Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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CINCINNATI (+2.5/+3) over Cleveland

It has been a disappointing season for Cleveland’s offense, particularly Odell Beckham, but the wide receiver has a chance to finish strong in week 17 as Bengals’ top outside cornerback William Jackson is potentially out with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Jarvis Landry is gaining 2.02 yards per route run in the slot (4th) but he will be locked up by nickelback Darqueze Dennard, who is surrendering only 0.64 yards per slot cover snap since week 7 when he made his season debut (4th). Browns running backs are averaging 1.4 more targets per game since Kareem Hunt’s suspension was lifted in week 10 and Cincinnati’s defense is allowing 7.6 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th). Geno Atkins ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders but he will be neutralized by left guard Joel Bitonio, who is conceding less than 1 pressure per game.

The Bengals rank 28th in pass blocking efficiency but the Browns have not been able to get to the quarterback recently without edge rushers Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon. Cleveland’s defense is generating 2.5 less pressures per game as a result of Garrett’s suspension and Vernon’s knee injury. John Ross is gaining 1.94 yards per route run (23rd) but only played in 7 games while Tyler Boyd is averaging 1.83 yards per slot route run (7th). Andy Dalton has solid wide receivers but the Browns have a strong young cornerback group led by Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams.

In general, I think both of these offenses are underrated but nasty weather is expected in Cincinnati on Sunday, which could be worth more than 5 points according to our metrics. Both of these defenses are in the bottom 5 versus the run so we should see some success on the ground from Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon. Our model makes Cleveland a 1.3-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.8, and Cincinnati applies to a 58-22-3 ATS last home game underdog situation. I’ll lean slightly with the Bengals but would pass the total since there are some under trends that apply.

Team Stats
Game Log

Browns
Bengals

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.4 34.8
Succ Pass Plays 42.5% 45.6%
Sack Rate 6.2% 7.1%
Int Rate 3.7% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 20.8% 18.3%
Big Pass Yards 48.2% 41.7%
NYPP 6.1 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 24.9 28.3
RB YPR 4.9 4.6
Stuff Rate 20.8% 20.8%
Succ Rush Plays 45.2% 47.2%
Big Rush Yards 49.4% 47.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.9 4.9

Game

All Snaps 61.3 63.1
Early Down Succ 46.1% 50.3%
Succ Rate 43.7% 46.3%
Big Yards Rate 49.2% 45.7%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 28.7
Run Ratio 40.7% 44.8%
Starting Field Pos 29.3 27.9
Game Control -0.4 0.4

Points 20.8 24.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TEN	13 – 43 L	-7.1	39.5% / 35.7%	11.6% / 14.3%	7.9% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.7	45.0% / 50.0%	5.0% / 21.4%	5.1 / 4.4	63 / 56	49.0% / 50.0%	41.3% / 42.9%	47.4% / 67.8%	5.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.7% / 50.0%	22.6 / 34.4
2	@NYJ	23 – 3 W	12.5	34.2% / 25.7%	7.9% / 11.4%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.0 / 4.8	28.6% / 41.7%	38.1% / 37.5%	3.3 / 3.9	59 / 59	33.3% / 39.5%	32.2% / 32.2%	74.4% / 42.4%	6.4 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.7%	35.6% / 40.7%	33.6 / 18.0
3	LA	13 – 20 L	-1.5	38.5% / 47.5%	7.7% / 5.0%	2.8% / 5.3%	4.5 / 6.4	37.5% / 50.0%	25.0% / 16.7%	4.0 / 3.8	63 / 64	40.0% / 51.0%	38.1% / 48.4%	44.1% / 24.1%	4.3 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.6%	38.1% / 37.5%	33.1 / 26.4
4	@BAL	40 – 25 W	7.4	50.0% / 52.6%	3.1% / 10.5%	3.2% / 5.9%	10.5 / 5.8	51.7% / 58.6%	24.1% / 13.8%	6.7 / 6.0	61 / 67	52.2% / 59.3%	50.8% / 55.2%	55.3% / 39.7%	8.7 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.5%	47.5% / 43.3%	26.2 / 27.8
5	@SF	3 – 31 L	-18.3	25.0% / 41.9%	14.3% / 6.5%	8.3% / 0.0%	2.8 / 5.5	33.3% / 37.5%	22.2% / 20.0%	5.7 / 6.9	46 / 71	34.3% / 40.4%	28.3% / 39.4%	71.1% / 52.0%	3.9 / 6.3	4.3% / 0.0%	39.1% / 56.3%	26.1 / 34.0
6	SEA	28 – 32 L	3.3	45.9% / 61.1%	0.0% / 8.3%	8.1% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.9	50.0% / 52.6%	20.8% / 15.8%	6.5 / 4.5	61 / 74	48.0% / 61.0%	47.5% / 56.8%	48.5% / 46.9%	6.7 / 6.1	1.6% / 1.4%	39.3% / 51.4%	36.0 / 31.8
8	@NE	13 – 27 L	-12.1	38.9% / 43.6%	13.9% / 7.7%	3.2% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.1	59.1% / 33.3%	22.7% / 40.7%	7.2 / 2.9	58 / 66	53.3% / 39.6%	46.6% / 39.4%	59.7% / 52.8%	5.3 / 4.8	3.4% / 0.0%	37.9% / 40.9%	25.2 / 36.2
9	@DEN	19 – 24 L	-6.2	45.5% / 39.1%	4.5% / 13.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 7.6	37.9% / 45.0%	20.7% / 15.0%	3.1 / 6.4	73 / 43	44.6% / 46.9%	42.5% / 41.9%	38.2% / 71.9%	4.8 / 7.0	0.0% / 2.3%	39.7% / 46.5%	34.2 / 23.4
10	BUF	19 – 16 W	2.5	47.5% / 42.9%	5.0% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.5 / 6.2	53.8% / 40.0%	30.8% / 15.0%	5.7 / 4.2	66 / 62	53.8% / 46.8%	50.0% / 41.9%	32.1% / 42.4%	5.6 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	39.4% / 32.3%	24.8 / 24.5
11	PIT	21 – 7 W	9.7	30.3% / 41.7%	3.0% / 8.3%	0.0% / 9.1%	5.7 / 3.7	37.1% / 37.5%	31.4% / 37.5%	3.0 / 3.6	68 / 64	33.3% / 48.0%	33.8% / 40.6%	54.6% / 28.8%	4.3 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	51.5% / 25.0%	41.5 / 21.8
12	MIA	41 – 24 W	16.5	60.0% / 37.2%	2.9% / 9.3%	2.9% / 5.1%	9.1 / 4.5	59.4% / 40.0%	6.3% / 15.0%	4.6 / 4.6	67 / 63	62.1% / 38.3%	59.7% / 38.1%	35.3% / 25.7%	7.0 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 31.7%	32.2 / 28.5
13	@PIT	13 – 20 L	-1.7	38.5% / 50.0%	12.8% / 4.5%	2.9% / 4.8%	4.4 / 9.0	50.0% / 46.9%	12.5% / 18.8%	4.4 / 3.9	63 / 54	44.9% / 52.4%	42.9% / 48.1%	39.1% / 54.2%	4.4 / 6.0	1.6% / 0.0%	38.1% / 59.3%	26.4 / 30.8
14	CIN	27 – 19 W	3.3	40.0% / 51.2%	4.0% / 4.9%	8.3% / 2.6%	7.5 / 6.6	48.1% / 58.1%	18.5% / 12.9%	5.4 / 5.8	52 / 72	41.0% / 62.5%	44.2% / 54.2%	61.6% / 42.6%	6.4 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 43.1%	26.2 / 26.0
15	@ARI	24 – 38 L	-9.1	52.3% / 56.0%	2.3% / 0.0%	2.3% / 4.0%	5.5 / 8.8	56.5% / 57.1%	4.3% / 17.1%	6.6 / 6.5	67 / 60	51.0% / 58.0%	53.7% / 56.7%	35.1% / 46.5%	5.9 / 7.4	1.5% / 0.0%	34.3% / 58.3%	25.5 / 32.3
16	BAL	15 – 31 L	-5.1	51.5% / 58.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.7	30.0% / 60.0%	30.0% / 15.0%	2.5 / 6.1	53 / 71	50.0% / 61.4%	43.4% / 59.2%	41.9% / 47.2%	4.5 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.4%	37.7% / 56.3%	26.5 / 22.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SEA	20 – 21 L	0.8	46.4% / 37.5%	8.9% / 16.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.1 / 6.7	21.4% / 36.0%	35.7% / 28.0%	2.4 / 2.9	70 / 49	42.6% / 40.0%	41.4% / 36.7%	49.9% / 61.4%	6.1 / 4.8	4.3% / 2.0%	20.0% / 51.0%	27.8 / 31.0
2	SF	17 – 41 L	-16.7	37.0% / 65.4%	8.7% / 0.0%	2.4% / 3.8%	6.3 / 12.0	31.6% / 64.3%	52.6% / 9.5%	1.3 / 6.2	65 / 68	30.4% / 68.4%	35.4% / 64.7%	53.2% / 63.1%	4.9 / 8.4	0.0% / 0.0%	29.2% / 61.8%	25.6 / 29.6
3	@BUF	17 – 21 L	-6.7	44.7% / 45.9%	5.3% / 2.7%	5.6% / 2.8%	6.3 / 6.5	36.8% / 55.6%	31.6% / 19.4%	3.5 / 4.9	57 / 73	46.7% / 55.2%	42.1% / 50.7%	52.9% / 40.6%	5.4 / 5.7	3.5% / 1.4%	33.3% / 49.3%	30.5 / 29.6
4	@PIT	3 – 27 L	-10.4	24.4% / 71.0%	17.8% / 0.0%	2.7% / 0.0%	2.3 / 8.4	57.9% / 36.0%	21.1% / 40.0%	3.8 / 2.6	64 / 56	36.2% / 63.6%	34.4% / 55.4%	21.7% / 39.9%	2.7 / 5.8	1.6% / 1.8%	29.7% / 44.6%	30.3 / 32.9
5	ARI	23 – 26 L	-4.5	53.8% / 45.5%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.5	65.2% / 57.9%	30.4% / 13.2%	4.7 / 7.0	62 / 71	63.3% / 53.6%	58.1% / 52.1%	31.6% / 53.5%	6.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	37.1% / 53.5%	25.0 / 27.6
6	@BAL	17 – 23 L	-7.4	43.9% / 55.9%	4.9% / 2.9%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.7	21.4% / 58.1%	42.9% / 18.6%	2.4 / 6.3	55 / 77	36.4% / 59.3%	38.2% / 57.1%	44.8% / 45.1%	4.5 / 6.5	0.0% / 1.3%	25.5% / 55.8%	27.3 / 25.5
7	JAC	17 – 27 L	-2.4	37.8% / 38.2%	4.4% / 5.9%	7.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.2	30.0% / 52.3%	50.0% / 25.0%	1.7 / 4.9	65 / 78	34.0% / 53.4%	35.4% / 46.2%	53.6% / 66.7%	4.5 / 5.9	1.5% / 0.0%	30.8% / 56.4%	29.1 / 28.6
8	@LA	10 – 24 L	-8.5	38.6% / 51.6%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 12.0	36.4% / 38.5%	9.1% / 42.3%	4.7 / 3.8	79 / 57	38.5% / 43.2%	38.0% / 45.6%	47.1% / 70.6%	5.1 / 8.2	0.0% / 0.0%	27.8% / 45.6%	21.8 / 15.6
10	BAL	13 – 49 L	-22.7	40.6% / 69.6%	6.3% / 4.3%	3.3% / 4.5%	4.7 / 10.6	62.5% / 65.2%	30.0% / 17.4%	3.9 / 5.9	72 / 46	56.6% / 70.3%	52.8% / 67.4%	29.6% / 46.4%	4.3 / 8.2	2.8% / 0.0%	55.6% / 50.0%	31.4 / 31.1
11	@OAK	10 – 17 L	-1.9	22.2% / 50.0%	13.9% / 9.4%	3.2% / 3.4%	2.0 / 8.5	59.1% / 41.2%	9.1% / 23.5%	7.9 / 3.3	58 / 66	39.5% / 46.8%	36.2% / 45.5%	58.5% / 56.7%	4.2 / 5.8	1.7% / 1.5%	37.9% / 51.5%	26.4 / 30.7
12	PIT	10 – 16 L	-0.7	26.7% / 30.0%	13.3% / 10.0%	0.0% / 3.7%	5.3 / 6.0	38.1% / 36.8%	19.0% / 21.1%	4.1 / 4.2	51 / 68	35.9% / 36.7%	31.4% / 33.8%	50.8% / 57.5%	4.8 / 5.0	3.9% / 0.0%	41.2% / 55.9%	23.8 / 30.4
13	NYJ	22 – 6 W	7.8	44.7% / 36.5%	2.6% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 4.0	36.0% / 41.2%	24.0% / 11.8%	1.8 / 3.6	63 / 69	45.7% / 38.8%	41.3% / 37.7%	0.0% / 14.8%	4.4 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	39.7% / 24.6%	36.1 / 17.8
14	@CLE	19 – 27 L	-3.3	51.2% / 40.0%	4.9% / 4.0%	2.6% / 8.3%	6.6 / 7.5	58.1% / 48.1%	12.9% / 18.5%	5.8 / 5.4	72 / 52	62.5% / 41.0%	54.2% / 44.2%	42.6% / 61.6%	6.3 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 51.9%	26.0 / 26.2
15	NE	13 – 34 L	-7.6	41.9% / 29.0%	0.0% / 6.5%	12.9% / 0.0%	4.9 / 3.7	46.9% / 62.5%	12.5% / 15.6%	5.1 / 5.5	63 / 63	48.9% / 50.0%	44.4% / 46.0%	40.6% / 47.1%	5.0 / 4.6	1.6% / 0.0%	50.8% / 50.8%	26.8 / 35.3
16	@MIA	35 – 38 L	-15.0	48.3% / 48.1%	6.7% / 3.7%	0.0% / 1.9%	6.2 / 7.5	24.0% / 38.2%	28.0% / 35.3%	2.4 / 2.8	85 / 88	44.4% / 47.8%	41.2% / 44.3%	28.4% / 44.6%	5.1 / 5.7	1.2% / 0.0%	29.4% / 38.6%	28.1 / 24.7

Cleveland Browns @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Dec 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis