Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Cleveland (+3.5) over LA RAMS

· Matthew Stafford is averaging 8.0 yppp when kept clean (9th) but his offensive line was overwhelmed in two games versus elite pass rushes this season. Stafford averaged only 5.7 yppp against Dallas and San Francisco.

· Browns edge defender Myles Garrett suffered a shoulder injury in the last game, but he will suit up on Sunday and the All-Pro ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency. Cleveland’s defense has a 43.9% pressure rate (2nd) and Stafford will not be kept clean in this game.

· Sean McVay’s offense is much worse against man coverage with a yards per attempt only 71% of their yards per attempt versus zone (28th) and Stafford will struggle as the Browns have a 39.8% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest).

· Joe Flacco will start this game for Cleveland, and I do not expect him to be worse than Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Phillip Walker, who respectively are averaging -0.21 EPA/play and -0.22 EPA/play. Zach Wilson and Tommy DeVito are the only quarterbacks worse than Thompson-Robinson and Walker this year.

· Rams’ interior defender Aaron Donald ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency but Falcco should have clean pockets as only 38% of Cleveland’s pressures this season have been conceded by the interior offensive line (4th-lowest rate).

· Our model favors the Rams by 2.9 points, with a predicted total of 40.7 points, and the matchups favor the Browns.

Cleveland is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 -120 or better.