Game Analysis

DENVER (-1.5) vs Cleveland

Lean – Over (35.5)

· Cleveland’s offense wants to press two levers with quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and both have a favorable matchup in this game. The Browns want to get yards on the ground to take pressure off the rookie quarterback and they want to throw to TE David Njoku, who had 15 targets last week.

· Denver’s defense is surrendering a 43.3% rush success rate (29th) and they’ve allowed a league-high 4.8 yards per carry in the last three weeks.

· The Broncos are surrendering a 64% success rate to tight ends (31st) and starting safety Kareem Jackson is suspended while backup safety PJ Locke is likely out due to an ankle injury.

· Thompson-Robinson will have clean pockets when throwing to Njoku as RG Wyatt Teller ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency and he should limit interior defender Zach Allen, who has 34 pressures (10th).

· Broncos edge rusher Jonathon Cooper had 7 pressures last week (5th) but he will be contained by RT Dawand Jones, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Russell Wilson is averaging a league-high 36% more yards per attempt against man coverage than zone this season and the passing game could surprise some on Sunday. The Browns have a 39.4% man-coverage rate (2nd-highest) and they will likely be without starting safety Juan Thornhill as well as backup safety Rodney McLeod, who is out for the season after a biceps injury last game.

· Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 13.0 sacks, and he will battle with Denver LT Garett Bolles, who ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Broncos RG Quinn Meinerz is one of 7 qualifying guards to have not conceded a sack and he will limit interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model makes Denver a 1.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 38.8 points.