Game Analysis
Lean – HOUSTON (-6.5) over Cleveland
Lean – Over (47)
Two of the hottest teams in the NFL clash here with the Texans winners of 8-straight and the Browns winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2014. Cleveland’s offense is gaining 6.5 yards per play under Freddie Kitchens compared to just 4.9 yards per play with Todd Haley and Hue Jackson. Nick Chubb is seeing a heavy workload with his running backs coach calling the plays, as Chubb has averaged 25.7 opportunities (attempts + targets) and 142.3 scrimmage yards per game under the new regime. Baker Mayfield has 9 touchdowns to just 1 interception, and his 0.35 expected points added per play ranks 5th among all quarterbacks since the change in play-caller as he’s getting the ball out quicker with an average time to throw of 2.51 seconds compared to 2.72 seconds prior to week 9. However, the uptick in production is not all due to the switch at offensive coordinator as the Browns faced Kansas City, Atlanta, and Cincinnati the last 3 games, defenses rated 1.8 points below average by our numbers, and Mayfield’s receivers are dropping only 4.4% of his catchable passes compared to 11.8% in his first 6 games. Overall, we’re upgrading Cleveland’s offense by 2 points with Kitchens at offensive coordinator.
The Browns top two defenders have the potential to make a significant impact against Houston’s offense. Myles Garrett, one of just 9 players with double-digit sacks thus far, will line up across from Julie’n Davenport, who ranks last among 59 qualifying tackles in pass block efficiency, and standout rookie cornerback Denzel Ward, surrendering just 0.88 yards per cover snap (17th), should battle with DeAndre Hopkins. Ward has held Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Mike Evans to 8 yards per target this season, which is nearly 2 yards per target below their combined season average.
Despite the upgrade to Cleveland’s offense our model favors Houston by 8 points and Cleveland is due for a down game. In fact, the Browns apply to a 53-126-4 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their consecutive upset wins. I’ll lean with Houston at -7 or less. I’ll also lean over the total, as our model projects 50 points in this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.7
41.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.5%
52.0%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.4%
17.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.3%
35.4%
-
NYPP
7.0
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
28.9
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
28.8%
25.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.4%
49.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
55.1%
55.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.5
70.0
-
Early Down Succ
46.8%
53.2%
-
Succ Rate
44.5%
51.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.7%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
28.6
-
Run Ratio
42.3%
41.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
29.4
-
Game Control
-2.4
2.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.2
38.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.6%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
10.2%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
18.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.1%
40.7%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.6
24.7
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
22.2%
25.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.2%
41.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.0%
30.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
64.8
63.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.2%
46.3%
-
Succ Rate
45.5%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.4%
38.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
29.2
-
Run Ratio
49.0%
39.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.4
25.1
-
Game Control
2.6
-2.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PIT |
21 – 21 T |
-6.0 |
21.7% / 40.0% |
15.2% / 8.9% |
2.6% / 7.3% |
3.3 / 7.0 |
39.5% / 44.4% |
34.2% / 19.4% |
4.7 / 4.4 |
84 / 81 |
30.8% / 42.2% |
29.8% / 42.0% |
64.5% / 48.4% |
3.9 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 3.7% |
45.2% / 44.4% |
34.4 / 23.9 |
2 |
@NO |
18 – 21 L |
2.8 |
48.5% / 63.2% |
9.1% / 7.9% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
7.1 / 5.6 |
33.3% / 37.5% |
14.8% / 25.0% |
3.4 / 2.6 |
60 / 62 |
43.5% / 60.4% |
41.7% / 53.2% |
43.4% / 30.8% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
45.0% / 38.7% |
28.4 / 35.0 |
3 |
NYJ |
21 – 17 W |
-5.4 |
36.6% / 36.4% |
9.8% / 6.1% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
4.6 / 4.9 |
42.9% / 50.0% |
31.4% / 43.3% |
3.9 / 3.6 |
76 / 63 |
42.6% / 42.6% |
39.5% / 42.9% |
32.3% / 22.4% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
46.1% / 47.6% |
33.3 / 23.2 |
4 |
@OAK |
42 – 45 L |
2.1 |
37.2% / 53.3% |
4.7% / 5.0% |
4.9% / 3.5% |
6.5 / 7.1 |
43.8% / 33.3% |
21.9% / 36.7% |
6.5 / 4.7 |
75 / 90 |
42.1% / 52.1% |
40.0% / 46.7% |
57.8% / 44.2% |
6.5 / 6.3 |
2.7% / 0.0% |
42.7% / 33.3% |
26.1 / 34.9 |
5 |
BAL |
12 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.1% / 80.6% |
17.2% / 6.5% |
4.2% / 3.4% |
10.5 / 9.5 |
46.4% / 48.0% |
35.7% / 32.0% |
4.0 / 4.6 |
57 / 56 |
45.5% / 47.8% |
54.4% / 66.1% |
57.7% / 35.1% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
49.1% / 44.6% |
19.7 / 31.4 |
6 |
LAC |
14 – 38 L |
-14.7 |
39.2% / 45.5% |
9.8% / 4.5% |
4.3% / 4.8% |
4.2 / 9.2 |
42.9% / 63.2% |
33.3% / 13.2% |
4.9 / 6.5 |
72 / 60 |
41.5% / 68.8% |
40.3% / 56.7% |
50.2% / 69.2% |
4.4 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
29.2% / 63.3% |
34.2 / 30.5 |
7 |
@TB |
23 – 26 L |
-6.5 |
38.5% / 51.8% |
12.8% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
4.8 / 6.1 |
39.1% / 42.4% |
30.4% / 30.3% |
5.2 / 3.5 |
62 / 89 |
45.7% / 49.3% |
38.7% / 48.3% |
41.0% / 35.4% |
4.9 / 5.1 |
1.6% / 2.2% |
37.1% / 37.1% |
37.6 / 21.3 |
8 |
@PIT |
18 – 33 L |
-5.4 |
36.8% / 51.4% |
5.3% / 2.7% |
2.8% / 2.8% |
4.3 / 6.8 |
38.1% / 59.4% |
38.1% / 12.5% |
3.5 / 5.3 |
59 / 69 |
40.0% / 58.5% |
37.3% / 55.1% |
55.3% / 39.8% |
4.0 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
35.6% / 46.4% |
30.2 / 27.8 |
9 |
KC |
21 – 37 L |
-10.7 |
46.7% / 63.6% |
4.4% / 6.1% |
2.3% / 3.2% |
6.4 / 10.9 |
56.0% / 58.3% |
24.0% / 29.2% |
4.1 / 5.8 |
70 / 57 |
51.9% / 61.7% |
50.0% / 61.4% |
26.0% / 62.1% |
5.5 / 8.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.7% / 42.1% |
21.8 / 33.3 |
10 |
ATL |
28 – 16 W |
8.8 |
71.4% / 54.7% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
10.3 / 5.9 |
45.2% / 47.4% |
19.4% / 36.8% |
6.9 / 3.7 |
52 / 72 |
62.5% / 57.4% |
55.8% / 52.8% |
45.7% / 36.1% |
8.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 2.8% |
59.6% / 26.4% |
23.6 / 27.3 |
12 |
@CIN |
35 – 20 W |
17.6 |
69.2% / 48.9% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
9.9 / 5.2 |
47.2% / 55.0% |
27.8% / 25.0% |
2.4 / 6.5 |
62 / 67 |
60.4% / 54.9% |
56.5% / 50.7% |
51.2% / 40.1% |
5.5 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
58.1% / 29.9% |
33.8 / 27.0 |
13 |
@HOU |
13 – 29 L |
-14.2 |
58.5% / 45.7% |
0.0% / 11.4% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
9.7 / 5.6 |
55.6% / 47.5% |
33.3% / 7.5% |
3.4 / 4.7 |
50 / 75 |
63.4% / 47.4% |
58.0% / 46.7% |
52.6% / 37.1% |
8.6 / 5.1 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
18.0% / 53.3% |
19.9 / 29.5 |
14 |
CAR |
26 – 20 W |
-0.4 |
37.5% / 40.9% |
4.2% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
9.7 / 6.8 |
34.8% / 56.0% |
30.4% / 24.0% |
5.1 / 3.8 |
47 / 69 |
38.2% / 48.1% |
36.2% / 46.4% |
68.0% / 45.3% |
7.4 / 5.7 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
48.9% / 36.2% |
25.2 / 37.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NE |
20 – 27 L |
-10.6 |
29.7% / 48.8% |
8.1% / 4.9% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
4.3 / 6.5 |
45.7% / 38.7% |
25.7% / 9.7% |
4.8 / 3.9 |
72 / 72 |
43.1% / 47.4% |
37.5% / 44.4% |
37.4% / 38.0% |
4.5 / 5.4 |
1.4% / 2.8% |
48.6% / 43.1% |
35.4 / 25.4 |
2 |
@TEN |
17 – 20 L |
-6.4 |
48.6% / 39.1% |
11.4% / 4.3% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 8.0 |
42.3% / 35.3% |
11.5% / 14.7% |
5.7 / 2.9 |
61 / 57 |
46.0% / 35.0% |
45.9% / 36.8% |
53.1% / 27.9% |
7.2 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.6% / 59.6% |
26.6 / 23.2 |
3 |
NYG |
22 – 27 L |
-7.6 |
53.7% / 60.6% |
7.3% / 12.1% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
9.0 / 8.0 |
42.1% / 32.1% |
36.8% / 25.0% |
3.1 / 4.1 |
60 / 61 |
50.0% / 47.8% |
50.0% / 47.5% |
53.4% / 41.3% |
7.1 / 6.2 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 45.9% |
28.9 / 22.2 |
4 |
@IND |
37 – 34 W |
6.7 |
55.3% / 48.5% |
14.9% / 6.1% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.6 |
42.9% / 41.2% |
28.6% / 41.2% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
82 / 83 |
49.2% / 44.6% |
50.0% / 47.0% |
37.1% / 26.6% |
5.7 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 2.4% |
42.7% / 20.5% |
33.4 / 24.1 |
5 |
DAL |
19 – 16 W |
-0.3 |
79.4% / 65.0% |
2.9% / 10.0% |
3.0% / 11.1% |
11.0 / 9.7 |
32.3% / 36.7% |
32.3% / 30.0% |
2.8 / 3.3 |
65 / 50 |
53.3% / 43.2% |
56.9% / 48.0% |
30.1% / 52.9% |
7.1 / 5.9 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 60.0% |
27.9 / 30.8 |
6 |
BUF |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
27.3% / 29.0% |
21.2% / 6.5% |
7.7% / 6.9% |
4.3 / 4.2 |
36.0% / 40.7% |
28.0% / 22.2% |
3.0 / 3.7 |
58 / 58 |
34.9% / 32.6% |
31.0% / 34.5% |
34.1% / 46.3% |
3.7 / 3.9 |
1.7% / 1.7% |
43.1% / 46.6% |
36.5 / 28.2 |
7 |
@JAC |
20 – 7 W |
12.6 |
36.0% / 45.7% |
4.0% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
5.2 / 4.1 |
51.3% / 31.8% |
12.8% / 27.3% |
3.7 / 3.2 |
64 / 68 |
47.7% / 41.7% |
45.3% / 41.2% |
21.2% / 13.1% |
4.3 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
60.9% / 32.4% |
36.3 / 20.0 |
8 |
MIA |
42 – 23 W |
7.4 |
45.0% / 40.0% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
12.0 / 6.4 |
38.9% / 64.0% |
19.4% / 20.0% |
5.3 / 4.6 |
56 / 65 |
39.0% / 54.9% |
41.1% / 49.2% |
64.0% / 34.3% |
7.6 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
64.3% / 38.5% |
29.7 / 25.3 |
9 |
@DEN |
19 – 17 W |
3.8 |
53.6% / 47.7% |
14.3% / 4.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.9 / 6.2 |
39.4% / 35.0% |
30.3% / 40.0% |
3.0 / 3.8 |
61 / 64 |
51.1% / 43.8% |
45.9% / 43.8% |
10.7% / 38.5% |
4.8 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
54.1% / 31.3% |
31.4 / 22.5 |
11 |
@WAS |
23 – 21 W |
4.8 |
51.9% / 35.7% |
11.1% / 11.9% |
8.3% / 5.4% |
6.7 / 3.7 |
40.6% / 58.6% |
18.8% / 13.8% |
4.4 / 4.3 |
59 / 71 |
50.0% / 45.5% |
45.8% / 45.1% |
44.2% / 19.4% |
5.4 / 3.9 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
54.2% / 40.8% |
31.8 / 34.4 |
12 |
TEN |
34 – 17 W |
8.6 |
66.7% / 48.3% |
14.8% / 20.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 9.0 |
45.7% / 34.8% |
8.6% / 26.1% |
8.1 / 4.6 |
62 / 52 |
60.4% / 46.2% |
54.8% / 42.3% |
57.9% / 55.6% |
7.5 / 7.0 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
56.5% / 44.2% |
25.7 / 24.8 |
13 |
CLE |
29 – 13 W |
14.2 |
45.7% / 58.5% |
11.4% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 7.3% |
5.6 / 9.7 |
47.5% / 55.6% |
7.5% / 33.3% |
4.7 / 3.4 |
75 / 50 |
47.4% / 63.4% |
46.7% / 58.0% |
37.1% / 52.6% |
5.1 / 8.6 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
53.3% / 18.0% |
29.5 / 19.9 |
14 |
IND |
21 – 24 L |
-3.4 |
39.5% / 58.1% |
11.6% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
5.3 / 9.0 |
44.0% / 30.8% |
28.0% / 26.9% |
3.6 / 2.0 |
68 / 69 |
41.2% / 55.8% |
41.2% / 47.8% |
45.1% / 49.0% |
4.6 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.8% / 37.7% |
22.3 / 25.3 |