Game Analysis
*Under (38.5) – Cleveland at CHICAGO
Lean – Cleveland (+6.5)
Chicago’s defense is still underrated because they played much of the season without an impact player on the field. The Bears allow just 4.9 yards per play with both Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan in the lineup compared to 5.8 yards per play allowed in games either missed due to injury. Furthermore, Chicago safety Adrian Amos will likely return in this game providing another boost for the Bears. Amos was having an excellent 3rd season before missing the last three games, as he was averaging 15.5 tackles for every missed tackle (4th best in the league) while also being good in pass coverage (only 0.33 yards per cover snap (9th)).
Conversely, Chicago’s offense appears to be overvalued with an implied team total of 22. The Bears have only managed 20 points on four occasions and this would not seem like the matchup to buck the trend. Chicago has the 3rd-highest rushing rate in the league after factoring out garbage time and they gained more than 200 yards on the ground in all four games they topped 20 points. However, the greatest strength of the Browns is their 3rd-rated rush defense and I expect the Bears to be forced out of their game offensively, which will likely result in a sub-20 point game and an under.
Our model projects just 34 total points in this game even without factoring in the match-up, which points to an even lower scoring game. I’ll play the Under in a 1-Star Best Bet at 38 points or higher.
I’ll also lean with Cleveland in this game based on the favorable match-up of their strong run defense against a run-oriented team and a 123-40-2 ATS situation that plays on the road dog off a loss in a game between two losing teams.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.3
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
34.8%
47.6%
-
Sack Rate
8.0%
5.6%
-
Int Rate
4.8%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.4%
12.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.5%
36.0%
-
NYPP
5.1
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.3
30.9
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.0
-
Stuff Rate
21.5%
29.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.2%
35.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.5%
42.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
66.6
-
Early Down Succ
40.4%
44.8%
-
Succ Rate
38.9%
42.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.8%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.4
29.8
-
Run Ratio
38.1%
46.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.3
29.9
-
Game Control
-6.0
6.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.8
35.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.0%
45.2%
-
Sack Rate
9.4%
7.8%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.2%
32.9%
-
NYPP
5.6
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.4
27.9
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
28.5%
17.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.2%
43.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
53.2%
35.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
59.1
63.9
-
Early Down Succ
41.2%
45.9%
-
Succ Rate
39.7%
43.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.5%
36.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.7
-
Run Ratio
46.3%
43.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.3
29.1
-
Game Control
-3.4
3.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PIT |
18 – 21 L |
-5.8 |
43.2% / 45.9% |
18.9% / 2.7% |
3.3% / 2.8% |
4.9 / 6.9 |
36.0% / 16.0% |
16.0% / 16.0% |
2.3 / 1.5 |
62 / 62 |
41.7% / 41.0% |
40.3% / 33.9% |
45.1% / 35.2% |
3.8 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 40.3% |
28.6 / 20.8 |
2 |
@BAL |
10 – 24 L |
-9.4 |
31.1% / 50.0% |
6.7% / 5.6% |
9.5% / 2.9% |
6.5 / 5.6 |
38.1% / 36.4% |
23.8% / 27.3% |
4.4 / 4.2 |
66 / 69 |
36.5% / 47.3% |
33.3% / 43.5% |
67.1% / 39.9% |
5.8 / 4.9 |
1.5% / 1.4% |
31.8% / 47.8% |
22.3 / 33.9 |
3 |
@IND |
28 – 31 L |
-9.2 |
35.4% / 33.3% |
2.1% / 11.1% |
6.4% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 9.0 |
57.1% / 27.0% |
19.0% / 37.8% |
5.3 / 2.5 |
69 / 64 |
42.9% / 24.4% |
42.0% / 29.7% |
53.8% / 63.7% |
5.0 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
30.4% / 57.8% |
28.9 / 29.6 |
4 |
CIN |
7 – 31 L |
-16.5 |
29.5% / 60.6% |
4.5% / 9.1% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 8.0 |
41.2% / 40.0% |
35.3% / 26.7% |
2.6 / 2.9 |
61 / 63 |
32.6% / 50.0% |
32.8% / 50.8% |
33.0% / 43.4% |
3.5 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
27.9% / 47.6% |
26.4 / 28.3 |
5 |
NYJ |
14 – 17 L |
-1.7 |
45.9% / 51.5% |
2.7% / 9.1% |
5.6% / 3.3% |
7.5 / 5.4 |
45.5% / 19.0% |
18.2% / 33.3% |
4.2 / 1.8 |
70 / 54 |
46.3% / 45.9% |
45.7% / 38.9% |
40.1% / 32.1% |
6.0 / 4.0 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.1% / 38.9% |
30.1 / 29.0 |
6 |
@HOU |
17 – 33 L |
-16.2 |
31.7% / 50.0% |
9.8% / 3.3% |
8.1% / 3.4% |
2.8 / 7.2 |
63.6% / 26.5% |
13.6% / 26.5% |
6.1 / 3.6 |
63 / 64 |
49.0% / 38.8% |
42.9% / 37.5% |
39.7% / 47.5% |
3.9 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 53.1% |
28.0 / 24.9 |
7 |
TEN |
9 – 12 L |
-2.1 |
39.0% / 41.7% |
4.9% / 5.6% |
7.7% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
25.9% / 31.3% |
22.2% / 46.9% |
2.5 / 2.5 |
68 / 68 |
37.3% / 38.0% |
33.8% / 36.8% |
23.9% / 14.5% |
4.2 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
39.7% / 47.1% |
25.1 / 33.6 |
8 |
MIN |
16 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
29.7% / 52.3% |
8.1% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
4.4 / 6.5 |
54.5% / 41.2% |
9.1% / 29.4% |
5.2 / 2.6 |
59 / 78 |
42.2% / 50.0% |
39.0% / 47.4% |
41.3% / 28.8% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 43.6% |
31.2 / 32.8 |
10 |
@DET |
24 – 38 L |
-0.7 |
29.5% / 36.7% |
9.1% / 13.3% |
2.5% / 3.8% |
4.8 / 8.0 |
60.6% / 42.9% |
30.3% / 28.6% |
6.1 / 5.0 |
77 / 51 |
41.4% / 41.7% |
42.9% / 39.2% |
48.9% / 73.8% |
5.4 / 6.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 41.2% |
28.4 / 28.8 |
11 |
JAC |
7 – 19 L |
-3.9 |
32.4% / 31.3% |
13.5% / 6.3% |
6.3% / 0.0% |
3.6 / 4.5 |
36.8% / 31.1% |
26.3% / 35.6% |
2.7 / 3.1 |
56 / 77 |
40.0% / 32.1% |
33.9% / 31.2% |
42.2% / 24.2% |
3.3 / 3.7 |
5.4% / 1.3% |
33.9% / 58.4% |
30.4 / 33.0 |
12 |
@CIN |
16 – 30 L |
-8.7 |
34.3% / 55.2% |
11.4% / 3.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 7.2 |
54.8% / 50.0% |
25.8% / 21.9% |
5.5 / 4.8 |
66 / 61 |
43.8% / 58.3% |
43.9% / 52.5% |
70.1% / 36.1% |
6.1 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.0% / 52.5% |
23.7 / 33.4 |
13 |
@LAC |
10 – 19 L |
-4.7 |
34.3% / 56.8% |
8.6% / 2.3% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 7.6 |
45.5% / 40.7% |
31.8% / 29.6% |
4.0 / 3.6 |
57 / 71 |
37.8% / 52.9% |
38.6% / 50.7% |
68.0% / 35.7% |
5.1 / 6.1 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 38.0% |
24.3 / 26.6 |
14 |
GB |
21 – 27 L |
4.5 |
43.3% / 57.4% |
6.7% / 2.1% |
7.1% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 5.4 |
39.3% / 39.3% |
14.3% / 32.1% |
4.9 / 3.1 |
58 / 75 |
39.5% / 51.9% |
41.4% / 50.7% |
32.7% / 28.7% |
6.0 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.3% / 37.3% |
22.4 / 28.5 |
15 |
BAL |
10 – 27 L |
-7.8 |
28.2% / 44.2% |
5.1% / 2.3% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 6.5 |
47.4% / 57.6% |
15.8% / 21.2% |
6.8 / 3.0 |
58 / 76 |
34.9% / 55.4% |
34.5% / 50.0% |
35.3% / 39.2% |
4.6 / 5.0 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 43.4% |
18.8 / 36.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
ATL |
17 – 23 L |
-2.5 |
31.8% / 50.0% |
9.1% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.0 / 9.6 |
52.6% / 32.0% |
15.8% / 24.0% |
6.6 / 2.6 |
63 / 57 |
37.5% / 45.2% |
38.1% / 42.1% |
31.2% / 49.7% |
4.8 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.2% / 43.9% |
28.1 / 18.3 |
2 |
@TB |
7 – 29 L |
-18.1 |
56.5% / 48.5% |
2.2% / 6.1% |
4.4% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 5.9 |
25.0% / 36.1% |
43.8% / 11.1% |
1.3 / 3.3 |
62 / 69 |
50.0% / 41.2% |
48.4% / 42.0% |
6.5% / 14.4% |
5.0 / 4.5 |
3.2% / 1.4% |
25.8% / 52.2% |
27.0 / 31.1 |
3 |
PIT |
23 – 17 W |
4.4 |
33.3% / 47.6% |
8.3% / 7.1% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 5.0 |
44.7% / 64.7% |
28.9% / 5.9% |
5.8 / 4.1 |
62 / 59 |
42.0% / 56.3% |
40.3% / 52.5% |
55.3% / 29.4% |
4.9 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 3.4% |
61.3% / 28.8% |
32.7 / 36.4 |
4 |
@GB |
14 – 35 L |
-16.9 |
38.2% / 41.4% |
2.9% / 6.9% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 48.0% |
26.7% / 4.0% |
3.4 / 3.7 |
64 / 54 |
36.0% / 43.2% |
39.1% / 44.4% |
25.6% / 50.6% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
46.9% / 46.3% |
28.5 / 33.5 |
5 |
MIN |
17 – 20 L |
-0.9 |
37.0% / 50.0% |
3.7% / 11.1% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 3.9 |
48.3% / 35.5% |
13.8% / 25.8% |
4.0 / 5.1 |
56 / 67 |
46.5% / 44.2% |
42.9% / 43.3% |
34.7% / 30.3% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
51.8% / 46.3% |
26.6 / 30.9 |
6 |
@BAL |
27 – 24 W |
4.4 |
28.6% / 27.3% |
19.0% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
5.3 / 3.8 |
41.8% / 46.2% |
29.1% / 15.4% |
4.2 / 4.8 |
76 / 70 |
42.1% / 37.3% |
38.2% / 34.3% |
41.1% / 21.6% |
4.5 / 4.2 |
2.6% / 1.4% |
72.4% / 37.1% |
27.6 / 29.9 |
7 |
CAR |
17 – 3 W |
11.4 |
18.2% / 41.0% |
36.4% / 12.8% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
7.7 / 4.7 |
32.3% / 33.3% |
16.1% / 33.3% |
2.3 / 3.6 |
42 / 69 |
41.7% / 37.7% |
28.6% / 37.7% |
67.3% / 49.8% |
3.7 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
73.8% / 43.5% |
28.7 / 24.6 |
8 |
@NO |
12 – 20 L |
-7.8 |
32.4% / 50.0% |
5.9% / 6.7% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
4.4 / 9.5 |
45.2% / 36.4% |
32.3% / 18.2% |
5.1 / 3.2 |
65 / 63 |
36.2% / 52.1% |
38.5% / 42.9% |
61.2% / 57.9% |
4.7 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
47.7% / 52.4% |
24.8 / 30.8 |
10 |
GB |
16 – 23 L |
-5.0 |
37.5% / 50.0% |
12.5% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.5 |
29.4% / 52.6% |
35.3% / 15.8% |
3.2 / 4.2 |
57 / 66 |
35.7% / 55.3% |
35.1% / 51.5% |
51.1% / 39.1% |
5.7 / 5.2 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
29.8% / 57.6% |
26.5 / 30.8 |
11 |
DET |
24 – 27 L |
0.0 |
48.4% / 52.9% |
3.2% / 8.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 8.4 |
60.0% / 40.0% |
13.3% / 40.0% |
7.4 / 2.6 |
61 / 59 |
56.9% / 53.2% |
54.1% / 47.5% |
45.5% / 39.4% |
6.5 / 6.0 |
1.6% / 1.7% |
49.2% / 42.4% |
23.9 / 24.0 |
12 |
@PHI |
3 – 31 L |
-17.1 |
22.9% / 45.0% |
5.7% / 2.5% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 6.1 |
6.7% / 41.7% |
53.3% / 22.2% |
0.5 / 5.0 |
50 / 76 |
18.2% / 45.1% |
18.0% / 43.4% |
7.8% / 32.6% |
2.8 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 3.9% |
30.0% / 47.4% |
27.9 / 40.5 |
13 |
SF |
14 – 15 L |
2.5 |
47.1% / 56.4% |
11.8% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
5.0 / 7.1 |
21.1% / 45.7% |
26.3% / 22.9% |
3.3 / 3.2 |
36 / 74 |
26.9% / 50.9% |
33.3% / 51.4% |
23.8% / 27.5% |
4.1 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.8% / 47.3% |
25.7 / 24.9 |
14 |
@CIN |
33 – 7 W |
9.2 |
54.5% / 30.0% |
6.1% / 7.5% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
7.6 / 4.1 |
55.3% / 53.8% |
31.6% / 7.7% |
6.1 / 5.4 |
71 / 53 |
58.6% / 38.5% |
54.9% / 35.8% |
43.6% / 33.3% |
6.8 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
53.5% / 24.5% |
30.9 / 23.5 |
15 |
@DET |
10 – 20 L |
-10.6 |
45.8% / 43.2% |
4.2% / 10.8% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 5.5 |
46.7% / 38.1% |
33.3% / 4.8% |
2.9 / 4.4 |
63 / 58 |
48.0% / 41.9% |
46.0% / 41.4% |
16.6% / 27.9% |
5.5 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
23.8% / 36.2% |
23.9 / 28.0 |