Cleveland Browns @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Oct 21
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 455
Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5, Total: 52.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Cleveland (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY

Lean – Under (52.5)

Baker Mayfield tripped on the first-down marker running out-of-bounds early in last week’s game against the Chargers and it seemed to affect his mobility the rest of the afternoon. Mayfield didn’t scramble again after the injury and his limited pocket mobility contributed to his taking 4 sacks. The Browns receivers certainly didn’t help their hobbled quarterback with 4 more drops last week. Mayfield has now had 8.5% of his passes dropped this season, which is more than double the league average. The rookie quarterback will look to turn it around against a Buccaneers defense rated last in our metrics, which has led to the firing of their defensive coordinator. Cleveland targets tight ends on 24% of passes (5th-most) and they should expose the middle of a Bucs’ defense that is without strong safety Chris Conte and allowing 10.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends, the most in the league.

The Browns defense lost linebacker Mychal Kendricks to insider trading earlier in the year and now it looks like they may be without Joe Schobert on Sunday. Schobert is surrendering just 0.24 yards per cover snap, 1st among qualifying linebackers, but the Buccaneers target their running backs on a league-low 13% of passes so it is likely they won’t take advantage of his absence.

Our model favors the Bucs by 3.8 points but Cleveland applies to a 133-50-5 ATS situation that plays on teams coming off a loss of 21 points or more while Tampa Bay applies to a 40-96-1 ATS home favorite situation that plays against struggling defensive teams, as well as a 17-57-1 ATS situation that plays against teams coming home after 2 road losses. In this case the situations are stronger than the line value and I’ll lean with Cleveland at +3 points or more. The total has shut up a few points and I’ll now lean under 51 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Buccaneers
CLE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.5 38.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 40.9% 53.2%
  • Sack Rate 11.0% 6.5%
  • Int Rate 3.2% 4.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 23.9% 19.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 49.2% 36.8%
  • NYPP 6.0 7.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.2 30.5
  • RB YPR 4.2 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 28.6% 28.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.4% 46.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 54.1% 53.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 70.7 68.7
  • Early Down Succ 41.0% 52.3%
  • Succ Rate 40.9% 51.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 51.0% 41.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.4 29.5
  • Run Ratio 42.9% 45.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.4 29.8
  • Game Control -3.4 3.4
 
  • Points 21.3 25.2
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