Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – CLEVELAND (-6.5) over Jacksonville
Cleveland’s offense could be playing their fourth consecutive rain game, which plays to their strengths as we’ve seen against the Raiders, Texans, and Eagles. The Browns run the ball at the highest rate in the NFL and I would expect to see plenty of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt this week. However, Jacksonville’s pass defense is by far the worst in the NFL so Baker Mayfield will be hoping the rain holds off. The Jaguars will be without their best cornerback DJ Hayden, top pass rusher Josh Allen, starting safety Daniel Thomas, and likely two other starting cornerbacks in CJ Henderson (groin) and Sidney Jones (Achilles). Jacksonville’s backup CBs combined to surrender 1.72 yards per cover snap against the Steelers last week.
Cleveland’s defense will be without its best two players on Sunday in DE Myles Garrett and CB Denzel Ward. Garrett leads the league with 9.5 sacks and Ward is coming off one of his best games as a pro, allowing just 2.7 yards per target with an interception. Garrett and Ward are worth nearly two points combined, but the Browns still should be able to get stops against this terrible Jaguars offense. Mike Glennon will take over for Jake Luton at quarterback, which our metrics indicate is a half point upgrade, but Glennon is still a point and a half worse than Gardner Minshew. Glennon will make his first start without Jacksonville’s best offensive lineman LG Andrew Norwell, who ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency.
Our model favors the Browns by 10.4 points, with a predicted total of 49.7 points but I’ll resist making Cleveland a Best Bet since the situation favors Jacksonville (a 92-42-1 ATS dog off 5 or more losses angle applies). Cleveland is a Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.3
40.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.6%
16.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.6%
31.8%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.9
26.2
-
RB YPR
4.8
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
22.5%
18.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.7%
54.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
55.4%
30.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.2
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
49.9%
52.2%
-
Succ Rate
46.8%
51.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.8%
32.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
27.6
-
Run Ratio
51.9%
40.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
29.8
-
Game Control
-0.3
0.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.7
35.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.3%
53.1%
-
Sack Rate
8.0%
2.7%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.8%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.1%
39.8%
-
NYPP
5.6
8.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.7
29.9
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
15.3%
21.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.7%
46.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.5%
48.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
62.4
65.6
-
Early Down Succ
49.9%
53.4%
-
Succ Rate
47.6%
50.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.9
29.6
-
Run Ratio
35.2%
46.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.4
31.0
-
Game Control
-6.4
6.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
6 – 38 L |
-16.2 |
36.6% /
57.1% |
4.9% /
7.1% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.6 |
48.1% /
40.0% |
18.5% /
26.7% |
5.1 /
3.6 |
68 /
58 |
48.1% /
47.8% |
41.2% /
48.3% |
49.3% /
50.4% |
4.5 /
6.5 |
2.9% /
1.7% |
39.7% /
51.7% |
21.3 /
43.8 |
| 2 |
CIN |
35 – 30 W |
7.1 |
47.8% /
48.4% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
4.5 |
60.0% /
62.5% |
11.4% /
25.0% |
6.1 /
2.8 |
58 /
88 |
56.5% /
51.6% |
55.2% /
52.3% |
54.6% /
6.5% |
7.5 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.1% |
60.3% /
27.3% |
38.3 /
25.3 |
| 3 |
WAS |
34 – 20 W |
2.4 |
56.0% /
40.0% |
8.0% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
8.1% |
5.7 /
5.2 |
43.2% /
50.0% |
27.0% /
13.6% |
4.3 /
4.7 |
62 /
62 |
51.1% /
42.0% |
48.4% /
43.5% |
27.7% /
37.2% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
59.7% /
35.5% |
40.0 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
49 – 38 W |
12.0 |
48.5% /
60.7% |
6.1% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
1.7% |
6.1 /
7.9 |
72.5% /
55.6% |
10.0% /
16.7% |
7.7 /
4.7 |
73 /
79 |
67.8% /
60.6% |
61.6% /
59.5% |
46.9% /
26.3% |
7.0 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
2.5% |
54.8% /
22.8% |
31.8 /
22.8 |
| 5 |
IND |
32 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% /
47.1% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
5.3% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
7.1 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
21.2% /
11.1% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
72 /
52 |
40.7% /
51.3% |
45.8% /
48.1% |
36.9% /
26.0% |
5.3 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.8% /
34.6% |
28.6 /
25.0 |
| 6 |
@PIT |
7 – 38 L |
-17.7 |
37.5% /
36.0% |
12.5% /
8.0% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
36.4% /
54.1% |
31.8% /
10.8% |
3.4 /
3.5 |
54 /
62 |
48.7% /
51.2% |
37.0% /
46.8% |
40.5% /
55.2% |
4.1 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
59.7% |
25.6 /
37.8 |
| 7 |
@CIN |
37 – 34 W |
-2.4 |
72.4% /
63.5% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
3.4% /
2.1% |
10.9 /
7.4 |
36.4% /
57.1% |
22.7% /
14.3% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
51 /
73 |
57.1% /
60.3% |
56.9% /
61.6% |
57.3% /
32.5% |
7.8 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
43.1% /
28.8% |
26.9 /
31.7 |
| 8 |
LV |
6 – 16 L |
-2.0 |
36.0% /
42.3% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
3.9 |
54.5% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
47 /
71 |
45.7% /
60.4% |
44.7% /
59.2% |
34.5% /
22.7% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
63.4% |
26.5 /
27.1 |
| 10 |
HOU |
10 – 7 W |
3.8 |
42.9% /
43.8% |
4.8% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.8 |
48.8% /
45.5% |
17.1% /
27.3% |
5.6 /
4.1 |
62 /
54 |
48.9% /
43.6% |
46.8% /
44.4% |
44.7% /
26.7% |
5.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
66.1% /
40.7% |
16.8 /
28.4 |
| 11 |
PHI |
22 – 17 W |
4.5 |
40.0% /
40.0% |
12.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
7.5 /
5.2 |
25.0% /
60.0% |
37.5% /
28.0% |
3.4 /
4.2 |
65 /
65 |
34.0% /
52.9% |
30.8% /
47.7% |
55.9% /
36.8% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
1.5% /
1.5% |
61.5% /
38.5% |
27.1 /
29.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
IND |
27 – 20 W |
-2.5 |
62.5% /
55.3% |
16.7% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
6.3 /
7.6 |
39.1% /
36.4% |
17.4% /
27.3% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
47 /
69 |
52.8% /
53.7% |
51.1% /
49.3% |
34.9% /
30.1% |
5.1 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.9% /
31.9% |
31.0 /
27.0 |
| 2 |
@TEN |
30 – 33 L |
-8.0 |
59.6% /
60.0% |
4.3% /
4.0% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
9.2 |
59.3% /
52.9% |
7.4% /
14.7% |
6.1 /
3.6 |
74 /
59 |
55.9% /
56.5% |
59.5% /
55.9% |
38.5% /
28.8% |
6.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
57.6% |
18.6 /
35.3 |
| 3 |
MIA |
13 – 31 L |
-12.9 |
54.3% /
66.7% |
8.7% /
4.8% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
7.4 |
52.9% /
47.2% |
5.9% /
27.8% |
4.2 /
3.8 |
63 /
57 |
62.0% /
54.8% |
54.0% /
54.4% |
19.2% /
31.0% |
5.0 /
5.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
27.0% /
63.2% |
23.5 /
35.8 |
| 4 |
@CIN |
25 – 33 L |
-3.7 |
60.5% /
54.1% |
7.0% /
2.7% |
2.5% /
2.8% |
7.9 /
8.1 |
55.0% /
61.8% |
15.0% /
17.6% |
4.5 /
6.0 |
63 /
71 |
65.4% /
63.2% |
58.7% /
57.7% |
46.6% /
48.1% |
6.8 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
47.9% |
24.0 /
33.0 |
| 5 |
@HOU |
14 – 30 L |
-4.9 |
39.6% /
61.1% |
7.5% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
5.5 /
9.9 |
55.0% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
18.2% |
3.8 /
5.9 |
73 /
58 |
42.6% /
57.4% |
43.8% /
56.9% |
30.8% /
54.7% |
5.0 /
8.4 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
27.4% /
37.9% |
34.0 /
23.4 |
| 6 |
DET |
16 – 34 L |
-13.1 |
35.6% /
41.9% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
5.1 /
7.2 |
43.8% /
46.2% |
25.0% /
20.5% |
2.8 /
4.6 |
61 /
70 |
35.6% /
48.1% |
37.7% /
44.3% |
40.0% /
43.2% |
4.5 /
5.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
26.2% /
55.7% |
29.2 /
37.3 |
| 7 |
@LAC |
29 – 39 L |
-4.5 |
28.1% /
51.1% |
15.6% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
7.8 |
59.3% /
46.9% |
18.5% /
18.8% |
5.2 /
4.2 |
59 /
77 |
45.0% /
53.3% |
42.4% /
49.4% |
61.6% /
49.4% |
5.0 /
6.3 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
45.8% /
41.6% |
28.8 /
32.7 |
| 9 |
HOU |
25 – 27 L |
-4.8 |
55.0% /
44.1% |
5.0% /
5.9% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
7.9 |
48.1% /
46.4% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
67 /
62 |
56.9% /
48.9% |
52.2% /
45.2% |
45.4% /
50.5% |
6.1 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
40.3% /
45.2% |
27.1 /
26.3 |
| 10 |
@GB |
20 – 24 L |
-0.5 |
39.5% /
51.4% |
7.9% /
2.9% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
4.0 /
9.0 |
47.8% /
44.0% |
8.7% /
24.0% |
4.7 /
3.2 |
61 /
60 |
46.8% /
54.5% |
42.6% /
48.3% |
23.8% /
49.6% |
4.3 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
37.7% /
41.7% |
34.1 /
24.7 |
| 11 |
PIT |
3 – 27 L |
-8.9 |
28.2% /
45.7% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
10.8% /
2.2% |
3.4 /
5.8 |
47.1% /
37.0% |
11.8% /
18.5% |
4.3 /
3.9 |
56 /
73 |
35.7% /
43.4% |
33.9% /
42.5% |
19.4% /
50.1% |
3.7 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.4% /
37.0% |
23.4 /
34.5 |
Cleveland Browns
@ 
Jacksonville Jaguars