Game Analysis

Lean – SEATTLE (-3.5) vs Cleveland

· Deshaun Watson threw 2 interceptions last week before being checked for a concussion and ultimately being cleared. However, Watson remained on the sideline for the rest of the game. It looks like Watson will be out this week.

· Browns backup quarterback PJ Walker is averaging just 4.8 yppp in two games and he has 16 targets to WR Amari Cooper. Seahawks rookie CB Devon Witherspoon is conceding a league-low 0.59 yards per cover snap, and he will contain Cooper when lined up across from him.

· Seattle interior defender Jarran Reed ranks 10th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be limited on Sunday. Cleveland LG Joel Bitonio is one of 16 qualifying guards to not have conceded a sack and C Ethan Pocic has allowed just one pressure over the past two weeks.

· DK Metcalf has a 14.7-yard average depth of target (11th-highest) and he should suit up on Sunday. Geno Smith will be forced into throwing contested passes to Metcalf as a league-high 46% of targets versus Cleveland’s defense have 10+ air yards to the sideline.

· However, the Browns rank 2nd in explosive pass rate allowed and they could get some interceptions on the deep passes to Metcalf. Smith has a 4.2% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (6th-highest).

· Seahawks C Evan Brown will likely be back after missing last week and he ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency. However, Smith will be worried about Seattle’s tackles against All-Pro edge defender Myles Garrett, who forced a fumble on both of his sacks last game and blocked a field goal against the Colts.

· Our model favors the Seahawks by 5.9 points with Watson out, with a predicted total of 42.5 points.