Game Analysis

Cincinnati (-2.5) vs TENNESSEE

· Tennessee’s offense is gaining 6.7 yppl on first down (4th) as they’ve been great when opposing pass rushes can’t tee off on Ryan Tannehill. The Titans are averaging just 2.8 yppl on second down and a league-low 1.5 yppl on third down.

· Cincinnati’s defense ranks 26th in EPA/rush so Tennessee will focus on feeding Derrick Henry to stay out of obvious passing situations.

· Titans LT Andre Dillard has surrendered 6 sacks while no other tackles in the league have allowed more than 3 sacks and Tannehill’s blindside will be in real trouble in this game. Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson had two sacks, one hit, and seven hurries last week.

· Joe Burrow is averaging only 4.2 yppp and the calf is noticeably bothering him.

· Burrow’s lack of mobility in the pocket will be a problem on Sunday as Tennessee edge rushers Denico Autry and Arden Key have 23 pressures. Cincinnati’s tackles Orlando Brown and Jonah Williams have combined to surrender 6 quarterback hits, the most among any tackle tandem in the NFL.

· Bengals’ wide receiver Tee Higgins will be locked up by CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, who ranks 3rd in coverage grade by PFF.

· Amani Hooker returned for Tennessee’s defense after missing week 2. Hooker had an interception in week 1 and then led the Titans in tackles last game. Hooker lets Tennessee’s defense get more safeties on the field as they have a 24% Dime rate (2nd-highest).

· Cincinnati’s offense has only a 30% rush success rate (31st) and can’t force the Titans into heavier personnel.

· Ja’Marr Chase averaged 11.0 yards per route run on out-breaking routes last week and Burrow will look for the Pro Bowl WR again as Tennessee cornerback Kristian Fulton can’t guard him.

· Our model favors the Bengals by 1.0 with a predicted total of 43.9 points. Lean with Tennessee if the line gets to +3 (-110).