Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved up to -7.5 but the Bears as still a Best Bet at -7.5 or -8.

1-Star Best Bet – *CHICAGO (-7 -115) over Cleveland

Lean – Over (39)

• Shedeur Sanders averaged 3.57 seconds to throw versus Tennessee, the 2nd-longest by a quarterback this year. The Titans pressured Sanders on 63.0% of his dropbacks, which is the highest pressure rate of any defense in a game this season.
• Sanders is playing completely unsustainably, and he only has a 37.6% success rate, ranking 43rd out of 44 qualifying quarterbacks.
• Sanders will be behind an offensive line down three starters with RT Jack Conklin not practicing this week after his second concussion of the season.
• Cleveland’s offense could also be without TE David Njoku, who is 3rd on the Browns in yards per route run.
• Chicago’s defense is conceding 0.14 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (9th), and they will limit remaining TE Harold Fannin, who is averaging 1.73 yards per route run (3rd).
• The Bears’ defense ranks 3rd relatively against heavy personnel compared to when opponents do not have only two wide receivers on the field, and they will shut down Cleveland’s offense, which utilizes heavy personnel 46% of their plays (2nd-highest).
• Chicago’s offense will likely be missing WR Rome Odunze again, but I don’t think he’s worth more than a half point. Bears’ WR Luther Burden is averaging 0.13 more EPA/target than Odunze. Additionally, rookie TE Colston Loveland has come on lately, averaging 1.90 yards per route run since week 7 (2nd), which was his first week back from the hip injury in which he was on the field for more than half the snaps.
• The Browns have a 41% pressure rate (3rd), but they will be contained by a Bears offensive line ranking 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.
• Cleveland interior defender Maliek Collins is out for the season, and he is worth 0.5 points by our metrics. Collins ranks 14th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Browns Pro Bowl CB Denzel Ward couldn’t practice all week due to a calf injury and likely won’t play. Backup cornerback Sam Webb has 51 combined snaps in the last three seasons, while Ward is allowing less than 7 yards per target.
• Our model favors the Bears by 12.2 points with a predicted total of 41.8 points.

Chicago is a 1-Star Best Bet at -8 or less.