Cleveland Browns @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Dec 24
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 111
Odds: Chicago Bears -6.5, Total: 38

Game Analysis

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*Under (38.5) – Cleveland at CHICAGO

Lean – Cleveland (+6.5)

Chicago’s defense is still underrated because they played much of the season without an impact player on the field. The Bears allow just 4.9 yards per play with both Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan in the lineup compared to 5.8 yards per play allowed in games either missed due to injury. Furthermore, Chicago safety Adrian Amos will likely return in this game providing another boost for the Bears. Amos was having an excellent 3rd season before missing the last three games, as he was averaging 15.5 tackles for every missed tackle (4th best in the league) while also being good in pass coverage (only 0.33 yards per cover snap (9th)).

Conversely, Chicago’s offense appears to be overvalued with an implied team total of 22. The Bears have only managed 20 points on four occasions and this would not seem like the matchup to buck the trend. Chicago has the 3rd-highest rushing rate in the league after factoring out garbage time and they gained more than 200 yards on the ground in all four games they topped 20 points. However, the greatest strength of the Browns is their 3rd-rated rush defense and I expect the Bears to be forced out of their game offensively, which will likely result in a sub-20 point game and an under.

Our model projects just 34 total points in this game even without factoring in the match-up, which points to an even lower scoring game. I’ll play the Under in a 1-Star Best Bet at 38 points or higher.

I’ll also lean with Cleveland in this game based on the favorable match-up of their strong run defense against a run-oriented team and a 123-40-2 ATS situation that plays on the road dog off a loss in a game between two losing teams.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Browns
  • Bears
CLE
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.3 35.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 34.8% 47.6%
  • Sack Rate 8.0% 5.6%
  • Int Rate 4.8% 1.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.4% 12.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 44.5% 36.0%
  • NYPP 5.1 6.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.3 30.9
  • RB YPR 4.3 3.0
  • Stuff Rate 21.5% 29.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.2% 35.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.5% 42.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 3.2




Game

  • All Snaps 63.6 66.6
  • Early Down Succ 40.4% 44.8%
  • Succ Rate 38.9% 42.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 45.8% 38.8%
  • Yards Per Play 4.8 5.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.4 29.8
  • Run Ratio 38.1% 46.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.3 29.9
  • Game Control -6.0 6.0
 
  • Points 14.8 25.9
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