and I’ll lean with Cleveland at +3 points or more. The total has shut up a few points and I’ll now lean under 51 points or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.5
38.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.9%
53.2%
-
Sack Rate
11.0%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
4.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.9%
19.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
49.2%
36.8%
-
NYPP
6.0
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.2
30.5
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
28.6%
28.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.4%
46.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.1%
53.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
70.7
68.7
-
Early Down Succ
41.0%
52.3%
-
Succ Rate
40.9%
51.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.0%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.4
29.5
-
Run Ratio
42.9%
45.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
29.8
-
Game Control
-3.4
3.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.0
41.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.3%
58.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
4.3%
-
Int Rate
4.4%
0.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.2%
20.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.2%
45.4%
-
NYPP
9.8
9.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.2
23.4
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
27.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.8%
50.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.2%
51.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.2
64.6
-
Early Down Succ
51.7%
58.7%
-
Succ Rate
49.4%
54.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.4%
46.3%
-
Yards Per Play
7.1
6.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.9
28.5
-
Run Ratio
36.8%
36.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.2
25.8
-
Game Control
-5.0
5.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PIT |
21 – 21 T |
-6.0 |
21.7% / 40.0% |
15.2% / 8.9% |
2.6% / 7.3% |
3.3 / 7.0 |
39.5% / 44.4% |
34.2% / 19.4% |
4.7 / 4.4 |
84 / 81 |
30.8% / 42.2% |
29.8% / 42.0% |
64.5% / 48.4% |
3.9 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 3.7% |
45.2% / 44.4% |
34.4 / 23.9 |
2 |
@NO |
18 – 21 L |
2.8 |
48.5% / 63.2% |
9.1% / 7.9% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
7.1 / 5.6 |
33.3% / 37.5% |
14.8% / 25.0% |
3.4 / 2.6 |
60 / 62 |
43.5% / 60.4% |
41.7% / 53.2% |
43.4% / 30.8% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
45.0% / 38.7% |
28.4 / 35.0 |
3 |
NYJ |
21 – 17 W |
-5.4 |
36.6% / 36.4% |
9.8% / 6.1% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
4.6 / 4.9 |
42.9% / 50.0% |
31.4% / 43.3% |
3.9 / 3.6 |
76 / 63 |
42.6% / 42.6% |
39.5% / 42.9% |
32.3% / 22.4% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
46.1% / 47.6% |
33.3 / 23.2 |
4 |
@OAK |
42 – 45 L |
2.1 |
37.2% / 53.3% |
4.7% / 5.0% |
4.9% / 3.5% |
6.5 / 7.1 |
43.8% / 33.3% |
21.9% / 36.7% |
6.5 / 4.7 |
75 / 90 |
42.1% / 52.1% |
40.0% / 46.7% |
57.8% / 44.2% |
6.5 / 6.3 |
2.7% / 0.0% |
42.7% / 33.3% |
26.1 / 34.9 |
5 |
BAL |
12 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.1% / 80.6% |
17.2% / 6.5% |
4.2% / 3.4% |
10.5 / 9.5 |
46.4% / 48.0% |
35.7% / 32.0% |
4.0 / 4.6 |
57 / 56 |
45.5% / 47.8% |
54.4% / 66.1% |
57.7% / 35.1% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
49.1% / 44.6% |
19.7 / 31.4 |
6 |
LAC |
14 – 38 L |
-14.7 |
39.2% / 45.5% |
9.8% / 4.5% |
4.3% / 4.8% |
4.2 / 9.2 |
42.9% / 63.2% |
33.3% / 13.2% |
4.9 / 6.5 |
72 / 60 |
41.5% / 68.8% |
40.3% / 56.7% |
50.2% / 69.2% |
4.4 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
29.2% / 63.3% |
34.2 / 30.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NO |
48 – 40 W |
7.4 |
64.3% / 73.9% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
14.9 / 9.4 |
43.2% / 69.2% |
18.9% / 23.1% |
3.1 / 3.3 |
65 / 59 |
56.5% / 77.6% |
52.3% / 72.9% |
62.7% / 36.4% |
8.2 / 8.1 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
56.9% / 22.0% |
26.4 / 25.9 |
2 |
PHI |
27 – 21 W |
11.1 |
60.0% / 42.0% |
5.7% / 6.0% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
11.2 / 6.4 |
25.0% / 54.2% |
41.7% / 20.8% |
1.8 / 3.8 |
59 / 74 |
48.9% / 48.1% |
45.8% / 45.9% |
45.3% / 36.2% |
7.4 / 5.6 |
1.7% / 2.7% |
40.7% / 32.4% |
27.2 / 25.5 |
3 |
PIT |
27 – 30 L |
-9.7 |
45.3% / 51.2% |
5.7% / 7.3% |
6.0% / 2.6% |
7.4 / 8.2 |
47.1% / 36.0% |
17.6% / 28.0% |
3.8 / 3.2 |
70 / 66 |
48.3% / 54.0% |
45.7% / 45.5% |
43.6% / 45.4% |
6.5 / 6.3 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
24.3% / 37.9% |
25.2 / 28.0 |
4 |
@CHI |
10 – 48 L |
-27.7 |
45.2% / 66.7% |
9.5% / 3.7% |
7.9% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 12.7 |
38.9% / 51.5% |
22.2% / 27.3% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
60 / 60 |
45.7% / 64.6% |
43.3% / 58.3% |
32.8% / 72.6% |
5.2 / 8.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.0% / 55.0% |
23.8 / 27.5 |
6 |
@ATL |
29 – 34 L |
-6.3 |
61.9% / 57.1% |
4.8% / 2.4% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 8.2 |
55.0% / 40.9% |
25.0% / 36.4% |
6.2 / 3.2 |
62 / 64 |
59.3% / 49.0% |
59.7% / 51.6% |
32.8% / 40.9% |
8.3 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.3% / 34.4% |
28.6 / 21.9 |