Cleveland Browns @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Nov 29
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 257
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – CLEVELAND (-6.5) over Jacksonville

Cleveland’s offense could be playing their fourth consecutive rain game, which plays to their strengths as we’ve seen against the Raiders, Texans, and Eagles. The Browns run the ball at the highest rate in the NFL and I would expect to see plenty of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt this week. However, Jacksonville’s pass defense is by far the worst in the NFL so Baker Mayfield will be hoping the rain holds off. The Jaguars will be without their best cornerback DJ Hayden, top pass rusher Josh Allen, starting safety Daniel Thomas, and likely two other starting cornerbacks in CJ Henderson (groin) and Sidney Jones (Achilles). Jacksonville’s backup CBs combined to surrender 1.72 yards per cover snap against the Steelers last week.

Cleveland’s defense will be without its best two players on Sunday in DE Myles Garrett and CB Denzel Ward. Garrett leads the league with 9.5 sacks and Ward is coming off one of his best games as a pro, allowing just 2.7 yards per target with an interception. Garrett and Ward are worth nearly two points combined, but the Browns still should be able to get stops against this terrible Jaguars offense. Mike Glennon will take over for Jake Luton at quarterback, which our metrics indicate is a half point upgrade, but Glennon is still a point and a half worse than Gardner Minshew. Glennon will make his first start without Jacksonville’s best offensive lineman LG Andrew Norwell, who ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency.

Our model favors the Browns by 10.4 points, with a predicted total of 49.7 points but I’ll resist making Cleveland a Best Bet since the situation favors Jacksonville (a 92-42-1 ATS dog off 5 or more losses angle applies). Cleveland is a Strong Opinion at -7 or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Jaguars


  • Pass Plays 29.3 40.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.6% 47.9%
  • Sack Rate 5.1% 6.9%
  • Int Rate 2.3% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.6% 16.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 32.6% 31.8%
  • NYPP 6.6 6.1


  • Rush Plays 31.9 26.2
  • RB YPR 4.8 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 22.5% 18.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.7% 54.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 55.4% 30.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.0


  • All Snaps 61.2 66.4
  • Early Down Succ 49.9% 52.2%
  • Succ Rate 46.8% 51.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.8% 32.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.6 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 27.6
  • Run Ratio 51.9% 40.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.3 29.8
  • Game Control -0.3 0.3
  • Points 23.8 26.1
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