Game Analysis

NEW ORLEANS (pick) vs Cleveland

• Browns RB Nick Chubb is averaging 2.7 yards per rush but he should get closer to his career 5.2 yards per carry this week. I expect Cleveland’s offense to feature Chubb as New Orleans is surrendering 0.04 EPA/rush (31st).
• Saints edge defender Chase Young has 37 pressures (12th) and he has a favorable matchup across from LT Dawand Jones, who has surrendered 4 sacks (9th-most).
• New Orleans LT Taliese Fuaga has surrendered 5 sacks (5th-most) and he will struggle versus edge defender Myles Garrett, who ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Derek Carr dialed up the deep ball to new Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week. Carr completed 2-of-3 attempts with 20+ air yards against the Falcons but he likely won’t have time on Sunday with Garrett hounding him on a consistent basis.
• Carr will instead need to get the ball out quickly. New Orleans is targeting running backs on a league-high 30% of passes and RB Alvin Kamara leads the NFL with 180 yards from screens. The Browns are surrendering a 50% receiving success rate to opposing RBs (26th).
• Our model favors the Saints by 1.2 points, with a predicted total of 45.3 points.  I used Cleveland in my pool based on the matchups.