Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (41.5) – Cleveland at DENVER

Lean – DENVER (-5.5)

• Jameis Winston has a 10.6-yard average depth of target since taking over as Cleveland’s starter compared to Deshaun Watson averaging just 7.1 air yards per attempt.
• Part of the added downfield aggressiveness is due to Winston and part is due to the Browns offensive line improving after four of the five starters missed games in the first half of the season. Winston has a 51% clean pocket rate (2nd).
• Broncos’ interior defender Zach Allen ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency but he was wearing a walking boot on his right foot and is nursing a heel injury.
• Cleveland backup LT Germain Ifedi could struggle across from edge defender Nik Bonitto, who ranks 14th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Denver interior defender John Franklin-Myers has 31 pressures (15th) and he will be contained by RG Wyatt Teller, who ranks 14th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Browns WR Jerry Jeudy leads the NFL with 22 receptions on balls thrown between 10 and 19 yards in the air. Cleveland’s coaching staff will look to get Jeudy in the slot rather than on the outside across from CB Pat Surtain, who is allowing a league-low 0.47 yards per cover snap. Broncos nickelback Ja’Quan McMillian is surrendering 1.48 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd-worst).
• Cleveland edge defender Myles Garrett had 3.0 sacks last week against Pittsburgh, but he will be limited on Monday night by LT Garett Bolles, who ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Denver’s offense has a yppp versus single-high safety coverage a league-high 26% more than versus two-high and Bo Nix has a favorable matchup as the Browns defense leads the NFL with a 63% single-high safety rate.
• The Broncos’ playoff chances would increase to 78% with a win by our metrics but would drop to roughly a coin flip if Denver were to lose.
• Our model favors the Broncos by 7.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.6 points.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 42 or less.