Cleveland Browns @

Houston Texans

Sun, Dec 2
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 359
Odds: Houston Texans -6, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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Lean – HOUSTON (-6.5) over Cleveland

Lean – Over (47)
Two of the hottest teams in the NFL clash here with the Texans winners of 8-straight and the Browns winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2014. Cleveland’s offense is gaining 6.5 yards per play under Freddie Kitchens compared to just 4.9 yards per play with Todd Haley and Hue Jackson. Nick Chubb is seeing a heavy workload with his running backs coach calling the plays, as Chubb has averaged 25.7 opportunities (attempts + targets) and 142.3 scrimmage yards per game under the new regime. Baker Mayfield has 9 touchdowns to just 1 interception, and his 0.35 expected points added per play ranks 5th among all quarterbacks since the change in play-caller as he’s getting the ball out quicker with an average time to throw of 2.51 seconds compared to 2.72 seconds prior to week 9. However, the uptick in production is not all due to the switch at offensive coordinator as the Browns faced Kansas City, Atlanta, and Cincinnati the last 3 games, defenses rated 1.8 points below average by our numbers, and Mayfield’s receivers are dropping only 4.4% of his catchable passes compared to 11.8% in his first 6 games. Overall, we’re upgrading Cleveland’s offense by 2 points with Kitchens at offensive coordinator.

The Browns top two defenders have the potential to make a significant impact against Houston’s offense. Myles Garrett, one of just 9 players with double-digit sacks thus far, will line up across from Julie’n Davenport, who ranks last among 59 qualifying tackles in pass block efficiency, and standout rookie cornerback Denzel Ward, surrendering just 0.88 yards per cover snap (17th), should battle with DeAndre Hopkins. Ward has held Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and Mike Evans to 8 yards per target this season, which is nearly 2 yards per target below their combined season average.

Despite the upgrade to Cleveland’s offense our model favors Houston by 8 points and Cleveland is due for a down game. In fact, the Browns apply to a 53-126-4 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their consecutive upset wins. I’ll lean with Houston at -7 or less. I’ll also lean over the total, as our model projects 50 points in this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Texans
CLE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.7 41.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.5% 52.0%
  • Sack Rate 7.1% 5.7%
  • Int Rate 2.8% 3.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.4% 17.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.3% 35.4%
  • NYPP 7.0 7.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.8 28.9
  • RB YPR 4.2 4.5
  • Stuff Rate 28.8% 25.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 43.4% 49.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 55.1% 55.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.6




Game

  • All Snaps 63.5 70.0
  • Early Down Succ 46.8% 53.2%
  • Succ Rate 44.5% 51.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 49.7% 42.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.9 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 28.6
  • Run Ratio 42.3% 41.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.3 29.4
  • Game Control -2.4 2.4
 
  • Points 22.5 25.5
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