Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Cincinnati (+4.5) over TENNESSEE

The Titans will be the third top-10 defense in yards per play allowed that the Bengals have faced in the last four weeks and Cincinnati did not fare well is the first two games against the Steelers and Jaguars, gaining 3.5 and 4.0 yppl respectively. The Bengals offensive line has been their biggest weakness this year, as that unit has allowed a 9% sack rate (29th). The run blocking has been even worse as Cincinnati gains just 3.1 ypr, which is last in the league. I expect the Bengals offense to struggle again in this game.

Tennessee’s offense will also have a tough matchup against a Cincinnati defense ranked 3rd in yppl allowed. The Bengals are allowing just 5.4 yards per pass play (4th) and I expect the Titans to focus on their ground game. Tennessee has struggled running the ball lately – just 2.8 ypr in their last two games – but the Titans still rank 8th in yards per rush for the season. It could be a long day for the Titans offense if they can’t return to their early-season rushing success.

I think the line on this game is a bit high and Cincinnati applies to a 91-27-1 ATS contrary situation, so I will lean with the Bengals to put an end to their 3 game spread losing streak.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bengals
Titans

CIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.5 35.8
Succ Pass Plays 41.0% 39.6%
Sack Rate 9.3% 7.1%
Int Rate 3.1% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 17.1% 15.4%
Big Pass Yards 42.4% 39.3%
NYPP 6.1 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 24.8 31.3
RB YPR 2.9 3.5
Stuff Rate 26.0% 22.0%
Succ Rush Plays 31.7% 46.2%
Big Rush Yards 39.0% 28.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.0 3.7

Game

All Snaps 57.3 67.0
Early Down Succ 39.3% 43.6%
Succ Rate 36.5% 42.3%
Big Yards Rate 43.0% 36.5%
Yards Per Play 4.7 4.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.6 28.9
Run Ratio 43.2% 46.6%
Starting Field Pos 28.0 28.1
Game Control -0.1 0.1

Points 16.1 19.8

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BAL	0 – 20 L	-11.0	30.6% / 27.8%	13.9% / 5.6%	12.9% / 5.9%	4.0 / 6.2	36.4% / 45.2%	22.7% / 19.0%	3.5 / 3.7	58 / 60	34.1% / 39.1%	32.8% / 40.0%	45.7% / 32.1%	3.8 / 4.5	1.7% / 0.0%	37.9% / 70.0%	30.8 / 32.2
2	HOU	9 – 13 L	-1.4	31.6% / 40.7%	7.9% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.6 / 3.6	54.2% / 51.4%	16.7% / 31.4%	3.4 / 4.8	62 / 62	44.4% / 53.2%	40.3% / 46.8%	41.0% / 39.1%	4.8 / 4.3	1.6% / 0.0%	38.7% / 56.5%	31.2 / 24.1
3	@GB	24 – 27 L	6.6	53.3% / 43.8%	10.0% / 12.5%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.4 / 5.8	32.3% / 47.1%	29.0% / 29.4%	3.6 / 3.8	61 / 65	46.8% / 44.0%	42.6% / 44.6%	31.8% / 58.1%	5.0 / 5.3	1.6% / 0.0%	50.8% / 26.2%	26.5 / 25.8
4	@CLE	31 – 7 W	16.5	60.6% / 29.5%	9.1% / 4.5%	0.0% / 2.4%	8.0 / 3.9	40.0% / 41.2%	26.7% / 35.3%	2.9 / 2.6	63 / 61	50.0% / 32.6%	50.8% / 32.8%	43.4% / 33.0%	5.6 / 3.5	1.6% / 0.0%	47.6% / 27.9%	28.3 / 26.4
5	BUF	20 – 16 W	3.1	43.2% / 32.6%	2.7% / 14.0%	5.6% / 2.7%	8.7 / 3.2	22.6% / 45.8%	22.6% / 20.8%	2.2 / 3.4	68 / 67	37.0% / 38.8%	33.8% / 37.3%	47.7% / 22.2%	5.8 / 3.3	1.5% / 0.0%	45.6% / 35.8%	25.6 / 34.8
7	@PIT	14 – 29 L	-7.2	35.3% / 48.0%	11.8% / 0.0%	6.7% / 0.0%	3.2 / 10.7	22.2% / 37.0%	38.9% / 17.4%	4.0 / 3.4	52 / 71	32.4% / 49.1%	30.8% / 40.8%	35.6% / 56.5%	3.5 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	34.6% / 64.8%	29.1 / 29.4
8	IND	24 – 23 W	-0.5	43.8% / 39.5%	9.4% / 9.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.8 / 5.0	30.4% / 60.7%	30.4% / 10.7%	2.6 / 4.1	55 / 71	40.0% / 48.1%	38.2% / 47.9%	46.0% / 18.1%	5.1 / 4.7	3.6% / 0.0%	41.8% / 39.4%	32.7 / 31.4
9	@JAC	7 – 23 L	-7.2	30.0% / 55.3%	10.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 6.8	15.8% / 41.5%	21.1% / 12.2%	1.6 / 3.7	39 / 79	29.6% / 44.1%	23.1% / 48.1%	52.7% / 32.8%	3.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.3%	48.7% / 51.9%	20.2 / 21.1

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	OAK	16 – 26 L	-4.4	50.0% / 55.9%	2.4% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 7.4	42.9% / 50.0%	28.6% / 16.7%	4.5 / 3.7	63 / 64	46.9% / 57.1%	47.6% / 53.1%	33.1% / 26.7%	5.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 46.9%	22.4 / 29.3
2	@JAC	37 – 16 W	7.9	42.9% / 41.7%	3.6% / 5.6%	3.7% / 5.9%	7.5 / 5.9	68.4% / 64.0%	10.5% / 12.0%	4.8 / 4.0	66 / 61	64.0% / 52.1%	57.6% / 50.8%	41.6% / 23.5%	5.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.6%	57.6% / 41.0%	39.9 / 23.4
3	SEA	33 – 27 W	4.9	51.6% / 50.0%	0.0% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 7.3	44.4% / 40.9%	22.2% / 31.8%	5.4 / 3.1	67 / 72	54.9% / 51.8%	47.8% / 47.2%	44.9% / 38.8%	6.3 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	53.7% / 30.6%	29.6 / 23.3
4	@HOU	14 – 57 L	-20.6	40.9% / 58.3%	9.1% / 5.6%	20.0% / 2.9%	5.0 / 7.6	35.0% / 50.0%	15.0% / 14.3%	4.4 / 4.1	42 / 78	43.8% / 53.8%	38.1% / 53.8%	52.6% / 28.5%	4.7 / 5.7	2.4% / 0.0%	47.6% / 53.8%	21.9 / 38.0
5	@MIA	10 – 16 L	-4.2	36.8% / 25.0%	15.8% / 3.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	3.1 / 2.8	30.0% / 43.8%	45.0% / 28.1%	3.5 / 3.2	58 / 60	40.0% / 37.2%	34.5% / 35.0%	19.1% / 6.1%	3.2 / 3.0	3.4% / 1.7%	34.5% / 53.3%	25.1 / 27.0
6	IND	36 – 22 W	-1.2	57.6% / 51.4%	3.0% / 0.0%	3.1% / 0.0%	9.2 / 5.7	42.9% / 40.0%	20.0% / 20.0%	4.8 / 4.3	68 / 57	51.9% / 53.2%	50.0% / 47.4%	42.2% / 22.6%	7.0 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.8%	51.5% / 35.1%	27.4 / 26.5
7	@CLE	12 – 9 W	2.1	41.7% / 39.0%	5.6% / 4.9%	0.0% / 7.7%	5.3 / 5.3	31.3% / 25.9%	46.9% / 22.2%	2.5 / 2.5	68 / 68	38.0% / 37.3%	36.8% / 33.8%	14.5% / 23.9%	4.0 / 4.2	1.5% / 0.0%	47.1% / 39.7%	33.6 / 25.1
9	BAL	23 – 20 W	6.3	51.6% / 49.1%	9.7% / 3.6%	3.6% / 3.8%	6.0 / 4.9	36.4% / 40.9%	22.7% / 22.7%	3.3 / 3.3	53 / 77	53.8% / 47.4%	45.3% / 46.8%	49.0% / 8.2%	4.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	41.5% / 28.6%	34.6 / 24.8

Cincinnati Bengals @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Nov 12

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis